JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

18Z Euro
I hope it's appreciated how close this truly is and 18Z is better than 12Z.  It's literally 1-2 hour earlier close off would do it for I95.  You will also notice more consolidation on the close off.  This may get 'er done just yet.

Current mood:

https://twitter.com/miketrout/status/1486854871743610881?s=21

And to think that 24 hours ago, folks were jumping off the bridge. Incredible!

Continue storm discussions here. We have critical 00z runs tonight, which I think will determine how real this west trend is. Another bump west, and the one foot snowfall amounts would move into the NYC area including parts of northern NJ. Not only that, but there’s a chance the west trend lasts all the way to tomorrow’s 12z runs which would really make things interesting. On the other hand, if majority of tonight’s guidance holds serve, or trend back east, I think it means there’s no time left for any western track on the models so we’ll have to believe the heaviest snow totals will stay east of NYC into southern New England. Maybe we are surprised with how real time observations come in and the storm does something models did not catch. Possible considering it’s complexity.

Zhukov1945 wrote:
Current mood:

https://twitter.com/miketrout/status/1486854871743610881?s=21

He’s the man hahaha

Frank_Wx wrote:Continue storm discussions here. We have critical 00z runs tonight, which I think will determine how real this west trend is. Another bump west, and the one foot snowfall amounts would move into the NYC area including parts of northern NJ. Not only that, but there’s a chance the west trend lasts all the way to tomorrow’s 12z runs which would really make things interesting. On the other hand, if majority of tonight’s guidance holds serve, or trend back east, I think it means there’s no time left for any western track on the models so we’ll have to believe the heaviest snow totals will stay east of NYC into southern New England. Maybe we are surprised with how real time observations come in and the storm does something models did not catch. Possible considering it’s complexity.

If that bump west you mentioned would give NYC area one foot totals, how would that affect us in the Philadelphia vicinity?

uanswer2me wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Continue storm discussions here. We have critical 00z runs tonight, which I think will determine how real this west trend is. Another bump west, and the one foot snowfall amounts would move into the NYC area including parts of northern NJ. Not only that, but there’s a chance the west trend lasts all the way to tomorrow’s 12z runs which would really make things interesting. On the other hand, if majority of tonight’s guidance holds serve, or trend back east, I think it means there’s no time left for any western track on the models so we’ll have to believe the heaviest snow totals will stay east of NYC into southern New England. Maybe we are surprised with how real time observations come in and the storm does something models did not catch. Possible considering it’s complexity.

If that bump west you mentioned would give NYC area one foot totals, how would that affect us in the Philadelphia vicinity?

Unfortunately, you'd still have a shitty football team,  the bump west can't help that much.   

Frank_Wx wrote:Continue storm discussions here. We have critical 00z runs tonight, which I think will determine how real this west trend is. Another bump west, and the one foot snowfall amounts would move into the NYC area including parts of northern NJ. Not only that, but there’s a chance the west trend lasts all the way to tomorrow’s 12z runs which would really make things interesting. On the other hand, if majority of tonight’s guidance holds serve, or trend back east, I think it means there’s no time left for any western track on the models so we’ll have to believe the heaviest snow totals will stay east of NYC into southern New England. Maybe we are surprised with how real time observations come in and the storm does something models did not catch. Possible considering it’s complexity.

Go be a exciting night, i might just have to stick around for Euro, or take a nap and get up. Though if all the other models nod to the euro ill look in am. this is so interesting, someone just said to me seems like 50 yrs ago weather forecasting was better if they said we getting 10 inches thats what we got and the knew many days ahead of time. i do vaguly remember times like that. maybe its that storms are on steroids now and ones like this are rare.

Okay my wife was watching news 12(2nd worst weather forecasting) and they are going by the GRAF model? WTF is that?! And it shows a miss lol, the lady who i have no clue who she is said she doesnt know basically.

I ain't seeing snow so send it out to sea! With that out of the way here's hoping the recon data gives it enough west to give me something!

jmanley32 wrote:Okay my wife was watching news 12(2nd worst weather forecasting) and they are going by the GRAF model? WTF is that?! And it shows a miss lol, the lady who i have no clue who she is said she doesnt know basically.

“In the tests we ran, our model is around 30% more accurate (than Indian system) and we have so far designed to issue 12 million pieces of forecast information through IBM GRAF, which will improve the forecast quality massively in India,” Cameron said.Dec 31, 2019


Take that how you want.

Keep trending west !!!! @JimCantore @dmacbolts10 @MikeMasco pic.twitter.com/YRgMdFesDf

— Mike Trout (@MikeTrout) January 28, 2022

What a shift by the EURO. This is for real.
Westward HO!

EPS MAKES ANOTHER MOVE NW !!!

uanswer2me wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Okay my wife was watching news 12(2nd worst weather forecasting) and they are going by the GRAF model? WTF is that?! And it shows a miss lol, the lady who i have no clue who she is said she doesnt know basically.

“In the tests we ran, our model is around 30% more accurate (than Indian system) and we have so far designed to issue 12 million pieces of forecast information through IBM GRAF, which will improve the forecast quality massively in India,” Cameron said.Dec 31, 2019


Take that how you want.

lol wth its a india model? yeah ok im switching to verizon i cannot support such a news channel anymore

amugs wrote:EPS MAKES ANOTHER MOVE NW !!!

WOW thats a massive move puts entire areas in new snow totals. this might not be done either, can we get bostons frankzilla here lol, prolly not but would be amazing if pulled off somehow. also as more believable precip field is more expansive and areas of totals expanded too.

Me likey.  Consolidation on the EPS.

This is telling a tale folks.

My goodness.

18z EPS now has me 20 miles west of 10-12 and about 50 from 12-15, but this is the EPS, so please someone post the indies!! There must be more massive hits than 12z. and some of those were roids.

SoulSingMG wrote:My goodness.  

soul ready for your blizzard watch/warning? I bet you anything they are coming. If that large western batvch verify any of them we are back in roid territory.

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:My goodness.  

soul ready for your blizzard watch/warning? I bet you anything they are coming.

Well, they’ve done away with Blizzard Watches at the National Weather Service. BUT I am certainly ALWAYS ready for a Blizzard Warning. ;-)

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:My goodness.  

soul ready for your blizzard watch/warning? I bet you anything they are coming. If that large western batvch verify any of them we are back in roid territory.

It's getting that 36 hours ago look again.

watch this come so far west that cape cod mixes lol