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JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

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Post by Angela0621 Fri Jan 28, 2022 6:43 am

Hi everyone been following this board since the channel 7 days. I really enjoy reading all of your analysis and appreciate the humor as well! I'm in Monmouth County at the shore, channel 7 is still saying 6 to 12 for us, is that accurate?

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:04 am

Angela0621 wrote:Hi everyone been following this board since the channel 7 days.  I really enjoy reading all of your analysis and appreciate the humor as well!  I'm in Monmouth County at the shore, channel 7 is still saying 6 to 12 for us, is that accurate?


Welcome and thanks for posting..
NO WAY !!! THEY will up it this afternoon.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:05 am

RAYNO FOLDS LIKE GFS LOL. Game is on bigly!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by mmanisca Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:08 am

Euro looking nice!!! Western Suffolk 1.75 inches of liquid using 15:1 ratio =26"..
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Post by Quietace Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:09 am

Good morning. It was an interesting night of model runs, to say the least. I want to ban the word Crapola though Smile.  
The title of this thread really hits home, as there will certainly be some heartache. The cut-off from 12"+ totals to coating to 2" will be so extreme in my opinion, especially with the deformation banding structures showing up on guidance now that the dynamics of the storm are better resolved, yet still imperfect in my opinion. The subsidence these bands will cause will likely make for asymmetric snowfall totals, and again, the extreme cut-offs. The DGZ has been well aligned in the best bending in the regions of the strongest vertical ascent. This combined with the cold temperatures has aligned for VERY GOOD snow growth in the regions most favored for heavy snowfall. I have a feeling that the west shift is not done, and coastal regions will do quite well. Inland regions though are a different story again due to the aforementioned issues.

EDIT: THE WORD IS ALREADY BANNED Very Happy
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Post by Joe Snow Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:10 am

sroc4 wrote:Like it or leave it my final call.  Work prevents me from participating in the discussion throughout the day with the exception of the pop in comments.  Today will likely be no different.  I know we arent quite finished yet, but I must say the hunt of this storm has been really exciting.  The ups and downs have been unreal.  I think there is obviously a consensus that has been reached for the most part with perhaps some of the finer details still yet to come.  

Yes there were several jumpers a day or two ago but I think fortunately the main core of us were able to provide enough life preservers to save the snow weenie lives of most of you.  Climb back aboard and get yourself next to the fire, and have yourselves a hot tottie and lets enjoy whatever white gold mother nature has in store for us.   

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 11 When-mom-makes-you-wear-a-lifevest_VjOoj5y
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 11 2b6d0964c061267482a15b18039ef62c
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 11 Giphy
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 11 Snow_m16


Good call. Long Island is in for a heck of a storm. My generator and snow plow are ready.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:11 am

Very light snow. 26.5/24.5.

For those that get the brunt of this storm it's going to be an uncommon and severe experience. Careful with shoveling and exposure to the cold.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:12 am



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
323 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

DEZ004-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-282130-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0004.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Delaware Beaches-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-
Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Rehoboth Beach, Freehold, Sandy Hook,
Jackson, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City,
Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Wharton State Forest
323 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
8 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...The coastal counties of New Jersey, and coastal sections
of Sussex County in Delaware.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas
of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty
winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin on Friday
evening, with snow becoming heavy after midnight. The most
likely time for blizzard conditions is late Friday night through
midday Saturday. Blizzard conditions are primarily expected at
or within a few miles from the coast. Snow will wind down
Saturday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

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Post by brownie Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:33 am

Light snow falling here for the past 45 minutes or so.  Everything is covered with a light dusting.  Very pretty to watch snow falling even if we don’t get the big amounts here. Yes, I know the storm in question has not started yet.

