JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

This is all so frustrating, at this point I am in rays and mugs camp, not looking at anymore models only what you guys post. So far i am not hearing great things for NYC area but hopefully we can get well more than 6 inches.

18z HRRR


10:1

aiannone wrote:18z HRRR


10:1

all those insane totals keep going down and down, we may end up having a area wide mothrazilla if this keeps up and nothing for N/W folks. How crazy this is.

HRRR picking up on the true placement of the LP?? Here is its newest QPF -

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:18z HRRR


10:1

all those insane totals keep going down and down, we may end up having a area wide mothrazilla if this keeps up and nothing for N/W folks. How crazy this is.

In my mind those "insane totals" were just that "insane totals" - I get what models were/are saying but did anyone really think we were ever going to get full blown everyone on this forum 24"-36" totals area wide? I think that is just unrealistic from the start...but that's just my 2 cents. I could be wrong

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:18z HRRR


10:1

all those insane totals keep going down and down, we may end up having a area wide mothrazilla if this keeps up and nothing for N/W folks. How crazy this is.

In my mind those "insane totals" were just that "insane totals" - I get what models were/are saying but did anyone really think we were ever going to get full blown everyone on this forum 24"-36" totals area wide?  I think that is just unrealistic from the start...but that's just my 2 cents.  I could be wrong

Oh no you mistook my statement, i know they were not going to happen but I did not think it would go from frankzilla to roidzilla to maybe godzilla maybe not. It is all going to be about ratios, if we do not get good ratios this is going to be a big dissapointment for most except LI and southern jersey.

phil155 wrote:

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

rb924119 wrote:We should be close to initiating the phasing process. Certainly within the next hour or two max based on what I’m seeing on satellite..

Is that still a bit early in your calculations? Or about right versus the models?

Significantly early, in my opinion.

Let's GOOOOOO THEN!!!

Would this make a more NW track more likely and thus likely higher snow totals into NJ and the I95

Yes, if correct.

Earlier deepening - let see what it can do upstream

s/s energy getting pulled into the trough.

amugs wrote:Earlier deepening - let see what it can do upstream

It’s funny you posted this, because I’ve been waiting for the non-opaque SPC map to come out - im pretty sure we are in the process of phasing, but it’s hard to see lol

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:Earlier deepening - let see what it can do upstream

It’s funny you posted this, because I’ve been waiting for the non-opaque SPC map to come out - im pretty sure we are in the process of phasing, but it’s hard to see lol

what step do we want to have happen 3 hrs earlier that Frank was talking about and with these earlier nowcast observations will that allow for it to happen?

Hello guys,

Longtime lurker (from when you guys were tracking Sandy I believe). Just wanted to pop in and say thanks, I check these for all the storms coming. I'm down in Little Egg, and I'll post here and there once we start.

Hope everyone gets that white gold!

Very interesting points made here

TRACKING THE DEFORMATION ZONE..
The HRRR is what I will following before and after the "Phase" As it stands now, the intense upward motion will run over NJ moving towards the CT River Valley.. There is a "dry slot" concern for RI/Cape Cod that will need to be watch. pic.twitter.com/ajZerU3lvL

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 28, 2022

Spacemanspiff99 wrote:Hello guys,

Longtime lurker (from when you guys were tracking Sandy I believe). Just wanted to pop in and say thanks, I check these for all the storms coming. I'm down in Little Egg, and I'll post here and there once we start.

Hope everyone gets that white gold!

Long live Calvin

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:Earlier deepening - let see what it can do upstream

It’s funny you posted this, because I’ve been waiting for the non-opaque SPC map to come out - im pretty sure we are in the process of phasing, but it’s hard to see lol

what step do we want to have happen 3 hrs earlier that Frank was talking about and with these earlier nowcast observations will that allow for it to happen?

We want the 500MB ULL to close off earlier like down by OC MD would be great if not a tick further S. This would allow the SLP to get more west and bring the deform bands/CCB over the entire region - heaviest axis of snow.

Just looking at this surface map.  Things look north.  Isobars are pointing north which to me means a solid western ridge with enough space to allow for up rather than more out.  I'm not going to ignore modelling but doesn't at least look like it'll pull further east than progged.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:Earlier deepening - let see what it can do upstream

It’s funny you posted this, because I’ve been waiting for the non-opaque SPC map to come out - im pretty sure we are in the process of phasing, but it’s hard to see lol

what step do we want to have happen 3 hrs earlier that Frank was talking about and with these earlier nowcast observations will that allow for it to happen?

We want this to close off early. Earlier maturation/phasing would help us achieve this.

Spacemanspiff99 wrote:Hello guys,

Longtime lurker (from when you guys were tracking Sandy I believe). Just wanted to pop in and say thanks, I check these for all the storms coming. I'm down in Little Egg, and I'll post here and there once we start.

Hope everyone gets that white gold!

And then there were three from south Jersey!! Welcome, Spaceman!!

amugs wrote:Very interesting points made here

TRACKING THE DEFORMATION ZONE..
The HRRR is what I will following before and after the "Phase" As it stands now, the intense upward motion will run over NJ moving towards the CT River Valley.. There is a "dry slot" concern for RI/Cape Cod that will need to be watch. pic.twitter.com/ajZerU3lvL

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 28, 2022

Damn....if you watch that clip LI gets clobbered with that band!

Hopefully jman didn't jump off the Driscoll Bridge yet and read this good update.

heehaw453 wrote:Just looking at this surface map.  Things look north.  Isobars are pointing north which to me means a solid western ridge with enough space to allow for up rather than more out.  I'm not going to ignore modelling but doesn't at least look like it'll pull further east than progged.

West you mean?

dsix85 wrote:Hopefully jman didn't jump off the Driscoll Bridge yet and read this good update.

I just saw the post about HRRR deformation and that dark area goes right over me with plenty of room for error to east and west, no I am not jumping anywhere. Hopefully for joy at some pt. Working still, and had deal with crisis, a client of mine withnessed the student from new rochelle high school shortly after getting shot along with her 7 and 9 yo. sorry i know banter. I will be fully engaged after 5 or 6.

aiannone wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Just looking at this surface map.  Things look north.  Isobars are pointing north which to me means a solid western ridge with enough space to allow for up rather than more out.  I'm not going to ignore modelling but doesn't at least look like it'll pull further east than progged.

West you mean?

Basically I mean I don't think it's going to get worse than 12Z delineated based on this. Hopefully better.

Is it fair to say where the heaviest axis of snow sets up you can put out 4"/hr rates?

NAM 18Z basically closed off a bit later than 12Z. I'd like to see that circle nice and round at closer to the coast. It's hard ignore NAM with EC storm at 18 hours out.

Phasing process underway, as seen by the merger of the two wind fields at the base of the trough (circled in red). Note your highest wind speeds (purple) downstream of the trough axis. Those speeds have notably increased since two hours ago. The fuse it lit, folks.

dsix85 wrote:Is it fair to say where the heaviest axis of snow sets up you can put out 4"/hr rates?

NYC west may get clobbered by that deformation band