Re: Tropics

by **amugs** Fri Jul 29, 2022 12:25 pm

EPS guidance through mid-Aug shows slightly +SLP just off SE US coast first week of Aug, then weakening by second week. Meanwhile there is -SLP across the central/eastern subtropical Atlantic. Much stronger than usual high pressure is forecast from south of Iceland to near the UK pic.twitter.com/rb0TiSlpiR
— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) July 29, 2022

by **rb924119** Sat Jul 30, 2022 6:55 pm

The key in my previous statement was to watch for a ramp-up west of 60W. When it comes to modeling over the last couple days, the trend is my friend. I may have time to actually sit down tomorrow and take a harder look at this. If not tomorrow, though, certainly at some point this week. But at face value, I like the trends in numerical guidance.

by **rb924119** Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:18 pm

And now the 18z GFS just did an 18z GFS thing……lol

by tomsriversnowstorm Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:54 pm

Can you show us a pic or at least explain what it did?Most of us don’t know what you saw. Thank you so much

by **sroc4** Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:00 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Can you show us a pic or at least explain what it did?Most of us don’t know what you saw. Thank you so much

Developed two tropical systems. For the record Ray(rb) LOVES the 18z models runs. Especially in winter where he bases all his forecasts on. 18z and 6z

by **rb924119** Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:10 pm

sroc4 wrote:
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Can you show us a pic or at least explain what it did?Most of us don’t know what you saw. Thank you so much

Developed two tropical systems. For the record Ray(rb) LOVES the 18z models runs. Especially in winter where he bases all his forecasts on. 18z and 6z

For the record, Scott (sroc) was being sarcastic. I HATE 06z/18z runs lol For those who don’t realize, 18z and 06z runs do not take in actual balloon launch data like the 00z/12z runs do. In years passed, this led to a pretty wide performance gap between the two pairs of model cycles, with the 00z/12z suites generally outperforming the 06z/18z suites by a pretty wide margin. With better technology, and an increase in data sources (planes, satellites, etc.) this performance gap has been closed quite a bit, admittedly, as those data are still ingested. But I still don’t ever use the 06z/18z runs in analysis. Mostly just eye candy OR to demonstrate a potential evolution that I favor (as in this case).

At face value, GFS Suite seems to be a southwestern periphery, which has been coming toward the EURO Suite in the last several cycles regarding wave placement further north and more robust. This is a function of a weaker, further north, and better oriented Atlantic ridge. Again, I’ll probably take a look tomorrow, but at face value, I like where the models are headed with respect to my initial outline. Well, except the GEM Suite - that doesn’t seem to want to have anything to do with this so far lol

by **rb924119** Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:53 pm

18z GEFS:

by **rb924119** Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:56 pm

The bifurcation with respect to storms in the Gulf versus along/off the East Coast verbatim is due to different members focusing on different circulations. The ones in the Gulf are the result of a Caribbean gyre, while the ones along and off the East Coast are related to my wave of interest coming out of eastern Atlantic and propagating westward. This is only one run, but I’m highlighting it because it is showing where I preliminarily think we may be headed.

by **rb924119** Sun Jul 31, 2022 9:10 am

by **amugs** Sun Jul 31, 2022 6:29 pm

The SAL is choking off any MDR tropical developments. All foibg ti be in close and homegrown type storms at this time for the foreseeable future at this time that being next two weeks.

by **amugs** Tue Aug 02, 2022 5:36 pm

flwx - Tropics - Page 3 Screenshot_20220801-112021_Chrome.jpg.804608b3b7c27ee9dfe82b019c88e92c

From 33 n rain and our own Tony posted over there

by **amugs** Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:32 pm

Tropics want to get started.

by **rb924119** Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:59 pm

amugs wrote:Tropics want to get started.

by Zhukov1945 Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:23 pm

amugs wrote:Tropics want to get started.

Lord knows I don't want anyone to get messed up from a storm but we could sure use a 5"+ soaker

by **sroc4** Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:22 am

There is some color here but dont get your hopes up just yet for any significant development. That SAL(Saharan Air Layer) is still a tropics killer and will remain so for at least another week or 2.

flwx - Tropics - Page 3 Two_atl_5d0

by **billg315** Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:14 pm

Going to have to be a busy September and October or this will turn out to have been a very quiet season. For the record, I still fall in the camp of liking "quiet" when it comes to the tropics. Although with the dry weather this summer, maybe getting the heavy rain remnants of a storm would be a blessing around here.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 08, 2022 10:47 pm

billg315 wrote:Going to have to be a busy September and October or this will turn out to have been a very quiet season. For the record, I still fall in the camp of liking "quiet" when it comes to the tropics. Although with the dry weather this summer, maybe getting the heavy rain remnants of a storm would be a blessing around here.

