March 2022 Obs & Discussions

Ask and ye shall receive

Got down to 10* by me last night. BRRR! Buddy up in Saranac Lake hit............. -25!!!!!!!!!

Fog and cold rain on top of Kilauea, chilly 53* I feel your pain

Time to pay attention to wed am.

sroc4 wrote:Time to pay attention to wed am.

HERE LOL

sroc4 wrote:Time to pay attention to wed am.

Looks like a car topper

Don't write off this weekend. Nice shift east on the 6z runs.

Snow88 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Time to pay attention to wed am.

Looks like a car topper

Don't write off this weekend.  Nice shift east on the 6z runs.

Love the description Tony. lol

Just wish we had these lp transfers like this one in February     It will snow and probably at a good clip. How far north the heavier rates get is debatable as is the marginal surface temps to work with.  If this was temps in the mid 20's then much more excitement.

Along and NW of I-95 1-3" seems reasonable to me on the colder surfaces.  I would wait another 3 or 4 model cycles before I trust the NAM's snow output.

heehaw453 wrote:Just wish we had these lp transfers like this one in February     It will snow and probably at a good clip. How far north the heavier rates get is debatable as is the marginal surface temps to work with.  If this was temps in the mid 20's then much more excitement.

Along and NW of I-95 1-3" seems reasonable to me on the colder surfaces.  I would wait another 3 or 4 model cycles before I trust the NAM's snow output.

Agreed.  just briefly looking at things like DP at the onset of the precip through the heaviest precip they are around 30.  If this is true then where the heaviest axis ends up could snow at a good clip for a few hrs negating some of the marginal temp issues while its falling.  Trends on the GFS and euro has def to increase total QPF as well.  Could be a sneaky little sneaker system for a narrow band along the I-95

3K NAM even more amped and aggressive with it

I admit I've been sleeping on this (spent too much time drinking and not enough looking at the models this weekend. The drinking part is ok but it really should be done responsibly which is to say in conjunction with keeping an eye on the models).

This now has my attention.

NAM is aggressive on this. Which I like, because I've found the NAM to handle storms pretty good this winter.

If we could get that Saturday storm bumped to the east we might have two shots at snow this week.

Saturday is about the SE ridge as it has been since beginning of February.  It's a nice PNA as shown on the GEFS so i do think a sig storm will develop.  But this is unconventional for sig snow for these parts.  I'd much rather have -NAO more westward beating down that ridge and forcing the storm underneath us than rely on the east based TPV which failed to do this in several times in February. It just doesn't seem to get the job done.  I think this weekend isn't much white unfortunately.  Also keep in mind GEFS is the best look for snow out of all major guidance ATM.

12z Euro on board now for Wednesday snow. Not as aggressive with snow as the NAM, but much more robust than its last run. Pops the Low off the Delmarva late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Shows about a 3-5" snowfall for most of North Jersey, NYC metro and Long Island. I imagine accumulation would depend on rates because surface temps during the day are mid to upper-30s, but upper air stays plenty cold enough for snow. Snow duration on Euro is from about 10 a.m. until after midnight Wednesday into Thursday.

Another round of model runs like these 12z's and we may have to start a thread for Wednesday.

billg315 wrote:12z Euro on board now for Wednesday snow. Not as aggressive with snow as the NAM, but much more robust than its last run. Pops the Low off the Delmarva late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Shows about a 3-5" snowfall for most of North Jersey, NYC metro and Long Island. I imagine accumulation would depend on rates because surface temps during the day are mid to upper-30s, but upper air stays plenty cold enough for snow. Snow duration on Euro is from about 10 a.m. until after midnight Wednesday into Thursday.

Location location location. If you end up under the heavier precip you will accumulate, if not then white rain or very low ratio, 4-6:1 on non paved surfaces

sroc4 wrote:

billg315 wrote:12z Euro on board now for Wednesday snow. Not as aggressive with snow as the NAM, but much more robust than its last run. Pops the Low off the Delmarva late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Shows about a 3-5" snowfall for most of North Jersey, NYC metro and Long Island. I imagine accumulation would depend on rates because surface temps during the day are mid to upper-30s, but upper air stays plenty cold enough for snow. Snow duration on Euro is from about 10 a.m. until after midnight Wednesday into Thursday.

Location location location.  If you end up under the heavier precip you will accumulate, if not then white rain or very low ratio, 4-6:1 on non paved surfaces

Exactly. We see this often with March, April and November storms. Have to get heavy snow to overcome the warm surface. But we know it does happen from time to time.

billg315 wrote:Another round of model runs like these 12z's and we may have to start a thread for Wednesday.

Bring ‘er home, fellas!!!

EURO just juiced it up interesting.

Upton Disco
Embedded mid level shortwaves along with isentropic lift ensues quickly Wednesday
morning as low pressure emanating out of Lower Appalachia races
quickly northeast. With high pressure retreating northeast look
for precip to become a bit steadier into the mid and late
morning. It should continue through the afternoon. Look for snow
at the very onset, but as temperatures warm slightly with a
higher sun angle this time of year and a light onshore flow gets
going look for wet snow to go to a wintry mix. Temperatures
profiles are very close in the PBL for frozen versus liquid, so
even if a wintry mix and rain does end up being more in the form
of snow it would be difficult for it to accumulate with the
ground being warmer from the latest round of warmer weather.
Also, the precip likely does not get very intense as this storm
system will not intensify much and appears to lack the dynamics
to generate enough dynamic cooling down to the surface to make
it a more frozen type event across the city and the coast. Thus
the current thinking has snowfall totals in the light coating to
an inch range, although inland spots may get a bit more if
steadier precip for a longer duration gets into far northern
zones. This is something to keep an eye on in subsequent
forecast cycles.

Wind advisory



>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
080445-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.220307T2300Z-220308T0900Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
334 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph,
shifting to the northwest.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.