JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

Hi everyone been following this board since the channel 7 days. I really enjoy reading all of your analysis and appreciate the humor as well! I'm in Monmouth County at the shore, channel 7 is still saying 6 to 12 for us, is that accurate?

Angela0621 wrote:Hi everyone been following this board since the channel 7 days.  I really enjoy reading all of your analysis and appreciate the humor as well!  I'm in Monmouth County at the shore, channel 7 is still saying 6 to 12 for us, is that accurate?

Welcome and thanks for posting..
NO WAY !!! THEY will up it this afternoon.

RAYNO FOLDS LIKE GFS LOL. Game is on bigly!

Euro looking nice!!! Western Suffolk 1.75 inches of liquid using 15:1 ratio =26"..

Good morning. It was an interesting night of model runs, to say the least. I want to ban the word Crapola though .  
The title of this thread really hits home, as there will certainly be some heartache. The cut-off from 12"+ totals to coating to 2" will be so extreme in my opinion, especially with the deformation banding structures showing up on guidance now that the dynamics of the storm are better resolved, yet still imperfect in my opinion. The subsidence these bands will cause will likely make for asymmetric snowfall totals, and again, the extreme cut-offs. The DGZ has been well aligned in the best bending in the regions of the strongest vertical ascent. This combined with the cold temperatures has aligned for VERY GOOD snow growth in the regions most favored for heavy snowfall. I have a feeling that the west shift is not done, and coastal regions will do quite well. Inland regions though are a different story again due to the aforementioned issues.

EDIT: THE WORD IS ALREADY BANNED

sroc4 wrote:Like it or leave it my final call.  Work prevents me from participating in the discussion throughout the day with the exception of the pop in comments.  Today will likely be no different.  I know we arent quite finished yet, but I must say the hunt of this storm has been really exciting.  The ups and downs have been unreal.  I think there is obviously a consensus that has been reached for the most part with perhaps some of the finer details still yet to come.  

Yes there were several jumpers a day or two ago but I think fortunately the main core of us were able to provide enough life preservers to save the snow weenie lives of most of you.  Climb back aboard and get yourself next to the fire, and have yourselves a hot tottie and lets enjoy whatever white gold mother nature has in store for us.   

Good call. Long Island is in for a heck of a storm. My generator and snow plow are ready.

Very light snow. 26.5/24.5.

For those that get the brunt of this storm it's going to be an uncommon and severe experience. Careful with shoveling and exposure to the cold.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
323 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

DEZ004-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-282130-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0004.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Delaware Beaches-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-
Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Rehoboth Beach, Freehold, Sandy Hook,
Jackson, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City,
Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Wharton State Forest
323 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
8 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...The coastal counties of New Jersey, and coastal sections
of Sussex County in Delaware.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas
of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty
winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin on Friday
evening, with snow becoming heavy after midnight. The most
likely time for blizzard conditions is late Friday night through
midday Saturday. Blizzard conditions are primarily expected at
or within a few miles from the coast. Snow will wind down
Saturday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Light snow falling here for the past 45 minutes or so.  Everything is covered with a light dusting.  Very pretty to watch snow falling even if we don’t get the big amounts here. Yes, I know the storm in question has not started yet.

Mood flakes flying in midtown this morning. These are the winter events we live for. And a Friday / Saturday? We all deserve to be drinking our favorite beverages tonight watching this all play out.

Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL

aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL

Probably wait till the evening shift Im guessing??

aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL

Maybe they don’t want to jinx it. Lol

mmanisca wrote:

aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL

Probably wait till the evening shift Im guessing??

In reading the 6:00 am discussion they said eastern Long Island could see that criteria. But we shall see in the next update.

mmanisca wrote:

aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL

Probably wait till the evening shift Im guessing??

hopefully after a full day of runs enough data will show further west adjustments

Based on where I'm seeing the most intensification and where the ULL may close off this area may be in for a surprise or two with snowfall. It will depend on how close and how quickly it deepens.

aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL

You said the B word, so now you won't get it!

My neighbor just texted me. Outdoor fire pit, cigars, and adult beverages tonight at 9pm. Doesn’t get any better than that.

heehaw453 wrote:Based on where I'm seeing the most intensification and where the ULL may close off this area may be in for a surprise or two with snowfall. It will depend on how close and how quickly it deepens.

I think that area may be in for a surprise but not a good one based on my previous discussion on the location of intense banding being focused in coastal regions. Given the already dry environment in western regions, any additional subsidence and forcing that destroys snow growth will lead to very very intense cut-offs. I highly doubt that area circled sees more than 6 inches of snowfall.

heehaw453 wrote:Based on where I'm seeing the most intensification and where the ULL may close off this area may be in for a surprise or two with snowfall. It will depend on how close and how quickly it deepens.

Oh man that 29 inches (I know its the K word) is literally 30 miles away rb I think we can easily get that push into NYC, and hochul is go have a handful to deal with as well as the new mayor, his 1st snowstorm. Dont get me wrong as the Euro sits it is still decent for NYC. and immediate surrounding areas, I expect to see 12z models especially NAM show that 30 mile push maybe more west, now is the LP shifting or just the expansion of the snowfall field?

Since Heehaw started this thread at 7:12pm last night it’s been viewed almost 11,000 times. Impressive for twelve hours. Is there snow in the forecast?

Wrell yes yes it is, and it is now, had went back to bed and it is a very light fine snow now, could barely see it but have a light coating.

sroc4 wrote:My neighbor just texted me. Outdoor fire pit, cigars, and adult beverages tonight at 9pm. Doesn’t get any better than that.

What about naked snow angels?

heehaw453 wrote:Based on where I'm seeing the most intensification and where the ULL may close off this area may be in for a surprise or two with snowfall. It will depend on how close and how quickly it deepens.

Hey that's me!

Quietace wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Based on where I'm seeing the most intensification and where the ULL may close off this area may be in for a surprise or two with snowfall. It will depend on how close and how quickly it deepens.

I think that area may be in for a surprise but not a good one based on my previous discussion on the location of intense banding being focused in coastal regions. Given the already dry environment in western regions, any additional subsidence and forcing that destroys snow growth will lead to very very intense cut-offs. I highly doubt that area circled sees more than 6 inches of snowfall.

That's true. Boxing Day kind played out that way. More meridional mesoscale banding.

12z NAM starts soon

Godzilla mode activated

Observations thread created

2nd call snow map later today

Life. Is. Good!

SREFs bring Godzilla to life