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Long Range Thread 25.0

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heehaw453
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by dkodgis Mon Nov 07, 2022 12:41 pm

72 here. In sun, 78. 

Glorious!
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Post by Irish Mon Nov 07, 2022 7:49 pm

dkodgis wrote:72 here. In sun, 78. 

Glorious!

Penalty on dkodgis, discussing disgusting current warm temps in the long range thread. You sir, get in the corner with the dunce cap.

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Post by dkodgis Mon Nov 07, 2022 7:58 pm

I accept your condemnation. I secretly hope for snow soon
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Post by Irish Mon Nov 07, 2022 8:12 pm

dkodgis wrote:I accept your condemnation. I secretly hope for snow soon

Now, that's more like it! Thumbs up

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:18 am



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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by algae888 Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:33 am

Big pattern change upcoming.   Starting Sunday And lasting for at least 2 weeks.  Negative temperature departures of at least -5 during that time frame and probably higher.  1st wintry event especially for the interior From the 14th  Thru Thanksgiving.  Courtesy of a poleward aleutian ridge(-epo our cold source) andTanking Soi(active southern jet) .  I love the negative height anomalies North of Hawaii.   Our 1st shot is follow up wave after nicole departs.  Further  West Nicole tracks Greater chance follow up wave closer to the coast.  After that  Maybe our best shot with cold air entrenched and no shortage of short waves  in the Southern jet. it's time to track
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by algae888 Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:44 am

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Eps_z511
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Eps_z512
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:46 am

To ALgae88 point on teh tanking SOI - thisis an incerdible drop!!

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by Irish Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:49 am

amugs wrote:

Hoping that 24-40 sags further south. Would hate an overall 18-24 for the entire winter, as that could be the amounts for 1 great storm.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Tue Nov 08, 2022 1:05 pm

If this Polar Vortex split does occur and decouples with the troposphere then what a ride we may be in for a December to Remember!?

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 FhC65J4XEAAMVUa?format=jpg&name=900x900

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:14 pm

Irish wrote:
amugs wrote:

Hoping that 24-40 sags further south. Would hate an overall 18-24 for the entire winter, as that could be the amounts for 1 great storm.
Complaining already are we? Just jerkin yer chain for you tell me when I complain lol. I hope you get tons of snow.  You do live in a tough area though, even here it is tough, 40-50 for the year would be fairly normal here.
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by Irish Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:13 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Irish wrote:
amugs wrote:

Hoping that 24-40 sags further south. Would hate an overall 18-24 for the entire winter, as that could be the amounts for 1 great storm.
Complaining already are we? Just jerkin yer chain for you tell me when I complain lol. I hope you get tons of snow.  You do live in a tough area though, even here it is tough, 40-50 for the year would be fairly normal here.

Figured I'd start early and then let you take over once winter actually starts and then you can run with it the rest of the way.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:40 pm

Irish wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Irish wrote:
amugs wrote:

Hoping that 24-40 sags further south. Would hate an overall 18-24 for the entire winter, as that could be the amounts for 1 great storm.
Complaining already are we? Just jerkin yer chain for you tell me when I complain lol. I hope you get tons of snow.  You do live in a tough area though, even here it is tough, 40-50 for the year would be fairly normal here.

Figured I'd start early and then let you take over once winter actually starts and then you can run with it the rest of the way.
Nah not this year, no time for that, snow is def not the most important thing to me right now. A lot has changed over the past 2 years (good stuff), I barely even was on from I would say March 2022 till now. Hope you are well.
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Nov 09, 2022 10:32 am

I'm following an interesting period from mid-November to the end of the month. Once the tropical disturbance passes through our area this weekend, it sets amplification to the overall 500mb pattern where we see the EPO (as mentioned by others) move to an extremely negative state.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33

The lack of -NAO prevents the trough from amplifying over the eastern CONUS. Instead, it's very broad and rather disorganized and it seems the greatest cold temperature anomalies are confined to the midwest.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_6

Regardless, it's impressive cold for this time of year!

What happens thereafter becomes tricky. We seem to go into a more 'La Nina' like pattern where the SE Ridge tries to return due to the EPO breaking down and NAO remaining positive. So, I'm thinking we'll get into a spell of colder than normal weather starting around starting next week, but it will be transient and we'll see a return to normal or above normal temps around Thanksgiving or shortly after.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by HectorO Thu Nov 10, 2022 8:05 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I'm following an interesting period from mid-November to the end of the month. Once the tropical disturbance passes through our area this weekend, it sets amplification to the overall 500mb pattern where we see the EPO (as mentioned by others) move to an extremely negative state.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33

The lack of -NAO prevents the trough from amplifying over the eastern CONUS. Instead, it's very broad and rather disorganized and it seems the greatest cold temperature anomalies are confined to the midwest.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_6

Regardless, it's impressive cold for this time of year!

What happens thereafter becomes tricky. We seem to go into a more 'La Nina' like pattern where the SE Ridge tries to return due to the EPO breaking down and NAO remaining positive. So, I'm thinking we'll get into a spell of colder than normal weather starting around starting next week, but it will be transient and we'll see a return to normal or above normal temps around Thanksgiving or shortly after.

