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JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:35 pm

aiannone wrote:18z HRRR
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Snku_a20

10:1
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Sn10_a52
all those insane totals keep going down and down, we may end up having a area wide mothrazilla if this keeps up and nothing for N/W folks. How crazy this is.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:39 pm

HRRR picking up on the true placement of the LP?? Here is its newest QPF -

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 2135014360_18zHRRR!.png.3f655b050760a1834cde56808062bb13

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Post by bloc1357 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:40 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:18z HRRR
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Snku_a20

10:1
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Sn10_a52
all those insane totals keep going down and down, we may end up having a area wide mothrazilla if this keeps up and nothing for N/W folks. How crazy this is.

In my mind those "insane totals" were just that "insane totals" - I get what models were/are saying but did anyone really think we were ever going to get full blown everyone on this forum 24"-36" totals area wide? I think that is just unrealistic from the start...but that's just my 2 cents. I could be wrong

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:42 pm

bloc1357 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:18z HRRR
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Snku_a20

10:1
JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Sn10_a52
all those insane totals keep going down and down, we may end up having a area wide mothrazilla if this keeps up and nothing for N/W folks. How crazy this is.

In my mind those "insane totals" were just that "insane totals" - I get what models were/are saying but did anyone really think we were ever going to get full blown everyone on this forum 24"-36" totals area wide?  I think that is just unrealistic from the start...but that's just my 2 cents.  I could be wrong
Oh no you mistook my statement, i know they were not going to happen but I did not think it would go from frankzilla to roidzilla to maybe godzilla maybe not. It is all going to be about ratios, if we do not get good ratios this is going to be a big dissapointment for most except LI and southern jersey.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:44 pm

phil155 wrote:
amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
rb924119 wrote:We should be close to initiating the phasing process. Certainly within the next hour or two max based on what I’m seeing on satellite..

Is that still a bit early in your calculations? Or about right versus the models?

Significantly early, in my opinion.

Let's GOOOOOO THEN!!!

Would this make a more NW track more likely and thus likely higher snow totals into NJ and the I95

Yes, if correct.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:44 pm

Earlier deepening - let see what it can do upstream

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Image.png.282d17f0461f3ab5ae1a989cfd1b7345


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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:46 pm

s/s energy getting pulled into the trough.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Ssener10

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:47 pm

amugs wrote:Earlier deepening - let see what it can do upstream

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Image.png.282d17f0461f3ab5ae1a989cfd1b7345


It’s funny you posted this, because I’ve been waiting for the non-opaque SPC map to come out - im pretty sure we are in the process of phasing, but it’s hard to see lol

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:49 pm

rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:Earlier deepening - let see what it can do upstream

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Image.png.282d17f0461f3ab5ae1a989cfd1b7345


It’s funny you posted this, because I’ve been waiting for the non-opaque SPC map to come out - im pretty sure we are in the process of phasing, but it’s hard to see lol
what step do we want to have happen 3 hrs earlier that Frank was talking about and with these earlier nowcast observations will that allow for it to happen?
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Post by Spacemanspiff99 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:52 pm

Hello guys,

Longtime lurker (from when you guys were tracking Sandy I believe). Just wanted to pop in and say thanks, I check these for all the storms coming. I'm down in Little Egg, and I'll post here and there once we start.

Hope everyone gets that white gold!

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:54 pm

Very interesting points made here


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Post by Grselig Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:55 pm

Spacemanspiff99 wrote:Hello guys,

Longtime lurker (from when you guys were tracking Sandy I believe). Just wanted to pop in and say thanks, I check these for all the storms coming. I'm down in Little Egg, and I'll post here and there once we start.

Hope everyone gets that white gold!

Long live Calvin
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:56 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:Earlier deepening - let see what it can do upstream

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Image.png.282d17f0461f3ab5ae1a989cfd1b7345


It’s funny you posted this, because I’ve been waiting for the non-opaque SPC map to come out - im pretty sure we are in the process of phasing, but it’s hard to see lol
what step do we want to have happen 3 hrs earlier that Frank was talking about and with these earlier nowcast observations will that allow for it to happen?

We want the 500MB ULL to close off earlier like down by OC MD would be great if not a tick further S. This would allow the SLP to get more west and bring the deform bands/CCB over the entire region - heaviest axis of snow.


Last edited by amugs on Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:57 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:57 pm

Just looking at this surface map.  Things look north.  Isobars are pointing north which to me means a solid western ridge with enough space to allow for up rather than more out.  I'm not going to ignore modelling but doesn't at least look like it'll pull further east than progged.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Surfac25

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:57 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:Earlier deepening - let see what it can do upstream

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Image.png.282d17f0461f3ab5ae1a989cfd1b7345


It’s funny you posted this, because I’ve been waiting for the non-opaque SPC map to come out - im pretty sure we are in the process of phasing, but it’s hard to see lol
what step do we want to have happen 3 hrs earlier that Frank was talking about and with these earlier nowcast observations will that allow for it to happen?

We want this to close off early. Earlier maturation/phasing would help us achieve this.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:58 pm

Spacemanspiff99 wrote:Hello guys,

Longtime lurker (from when you guys were tracking Sandy I believe). Just wanted to pop in and say thanks, I check these for all the storms coming. I'm down in Little Egg, and I'll post here and there once we start.

Hope everyone gets that white gold!

And then there were three from south Jersey!! Welcome, Spaceman!!


Last edited by rb924119 on Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:59 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by bloc1357 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:59 pm

amugs wrote:Very interesting points made here


Damn....if you watch that clip LI gets clobbered with that band!

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Post by dsix85 Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:59 pm

Hopefully jman didn't jump off the Driscoll Bridge yet and read this good update.

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:02 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Just looking at this surface map.  Things look north.  Isobars are pointing north which to me means a solid western ridge with enough space to allow for up rather than more out.  I'm not going to ignore modelling but doesn't at least look like it'll pull further east than progged.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Surfac25

West you mean?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:07 pm

dsix85 wrote:Hopefully jman didn't jump off the Driscoll Bridge yet and read this good update.
I just saw the post about HRRR deformation and that dark area goes right over me with plenty of room for error to east and west, no I am not jumping anywhere. Hopefully for joy at some pt. Working still, and had deal with crisis, a client of mine withnessed the student from new rochelle high school shortly after getting shot along with her 7 and 9 yo. sorry i know banter. I will be fully engaged after 5 or 6.


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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:07 pm

aiannone wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Just looking at this surface map.  Things look north.  Isobars are pointing north which to me means a solid western ridge with enough space to allow for up rather than more out.  I'm not going to ignore modelling but doesn't at least look like it'll pull further east than progged.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Surfac25

West you mean?

Basically I mean I don't think it's going to get worse than 12Z delineated based on this. Hopefully better.

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Post by dsix85 Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:11 pm

Is it fair to say where the heaviest axis of snow sets up you can put out 4"/hr rates?

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:12 pm

NAM 18Z basically closed off a bit later than 12Z. I'd like to see that circle nice and round at closer to the coast. It's hard ignore NAM with EC storm at 18 hours out.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Nam18z10

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:13 pm

Phasing process underway, as seen by the merger of the two wind fields at the base of the trough (circled in red). Note your highest wind speeds (purple) downstream of the trough axis. Those speeds have notably increased since two hours ago. The fuse it lit, folks.

JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 6ff47e10



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Post by emokid51783 Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:14 pm

dsix85 wrote:Is it fair to say where the heaviest axis of snow sets up you can put out 4"/hr rates?
NYC west may get clobbered by that deformation band

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