Can be just as bad if not worse, recall Ida last year? It was a disaster here and many other areas of the tri-state. It has been crazy quiet one the many reasons you all haven't seen much of me. Yeah could go down in history books if we see the rest of the season like this.

by **phil155** Tue Aug 09, 2022 2:01 pm

billg315 wrote:Going to have to be a busy September and October or this will turn out to have been a very quiet season. For the record, I still fall in the camp of liking "quiet" when it comes to the tropics. Although with the dry weather this summer, maybe getting the heavy rain remnants of a storm would be a blessing around here.

After Ida last year I do not want to see the remnants of a tropical system up this way, just too much water all at once. That said with how dry it has been I can see that happening as nature has a way of trying to balance out and it has been very dry for a while

by Zhukov1945 Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:49 pm

phil155 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Going to have to be a busy September and October or this will turn out to have been a very quiet season. For the record, I still fall in the camp of liking "quiet" when it comes to the tropics. Although with the dry weather this summer, maybe getting the heavy rain remnants of a storm would be a blessing around here.

After Ida last year I do not want to see the remnants of a tropical system up this way, just too much water all at once. That said with how dry it has been I can see that happening as nature has a way of trying to balance out and it has been very dry for a while

Nobody wants an Ida event but a nice brush by a system that delivers 2-3" would sure be nice, not going to lie.

by **amugs** Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:04 pm

Euro day 12,13,14,15 ensemble members showing the parade route toward US coast pic.twitter.com/1oR22SRtjr
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) August 15, 2022

If this comes to fruition 3 tropical cyclones at once hitting main land USA is.....record breaking and pretty extreme.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:43 pm

amugs wrote:
Euro day 12,13,14,15 ensemble members showing the parade route toward US coast pic.twitter.com/1oR22SRtjr
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) August 15, 2022

If this comes to fruition 3 tropical cyclones at once hitting main land USA is.....record breaking and pretty extreme.

It has been too quiet mugs, mother nature is gonna pull something crazy this fall, maybe even up here we will see. GFS has a cane in atlantic at 384 hrs lol, yeah means nada. Though I will add that this LR Euro looks ridiculous. Are we really going to be tracking 8 yes 8 tropical systems headed to the US mainland or near in 15 days, there isn't even any areas of interest last time I checked NHC? I mean unless the Saharan dust lets up I do not see how, unless they all develop around the Leeward Is. or south of FL/along east coast. Crazy graphic, kinda a 2012 movie look to it..some of those especially the one on the OBX headed north are cat3 or higher. I as always say I wish no harm on anyone but tracking something interesting would be nice for a change. Not that I have all that much time to track but I will certainly check in more often when we do. Ray what are your thoughts on LR tropics?

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 19, 2022 8:59 pm

12z GFS has some activity and at fantasy lands last hour has a 954mb cane at SC strong high above headed east would bring it right up verbatim but -0% chance of that playing out.

by **sroc4** Thu Aug 25, 2022 2:48 pm

It's not the only factor, but the SAL(Saharan Air Layer) has been absolutely relentless this summer and is the single most dominant cause to the quiet Trop season thus far (IMHO); completely destroying tropical waves as they come off the African coast and traverse the ITCZ(Inter Tropical Convergence Zone = Between the West African coast to the Eastern Caribbean Islands).

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

by **amugs** Sun Aug 28, 2022 8:59 pm

18z GFS back to its old ways??? Crazy scenario.

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 28, 2022 10:33 pm

amugs wrote:18z GFS back to its old ways??? Crazy scenario.

These two systems have been pretty consistent on developing. The system clesest to the EC is the 70% chance the NHC has right now. That one has me interested for a EC threat around 7-14th time frame anywhere from FL north, no way to speculate though 18z did a pretty nutty loop back to carolinas then up EC with a deluge that we do not need, we need a soft steady rain for about 15 days lol.

by **sroc4** Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:18z GFS back to its old ways??? Crazy scenario.

These two systems have been pretty consistent on developing. The system clesest to the EC is the 70% chance the NHC has right now. That one has me interested for a EC threat around 7-14th time frame anywhere from FL north, no way to speculate though 18z did a pretty nutty loop back to carolinas then up EC with a deluge that we do not need, we need a soft steady rain for about 15 days lol.

The one that comes out of the Caribbean; into the GOM was only modled on the GFS. Unfort the GFS has been and usually is clueless regarding tropics, relative to the euro at least. There has been significant shear forecast on the euro which inhibited it from developing. GFS had much weaker shear; hence the development. The Euro clearly won out on that one. Its leading the way on the other one as well.

by **dkodgis** Tue Aug 30, 2022 10:19 am

I agree with Billg315; if we can't get rain, and the tropics can produce a storm up this way so it rains alot, we need it.

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