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March 2022 Obs & Discussions

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:33 pm

Holy cow! That was one heck of a severe-tstorm with the rain and wind but no lightning or thunder so not sure how they classified a svr t-storm warning. The wind was literally whistling like a tornado would, my daughter was freaking out. Line just cleared us, how are others in jersey? Said had winds to 60mph id say ya.
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Post by frank 638 Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:34 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Holy cow! That was one heck of a severe-tstorm with the rain and wind but no lightning or thunder so not sure how they classified a svr t-storm warning. The wind was literally whistling like a tornado would, my daughter was freaking out.  Line just cleared us, how are others in jersey? Said had winds to 60mph id say ya.
by me it just started heavy wind driven rain

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Post by Snow88 Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:40 pm

Nam!=)
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Post by brownie Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:47 pm

It was pretty intense rain and wind here, but it was over pretty quickly.  The temperature has dropped ten degrees since the storm passed, 68°F during storm, 58°F now.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:49 pm

Still very windy, tons power outages coming in in yonkers, 2,000 so far. I was luck y i guess looks like northern side got hit hard per coned app.
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Post by aiannone Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:16 pm

Wow on 0z NAM
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:34 pm

Wow, havent been following Wed but I guess I should as latest nam 3km just pastebombed NNJ NYC area and has me 6-10 wow, weird weather. Surprised Watches arent up, winter ones lol we just had out severe t-storm warnings.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:18 pm

Looks like NAM is out to lunch NWS sees maybe a snow rain mix to start then plain rain wed. Oh well. Weird how bad the models can be at times.
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Post by Snow88 Tue Mar 08, 2022 5:15 am

Euro and gfs continues to trend east for the weekends storm
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Post by billg315 Tue Mar 08, 2022 5:40 am

NAM and Euro pretty in line and GFS not too far off for us getting decent period of snow tomorrow. Ratios won’t be great due to temps in 30s so you can cut down on the average 10:1 totals a bit (more like 6:1 maybe?), but still enough to accumulate IF it were to stick. That will be the big problem with marginal temps and a daytime event.
Two things needed to help with accumulation: rates or a delayed arrival. If you get a period of heavy snow it would overcome the warm surfaces. Also, if this kept going until after sunset (6pm tomorrow) then you could  see more stickage at the tail end in the evening hours.


Last edited by billg315 on Tue Mar 08, 2022 5:46 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by billg315 Tue Mar 08, 2022 5:44 am

I can see this being one where it snows a good part of the day with just wet streets and sidewalks that occasionally get coated when heavier bands come through; but then in areas where it lasts into evening the roads get a bit snow covered after dark.
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Post by billg315 Tue Mar 08, 2022 5:54 am

NAM has handled some of these storms pretty well in-close this winter so it showing a mostly snow event (and the Euro and GFS not being too different from that) is of some significance to me.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:10 am

I like a general 1-3" mostly NW I95 and n/s LI on colder surfaces only.  Pavement < 1"
Elevated areas NY State, NW NJ & NEPA > 1200' general 3-5" reports wouldn't surprise me on colder surfaces.

The most interesting aspect of tomorrow IMO will be good snowfall rates NW I95 and the fact it was 70+ degrees on Monday.  But this really gets hurt by the marginal surface temps and there are no dynamics to the storm to further cool things off.  At least we'll see some snow tomorrow in most areas and I'll take that as a win.

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Post by dkodgis Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:31 am

Somebody lost their virga. I found it up here this morning around 7 am. It covered the deck, walkway. Melted on driveway and grass. Sort of like the tiniest styrofoam balls and with no weight. I used a leaf blower to dispatch it as I do when a coating falls
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Post by docstox12 Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:33 am

heehaw453 wrote:I like a general 1-3" mostly NW I95 and n/s LI on colder surfaces only.  Pavement < 1"
Elevated areas NY State, NW NJ & NEPA > 1200' general 3-5" reports wouldn't surprise me on colder surfaces.

The most interesting aspect of tomorrow IMO will be good snowfall rates NW I95 and the fact it was 70+ degrees on Monday.  But this really gets hurt by the marginal surface temps and there are no dynamics to the storm to further cool things off.  At least we'll see some snow tomorrow in most areas and I'll take that as a win.

There is that scenario I have seen many times through the years in winters in these parts.Get a day in the 60's and a few days later. there is a snowstorm.NWS has me all snow with 1-3 all told.
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Post by amugs Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:39 am

To bad we did not have that arctic air mass in place that we had this week but so goes this winter and so many alike. This and Saturday would be bombs IF that were true. We'll take it and run. Snow rates should be pretty good so we'll get colder surface stickage, roads mostly wet due to 2 days a=of AN warm temps and sun angle starts to come into play as well now.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:43 am

amugs wrote:To bad we did not have that arctic air mass in place that we had this week but so goes this winter and so many alike. This and Saturday would be bombs IF that were true. We'll take it and run. Snow rates should be pretty good so we'll get colder surface stickage, roads mostly wet due to 2 days a=of AN warm temps and sun angle starts to come into play as well now.

No doubt Mugs.  IMO Saturday would be 1'+ of snow with moderate not even good Atlantic support.  The SE ridge would be beaten down much more and consequently you'd have a much better antecedent air mass.  Deepening storm due to nice PNA would also be slowed a bit which would make all the difference.  Maybe we get lucky and the blocking is a bit stronger than shown.  Storm strength/track are looking much better for now.

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Post by amugs Tue Mar 08, 2022 1:07 pm

Good call

March 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Snowmap10-1024x577

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Post by Snow88 Tue Mar 08, 2022 1:31 pm

Latest Euro for Saturday is yummy
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Post by phil155 Tue Mar 08, 2022 1:36 pm

this might be one of the snowier weeks parts of NJ have seen this year

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Mar 08, 2022 1:45 pm

Snow88 wrote:Latest Euro for Saturday is yummy

Well yeah.

March 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 2 Euro64

Deeper and better dig to the trough.  Blocking better too in Greenland.  No doubt there will be a strong cyclogenesis.  I question the overall synoptics though for any meaningful snow.  It's the speed and the antecedent air mass that are two big red flags.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Mar 08, 2022 1:54 pm

Not saying a lot of accumulation (due to marginal surface) but this mid-level placement to me is heavy snow from north of TTN on northward into LI.  I don't see this mixing along and north of I-78.  

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Mar 08, 2022 7:46 pm

Thread for tomorrow's snowfall.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:36 am

Haven't seen the Adirondacks and Green Mountains of VT look this bad in many years before March 21.  Maybe they get some snow this Saturday.  But wow I'm not even bothering going up for a March run.

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Post by dkodgis Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:28 pm

Drinking a beer on the deck, in the sun. 55 degrees. Let’s hope all hell breaks loose tomorrow
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