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JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

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JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 21 Empty Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
richb521 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Worried this may be our track.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 21 D51bcf10

What would pull the storm from almost straight northward to northeast like that?
look at the way the isobars point due north then NE, thats why I believe. That track would really have almost no impacts.

That was what I was doing, but it likely isnt correct. Im inferring that once it hits Hat the pressure falls run NE instead of N south of Hat. But I dont thing the isobar kinks N of Hat are true pressure falls.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Taffy Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:02 pm

I've been cut back to 24" but we are having blizzard conditions for 24 hours in my area starting around midnight I think it will be a bit later, more like very early morning. Reports of thundersnow happening as well. The swath that was going to produce 30" is now just South of me. I'll measure the total imby and take some photos I can post later.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:06 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Worried this may be our track.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 21 D51bcf10

RGEM would agree with you...
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 21 27283410
oy, not a good look, lets hope for real time changes west, but the easterm lie cannot be completely denied. I think rb jumped ship cuz he was on that it would go west now not looking so likely.

You’ll know if I abandon ship lol and as co-captain, I think it’s unwritten maritime law that I go down with said ship if it starts taking in water aha I’ve been busy doing things since today is actually a day off from work for me, so that’s why I went quiet for a bit.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:09 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
richb521 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Worried this may be our track.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 21 D51bcf10

What would pull the storm from almost straight northward to northeast like that?
look at the way the isobars point due north then NE, thats why I believe. That track would really have almost no impacts.

That was what I was doing, but it likely isnt correct.  Im inferring that once it hits Hat the pressure falls run NE instead of N south of Hat.  But I dont thing the isobar kinks N of Hat are true pressure falls.  

Admittedly, this is just as plausible, and has most model support. A blend where that coastal front gets drawn partially northward, but not entirely, is also plausible, which would draw the system closer, but not as close as my ideas. No matter what, as much as I want the western-most option to verify (since it’s what I believe), I’m just enjoying the opportunity to learn Smile

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:13 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
richb521 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Worried this may be our track.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 21 D51bcf10

What would pull the storm from almost straight northward to northeast like that?
look at the way the isobars point due north then NE, thats why I believe. That track would really have almost no impacts.

That was what I was doing, but it likely isnt correct.  Im inferring that once it hits Hat the pressure falls run NE instead of N south of Hat.  But I dont thing the isobar kinks N of Hat are true pressure falls.  
you said your worried thats our track which lead me to believe you thought that was true, glad you think it may not be, so you think those may straighten to northerly?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:17 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Days and hours of tracking - and I've literally sweated through 10 t shirts - have brought us to a point where much uncertainty still lies. The trough as observed looks better than modeled. The surface low as observed looks better than modeled. Yet, our models believe the area will be scraped, outside of Jersey Shore and Long Island, with fairly limited impact compared to what models were showing yesterday.

I am going to trust my instincts here and go by what many have been saying: models are struggling and current observations are painting a more impactful storm. This is my final call snow map.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 21 01-28-Final-Call

Main differences from my 1st call:
*18"+ zone shrunk
*12-18" zone expanded more west thru Long Island and down the Jersey Shore
*6-12 instead of 8-12 to account for potential cut-off's WNW of heaviest snow axis

Speaking, below is a look at where the EURO and NAM show 700mb lift and heavier snow rates.

The EURO keeps the best lift across east end of LI into southeastern New England.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 21 Ecmwf_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_9

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 21 Ecmwf_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_10

The NAM is quite similar, as the 700mb low passes east of Long Island.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 21 Namconus_z700_vort_neus_24

A very difficult forecast that is guaranteed to bust in some places. We are past the point of model watching and in nowcast mode. However, I will be curious to see the 00z NAM tonight and see if it latches onto a last minute west trend, as is my belief.

Great job, Frank, and to everybody who’s made a map!! The struggle is all part of the love and fun haha

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Post by crippo84 Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
richb521 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Worried this may be our track.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 21 D51bcf10

What would pull the storm from almost straight northward to northeast like that?
look at the way the isobars point due north then NE, thats why I believe. That track would really have almost no impacts.

That was what I was doing, but it likely isnt correct.  Im inferring that once it hits Hat the pressure falls run NE instead of N south of Hat.  But I dont thing the isobar kinks N of Hat are true pressure falls.  
you said your worried thats our track which lead me to believe you thought that was true, glad you think it may not be, so you think those may straighten to northerly?

You're gonna give yourself a seizure brother! It's gonna snow - we'll see just how much!
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