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Tropics

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:18 pm

And now the 18z GFS just did an 18z GFS thing……lol

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Post by tomsriversnowstorm Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:54 pm

Can you show us a pic or at least explain what it did?Most of us don’t know what you saw. Thank you so much

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:00 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Can you show us a pic or at least explain what it did?Most of us don’t know what you saw. Thank you so much

Developed two tropical systems. For the record Ray(rb) LOVES the 18z models runs. Especially in winter where he bases all his forecasts on. 18z and 6z 😉

Tropics - Page 3 81883410

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:10 pm

sroc4 wrote:
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Can you show us a pic or at least explain what it did?Most of us don’t know what you saw. Thank you so much

Developed two tropical systems.  For the record Ray(rb) LOVES the 18z models runs. Especially in winter where he bases all his forecasts on. 18z and 6z 😉

Tropics - Page 3 81883410

lol! lol!

For the record, Scott (sroc) was being sarcastic. I HATE 06z/18z runs lol For those who don’t realize, 18z and 06z runs do not take in actual balloon launch data like the 00z/12z runs do. In years passed, this led to a pretty wide performance gap between the two pairs of model cycles, with the 00z/12z suites generally outperforming the 06z/18z suites by a pretty wide margin. With better technology, and an increase in data sources (planes, satellites, etc.) this performance gap has been closed quite a bit, admittedly, as those data are still ingested. But I still don’t ever use the 06z/18z runs in analysis. Mostly just eye candy OR to demonstrate a potential evolution that I favor (as in this case).

At face value, GFS Suite seems to be a southwestern periphery, which has been coming toward the EURO Suite in the last several cycles regarding wave placement further north and more robust. This is a function of a weaker, further north, and better oriented Atlantic ridge. Again, I’ll probably take a look tomorrow, but at face value, I like where the models are headed with respect to my initial outline. Well, except the GEM Suite - that doesn’t seem to want to have anything to do with this so far lol

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:53 pm

18z GEFS:

Tropics - Page 3 Ff949810

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:56 pm

The bifurcation with respect to storms in the Gulf versus along/off the East Coast verbatim is due to different members focusing on different circulations. The ones in the Gulf are the result of a Caribbean gyre, while the ones along and off the East Coast are related to my wave of interest coming out of eastern Atlantic and propagating westward. This is only one run, but I’m highlighting it because it is showing where I preliminarily think we may be headed.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jul 31, 2022 9:10 am

Tropics - Page 3 7df6a210

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Post by amugs Sun Jul 31, 2022 6:29 pm

The SAL is choking off any MDR tropical developments. All foibg ti be in close and homegrown type storms at this time for the foreseeable future at this time that being next two weeks. Tropics - Page 3 Fzaex-10

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Post by amugs Tue Aug 02, 2022 5:36 pm

Tropics - Page 3 Screenshot_20220801-112021_Chrome.jpg.804608b3b7c27ee9dfe82b019c88e92c

From 33 n rain and our own Tony posted over there

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Post by amugs Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:32 pm

Tropics want to get started.


Tropics - Page 3 Fzqta_10


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Post by rb924119 Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:59 pm

amugs wrote:Tropics want to get started.


Tropics - Page 3 Fzqta_10


Smile

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Post by Zhukov1945 Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:23 pm

amugs wrote:Tropics want to get started.


Tropics - Page 3 Fzqta_10


Lord knows I don't want anyone to get messed up from a storm but we could sure use a 5"+ soaker
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Post by sroc4 Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:22 am

There is some color here but dont get your hopes up just yet for any significant development.  That SAL(Saharan Air Layer) is still a tropics killer and will remain so for at least another week or 2.  

Tropics - Page 3 Two_atl_5d0

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Post by billg315 Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:14 pm

Going to have to be a busy September and October or this will turn out to have been a very quiet season. For the record, I still fall in the camp of liking "quiet" when it comes to the tropics. Although with the dry weather this summer, maybe getting the heavy rain remnants of a storm would be a blessing around here.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 08, 2022 10:47 pm

billg315 wrote:Going to have to be a busy September and October or this will turn out to have been a very quiet season. For the record, I still fall in the camp of liking "quiet" when it comes to the tropics. Although with the dry weather this summer, maybe getting the heavy rain remnants of a storm would be a blessing around here.
Can be just as bad if not worse, recall Ida last year? It was a disaster here and many other areas of the tri-state. It has been crazy quiet one the many reasons you all haven't seen much of me. Yeah could go down in history books if we see the rest of the season like this.
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Post by phil155 Tue Aug 09, 2022 2:01 pm

billg315 wrote:Going to have to be a busy September and October or this will turn out to have been a very quiet season. For the record, I still fall in the camp of liking "quiet" when it comes to the tropics. Although with the dry weather this summer, maybe getting the heavy rain remnants of a storm would be a blessing around here.