It's truly amazing how unpredictable weather is. The past couple years it's almost been as if warmth is the norm, and cold just comes in snaps.
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by Irish Thu Nov 10, 2022 8:16 am

HectorO wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I'm following an interesting period from mid-November to the end of the month. Once the tropical disturbance passes through our area this weekend, it sets amplification to the overall 500mb pattern where we see the EPO (as mentioned by others) move to an extremely negative state.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33

The lack of -NAO prevents the trough from amplifying over the eastern CONUS. Instead, it's very broad and rather disorganized and it seems the greatest cold temperature anomalies are confined to the midwest.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_6

Regardless, it's impressive cold for this time of year!

What happens thereafter becomes tricky. We seem to go into a more 'La Nina' like pattern where the SE Ridge tries to return due to the EPO breaking down and NAO remaining positive. So, I'm thinking we'll get into a spell of colder than normal weather starting around starting next week, but it will be transient and we'll see a return to normal or above normal temps around Thanksgiving or shortly after.

It's truly amazing how unpredictable weather is. The past couple years it's almost been as if warmth is the norm, and cold just comes in snaps.

Better yet known as Global Warming.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:07 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I'm following an interesting period from mid-November to the end of the month. Once the tropical disturbance passes through our area this weekend, it sets amplification to the overall 500mb pattern where we see the EPO (as mentioned by others) move to an extremely negative state.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33

The lack of -NAO prevents the trough from amplifying over the eastern CONUS. Instead, it's very broad and rather disorganized and it seems the greatest cold temperature anomalies are confined to the midwest.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_6

Regardless, it's impressive cold for this time of year!

What happens thereafter becomes tricky. We seem to go into a more 'La Nina' like pattern where the SE Ridge tries to return due to the EPO breaking down and NAO remaining positive. So, I'm thinking we'll get into a spell of colder than normal weather starting around starting next week, but it will be transient and we'll see a return to normal or above normal temps around Thanksgiving or shortly after.

Great post Frank.  You are seem to be onto something when questioning what happens to the pattern when you get beyond Turkey day or so.  While we do get this crashing -EPO it clearly is looking to rebound back to neutral to positive.  When looking at the MJO forecasts, now there seems to be a good consensus on a re-emergence back out into phase 5; then 6 with amplitude.  These phases early in the fall tend to lean cold in the east; however, as we transition later into the fall and certainly the winter these phases are definitly warm phases.  



The LR Ens 500mb forecasts are hinting at the rise of the EPO back to positive, a neutral PNA, neutral to positive AO and NAO, which line up with those MJO forecasts.  This WILL allow the base state of La Nina to come back and control the pattern where the WAR/SE Ridge flexes back and a SW flow aloft brings above normal temps back for a period of time.  The extent of which is still questionable, but a period of AN temps following these next couple of weeks BN def seems likely IMHO.  




As has been discussed many times before its not uncommon for an MJO wave to pulse and travel through certain phases over a period of time; then crash back into the COD and re-emerge again in a similar pattern as before.  This seems to be whats happeing now as well which really shouldn't come as a surprise.  The silver lining may come in the form of these amplified MJO pulses in the warm phases in the early season are likely to affect the strat polar vortex such that it is weaker, making it more susceptible to a true SSWE

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by algae888 Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:05 am

The anomalous cold from the -epo Will deliver an early season snowfall for our interior areas. Good signs going forward as the nao and ao are forecast to go negative thanks to the mjo progressing to phase 7 and probably 8 to start December. We lose the -epo but will have a -wpo combined with the -ao should still produce a cross polar flow. We moderate around turkey day but should go back below normal in early December. The latest cfs is drool worthy. Hope it verifies
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Cfs-da10

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:54 am

Latest MJO - THE WAVE IS BEING MUTED NOW - it was Phase 5 then 6 and so many were oh my we torch, it get warm again, head fake alert. Latest Euro shows a run from COD into phase 6 for a couple of days where we "moderate" to Normal Temps then we rebound into colder phases 7 then projection into 8

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 ECMF_phase_51m_small

GEFS say 5 then 6 then 7 and  - who's going to be right?
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 NCPE_phase_21m_small

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:10 am



This would be a Miller A that on this porjected path would be a storm for us on Saturdayish

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:03 pm

From Usawx board Blizzard post. WPS and GEFS both on board for a 2010 Dec similar set up.
Neg NAO and AO and WPO with a neutral PNA

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Screen16

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:09 am

amugs wrote:

This would be a Miller A that on this porjected path would be a storm for us on Saturdayish
This Saturday or the sat after Thanksgiving?...we are traveling internationally this Saturday
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Post by amugs Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:00 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
amugs wrote:

This would be a Miller A that on this porjected path would be a storm for us on Saturdayish
This Saturday or the sat after Thanksgiving?...we are traveling internationally this Saturday

Of Thanksgiving Day weekend

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:06 pm

amugs wrote:From Usawx board Blizzard post. WPS and GEFS both on board for a 2010 Dec similar set up.
Neg NAO and AO and WPO with a neutral PNA

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Screen16
Hey folks!  Good to see the board getting active for the impending winter months.  That pattern Mugs is how it gets done around these parts.  If that sets up shop in the winter months plan on lots of activity.  We'll see and hope for best.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:27 pm

Haw is back!! Love it!!

This is encouraging:\


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