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Post by crippo84 Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:34 am

Mood flakes flying in midtown this morning. These are the winter events we live for. And a Friday / Saturday? We all deserve to be drinking our favorite beverages tonight watching this all play out.
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:35 am

Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL
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Post by mmanisca Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:38 am

aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL

Probably wait till the evening shift Im guessing??
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Post by Scullybutcher Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:39 am

aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL


Maybe they don’t want to jinx it. Lol
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Post by Joe Snow Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:42 am

mmanisca wrote:
aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL

Probably wait till the evening shift Im guessing??

In reading the 6:00 am discussion they said eastern Long Island could see that criteria. But we shall see in the next update.
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Post by RJB8525 Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:44 am

mmanisca wrote:
aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL

Probably wait till the evening shift Im guessing??

hopefully after a full day of runs enough data will show further west adjustments
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:45 am

Based on where I'm seeing the most intensification and where the ULL may close off this area may be in for a surprise or two with snowfall. It will depend on how close and how quickly it deepens.
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 11 Snowto10

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:48 am

aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL

You said the B word, so now you won't get it! geek

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Snowfall winter of 2022-2023  1.5"  

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:50 am

My neighbor just texted me. Outdoor fire pit, cigars, and adult beverages tonight at 9pm. Doesn’t get any better than that.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Quietace Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:52 am

heehaw453 wrote:Based on where I'm seeing the most intensification and where the ULL may close off this area may be in for a surprise or two with snowfall. It will depend on how close and how quickly it deepens.
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 11 Snowto10
I think that area may be in for a surprise but not a good one based on my previous discussion on the location of intense banding being focused in coastal regions. Given the already dry environment in western regions, any additional subsidence and forcing that destroys snow growth will lead to very very intense cut-offs. I highly doubt that area circled sees more than 6 inches of snowfall.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:58 am

heehaw453 wrote:Based on where I'm seeing the most intensification and where the ULL may close off this area may be in for a surprise or two with snowfall. It will depend on how close and how quickly it deepens.
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 11 Snowto10
Oh man that 29 inches (I know its the K word) is literally 30 miles away rb I think we can easily get that push into NYC, and hochul is go have a handful to deal with as well as the new mayor, his 1st snowstorm. Dont get me wrong as the Euro sits it is still decent for NYC. and immediate surrounding areas, I expect to see 12z models especially NAM show that 30 mile push maybe more west, now is the LP shifting or just the expansion of the snowfall field?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:00 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:00 am

Since Heehaw started this thread at 7:12pm last night it’s been viewed almost 11,000 times. Impressive for twelve hours. Is there snow in the forecast?

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:01 am

Wrell yes yes it is, and it is now, had went back to bed and it is a very light fine snow now, could barely see it but have a light coating.
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Post by Scullybutcher Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:01 am

sroc4 wrote:My neighbor just texted me. Outdoor fire pit, cigars, and adult beverages tonight at 9pm. Doesn’t get any better than that.

What about naked snow angels?
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:02 am

heehaw453 wrote:Based on where I'm seeing the most intensification and where the ULL may close off this area may be in for a surprise or two with snowfall. It will depend on how close and how quickly it deepens.
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 11 Snowto10

Hey that's me!
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:09 am

Quietace wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Based on where I'm seeing the most intensification and where the ULL may close off this area may be in for a surprise or two with snowfall. It will depend on how close and how quickly it deepens.
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 11 Snowto10
I think that area may be in for a surprise but not a good one based on my previous discussion on the location of intense banding being focused in coastal regions. Given the already dry environment in western regions, any additional subsidence and forcing that destroys snow growth will lead to very very intense cut-offs. I highly doubt that area circled sees more than 6 inches of snowfall.

That's true. Boxing Day kind played out that way. More meridional mesoscale banding.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:44 am

12z NAM starts soon

Godzilla mode activated

Observations thread created

2nd call snow map later today

Life. Is. Good!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:46 am

SREFs bring Godzilla to life

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 11 61f3f098439d6-thumb-png-df2c8058183e8e462c11379ba8e8f7a8

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