After Ida last year I do not want to see the remnants of a tropical system up this way, just too much water all at once. That said with how dry it has been I can see that happening as nature has a way of trying to balance out and it has been very dry for a while

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Post by Zhukov1945 Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:49 pm

phil155 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Going to have to be a busy September and October or this will turn out to have been a very quiet season. For the record, I still fall in the camp of liking "quiet" when it comes to the tropics. Although with the dry weather this summer, maybe getting the heavy rain remnants of a storm would be a blessing around here.

After Ida last year I do not want to see the remnants of a tropical system up this way, just too much water all at once. That said with how dry it has been I can see that happening as nature has a way of trying to balance out and it has been very dry for a while  

Nobody wants an Ida event but a nice brush by a system that delivers 2-3" would sure be nice, not going to lie.
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Post by amugs Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:04 pm



If this comes to fruition 3 tropical cyclones at once hitting main land USA is.....record breaking and pretty extreme.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 15, 2022 8:43 pm

amugs wrote:

If this comes to fruition 3 tropical cyclones at once hitting main land USA is.....record breaking and pretty extreme.
It has been too quiet mugs, mother nature is gonna pull something crazy this fall, maybe even up here we will see. GFS has a cane in atlantic at 384 hrs lol, yeah means nada. Though I will add that this LR Euro looks ridiculous. Are we really going to be tracking 8 yes 8 tropical systems headed to the US mainland or near in 15 days, there isn't even any areas of interest last time I checked NHC? I mean unless the Saharan dust lets up I do not see how, unless they all develop around the Leeward Is. or south of FL/along east coast.  Crazy graphic, kinda a 2012 movie look to it..some of those especially the one on the OBX headed north are cat3 or higher. I as always say I wish no harm on anyone but tracking something interesting would be nice for a change. Not that I have all that much time to track but I will certainly check in more often when we do. Ray what are your thoughts on LR tropics?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 19, 2022 8:59 pm

12z GFS has some activity and at fantasy lands last hour has a 954mb cane at SC strong high above headed east would bring it right up verbatim but -0% chance of that playing out.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 25, 2022 2:48 pm

It's not the only factor, but the SAL(Saharan Air Layer) has been absolutely relentless this summer and is the single most dominant cause to the quiet Trop season thus far (IMHO); completely destroying tropical waves as they come off the African coast and traverse the ITCZ(Inter Tropical Convergence Zone = Between the West African coast to the Eastern Caribbean Islands).  

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

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Post by amugs Sun Aug 28, 2022 8:59 pm

18z GFS back to its old ways??? Crazy scenario.
Tropics - Page 3 Fbr_dk10

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2022 10:33 pm

amugs wrote:18z GFS back to its old ways??? Crazy scenario.
Tropics - Page 3 Fbr_dk10
These two systems have been pretty consistent on developing. The system clesest to the EC is the 70% chance the NHC has right now. That one has me interested for a EC threat around 7-14th time frame anywhere from FL north, no way to speculate though 18z did a pretty nutty loop back to carolinas then up EC with a deluge that we do not need, we need a soft steady rain for about 15 days lol.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Aug 29, 2022 3:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:18z GFS back to its old ways??? Crazy scenario.
Tropics - Page 3 Fbr_dk10
These two systems have been pretty consistent on developing.  The system clesest to the EC is the 70% chance the NHC has right now. That one has me interested for a EC threat around 7-14th time frame anywhere from FL north, no way to speculate though 18z did a pretty nutty loop back to carolinas then up EC with a deluge that we do not need, we need a soft steady rain for about 15 days lol.

The one that comes out of the Caribbean; into the GOM was only modled on the GFS. Unfort the GFS has been and usually is clueless regarding tropics, relative to the euro at least.  There has been significant shear forecast on the euro which inhibited it from developing.  GFS had much weaker shear; hence the development.  The Euro clearly won out on that one.  Its leading the way on the other one as well.

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Post by dkodgis Tue Aug 30, 2022 10:19 am

I agree with Billg315; if we can't get rain, and the tropics can produce a storm up this way so it rains alot, we need it.
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