Tropics

We'll see if it verifies this strong, but that would be quite a Rex Block the Euro is showing at Day 9. Might have to watch for hybrid development off the East Coast. Also, let's get that kind of Appalachian ridging out of our system before August, please. pic.twitter.com/aGLEK5WcdP

— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) May 3, 2022

Showing up after a Summer Surge that is tank top and short weather!!!



That is a cyclone vorticity over the SE HotLantic

Going to be an active year. But then again, most years are these days given the current macro cycle we are in: Nina base-state and + AMO. It will change eventually, just not sure when.

NHC has our first area to watch.  GFS LR has it becoming a hurricane well east of the US and heading OTS, but you never know with these things.  And btw hello all, I know I haven't been around much. Life has gotten busy for the better.

jmanley32 wrote:NHC has our first area to watch.  GFS LR has it becoming a hurricane well east of the US and heading OTS, but you never know with these things.  And btw hello all, I know I haven't been around much. Life has gotten busy for the better.

Here comes Agatha reincarbnated as Alex!!

I want to know how Costa Rica looks Jun 27-Jul 5 for weather as in…the “H” word. I have business down there. I am wobdering if any severe weather events are on the horizon

We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.

Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….

rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.

Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….

RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend  to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted.

rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.

Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….

I love it when your spidey senses start tingling.  I hope is well my friend.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.

Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….

RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend  to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted.

That sounds fantastic!! I’m jealous haha I mean, it’s not like you’d be in the middle of the Atlantic with nowhere to go, but if you’re uncomfortable, you’re uncomfortable. No use in being nervous the whole time. But I will certainly provide updates as much as I can

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.

Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….

I love it when your spidey senses start tingling.  I hope is well my friend.

All is QUITE well…..big things happening on my end, and you’ll find out over the next few months

Hope things are well for you too, brother!

sroc4 wrote:

Saw this, but I don’t think this has a DIRECT impact on our sensible weather, BUT IT MAY have secondary impacts with pattern realignment, especially if it takes off. One of the several variables that needs to be considered with the potential evolution, per usual lol I think this gets squashed into Gulf and impacts them, but it’s diabatic effects are what I’m much more concerned with, again, if it can really gain strength.

I will be in Central America in two days. I will let you all know the weather. I think people will ask ¿Usted es el señor Doc?

weatherwatchermom wrote:

RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend  to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted.

Hey Joanne, let me know if you stop off between the GWB and the Tappan Zee Bridge(NOT the Mario Cuomo Bridge lol), I'll come by and say hi!

rb924119 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.

Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….

RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend  to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted.

That sounds fantastic!! I’m jealous haha I mean, it’s not like you’d be in the middle of the Atlantic with nowhere to go, but if you’re uncomfortable, you’re uncomfortable. No use in being nervous the whole time. But I will certainly provide updates as much as I can

Tx RB..we have made the trip many times..from Sandy hook Manaquan inlet.its a long ride we are a trawler .so we go slow..lol and I just don't have a good feeling this year...so north we go..on 22 years of boating this is the first time I made my husband change our plans..

Dunnzoo wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend  to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted.

Hey Joanne, let me know if you stop off between the GWB and the Tappan Zee Bridge(NOT the Mario Cuomo Bridge lol), I'll come by and say hi!

on the way up we won't be but on way home we might stop in Tarrytown I will let you know..that would be fun...

I know, I know, 18z GFS Op run. But……..the last few frames look pretty close to the evolution described further above fluke, or foretelling? Stay tuned! Hopefully I’ll have an update by early next week that’s more substantive. Perhaps even a video discussion if I feel it’s warranted.

Lovely weather here in Costa Rica. Low 80s. Humid. Rain has been holding off each day.

I spy with my little eye…..

Looks like my earlier conjecture was a false alarm - should just see a time-mean trough over the eastern CONUS which would keep any tropical threats away from our area, excluding any perfect-track Atlantic basin wave that develops and rides the coast.

Pretty colors but nothing really worth tracking, IMHO, all that closely

Quiet in this part of Costa Rica. Hot, humid, very little rain fall

dkodgis wrote:Quiet in this part of Costa Rica. Hot, humid, very little rain fall

How long are you there for? Seems like you've been posting from there for a little bit. I am def jealous!