March 2022 Obs & Discussions

Wind advisory



>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
080445-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0005.220307T2300Z-220308T0900Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
334 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph,
shifting to the northwest.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

Crazy how it’s still 70 deg and we have a severe thunderstorm watch to little snow for wed .that’s March for u

Holy cow! That was one heck of a severe-tstorm with the rain and wind but no lightning or thunder so not sure how they classified a svr t-storm warning. The wind was literally whistling like a tornado would, my daughter was freaking out. Line just cleared us, how are others in jersey? Said had winds to 60mph id say ya.

jmanley32 wrote:Holy cow! That was one heck of a severe-tstorm with the rain and wind but no lightning or thunder so not sure how they classified a svr t-storm warning. The wind was literally whistling like a tornado would, my daughter was freaking out.  Line just cleared us, how are others in jersey? Said had winds to 60mph id say ya.

by me it just started heavy wind driven rain

Nam!=)

It was pretty intense rain and wind here, but it was over pretty quickly.  The temperature has dropped ten degrees since the storm passed, 68°F during storm, 58°F now.

Still very windy, tons power outages coming in in yonkers, 2,000 so far. I was luck y i guess looks like northern side got hit hard per coned app.

Wow on 0z NAM

Wow, havent been following Wed but I guess I should as latest nam 3km just pastebombed NNJ NYC area and has me 6-10 wow, weird weather. Surprised Watches arent up, winter ones lol we just had out severe t-storm warnings.

Looks like NAM is out to lunch NWS sees maybe a snow rain mix to start then plain rain wed. Oh well. Weird how bad the models can be at times.

Euro and gfs continues to trend east for the weekends storm

NAM and Euro pretty in line and GFS not too far off for us getting decent period of snow tomorrow. Ratios won’t be great due to temps in 30s so you can cut down on the average 10:1 totals a bit (more like 6:1 maybe?), but still enough to accumulate IF it were to stick. That will be the big problem with marginal temps and a daytime event.
Two things needed to help with accumulation: rates or a delayed arrival. If you get a period of heavy snow it would overcome the warm surfaces. Also, if this kept going until after sunset (6pm tomorrow) then you could  see more stickage at the tail end in the evening hours.

I can see this being one where it snows a good part of the day with just wet streets and sidewalks that occasionally get coated when heavier bands come through; but then in areas where it lasts into evening the roads get a bit snow covered after dark.

NAM has handled some of these storms pretty well in-close this winter so it showing a mostly snow event (and the Euro and GFS not being too different from that) is of some significance to me.

I like a general 1-3" mostly NW I95 and n/s LI on colder surfaces only.  Pavement < 1"
Elevated areas NY State, NW NJ & NEPA > 1200' general 3-5" reports wouldn't surprise me on colder surfaces.

The most interesting aspect of tomorrow IMO will be good snowfall rates NW I95 and the fact it was 70+ degrees on Monday.  But this really gets hurt by the marginal surface temps and there are no dynamics to the storm to further cool things off.  At least we'll see some snow tomorrow in most areas and I'll take that as a win.

Somebody lost their virga. I found it up here this morning around 7 am. It covered the deck, walkway. Melted on driveway and grass. Sort of like the tiniest styrofoam balls and with no weight. I used a leaf blower to dispatch it as I do when a coating falls

heehaw453 wrote:I like a general 1-3" mostly NW I95 and n/s LI on colder surfaces only.  Pavement < 1"
Elevated areas NY State, NW NJ & NEPA > 1200' general 3-5" reports wouldn't surprise me on colder surfaces.

The most interesting aspect of tomorrow IMO will be good snowfall rates NW I95 and the fact it was 70+ degrees on Monday.  But this really gets hurt by the marginal surface temps and there are no dynamics to the storm to further cool things off.  At least we'll see some snow tomorrow in most areas and I'll take that as a win.

There is that scenario I have seen many times through the years in winters in these parts.Get a day in the 60's and a few days later. there is a snowstorm.NWS has me all snow with 1-3 all told.

To bad we did not have that arctic air mass in place that we had this week but so goes this winter and so many alike. This and Saturday would be bombs IF that were true. We'll take it and run. Snow rates should be pretty good so we'll get colder surface stickage, roads mostly wet due to 2 days a=of AN warm temps and sun angle starts to come into play as well now.

amugs wrote:To bad we did not have that arctic air mass in place that we had this week but so goes this winter and so many alike. This and Saturday would be bombs IF that were true. We'll take it and run. Snow rates should be pretty good so we'll get colder surface stickage, roads mostly wet due to 2 days a=of AN warm temps and sun angle starts to come into play as well now.

No doubt Mugs.  IMO Saturday would be 1'+ of snow with moderate not even good Atlantic support.  The SE ridge would be beaten down much more and consequently you'd have a much better antecedent air mass.  Deepening storm due to nice PNA would also be slowed a bit which would make all the difference.  Maybe we get lucky and the blocking is a bit stronger than shown.  Storm strength/track are looking much better for now.

Good call

Latest Euro for Saturday is yummy

this might be one of the snowier weeks parts of NJ have seen this year

Snow88 wrote:Latest Euro for Saturday is yummy

Well yeah.



Deeper and better dig to the trough.  Blocking better too in Greenland.  No doubt there will be a strong cyclogenesis.  I question the overall synoptics though for any meaningful snow.  It's the speed and the antecedent air mass that are two big red flags.

Not saying a lot of accumulation (due to marginal surface) but this mid-level placement to me is heavy snow from north of TTN on northward into LI.  I don't see this mixing along and north of I-78.  

Thread for tomorrow's snowfall.

Haven't seen the Adirondacks and Green Mountains of VT look this bad in many years before March 21.  Maybe they get some snow this Saturday.  But wow I'm not even bothering going up for a March run.

Drinking a beer on the deck, in the sun. 55 degrees. Let’s hope all hell breaks loose tomorrow