Long Range Thread 25.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
Here’s a composite of DJF temperatures over the US in winters following a November in which a sub-940mb low developed in the North Atlantic. #wxtwitter https://t.co/sLxClLpFmY pic.twitter.com/PtzuKxvd6K
— Mark Margavage (@MeteoMark) November 5, 2022
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
Glorious!
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
dkodgis wrote:72 here. In sun, 78.
Glorious!
Penalty on dkodgis, discussing disgusting current warm temps in the long range thread. You sir, get in the corner with the dunce cap.
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
dkodgis wrote:I accept your condemnation. I secretly hope for snow soon
Now, that's more like it!
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
WINTER OUTLOOK 2022-23: Its that time of year again where we are eagerly looking ahead to the upcoming winter!! This outlook specifically was difficult to make given the high uncertainty of the possible patterns we see! Let's dive into what brought us to having these outputs!! pic.twitter.com/MI1XVI3PKZ
— Matthew Ferreira | MassachusettsWx | SNEWxCenter! (@MassachusettsWx) November 8, 2022
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
The Nov 7th SOI value of -31.05 was the largest negative value observed since June 20, 2020. Models haven’t quite picked up on this yet, but watch the 15th - 18th for a snowstorm to come out of the southern branch. 0z Euro kind of hinting at something but not there yet #wxtwitter pic.twitter.com/n24wiihtD4
— Mark Margavage (@MeteoMark) November 8, 2022
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
amugs wrote:WINTER OUTLOOK 2022-23: Its that time of year again where we are eagerly looking ahead to the upcoming winter!! This outlook specifically was difficult to make given the high uncertainty of the possible patterns we see! Let's dive into what brought us to having these outputs!! pic.twitter.com/MI1XVI3PKZ
— Matthew Ferreira | MassachusettsWx | SNEWxCenter! (@MassachusettsWx) November 8, 2022
Hoping that 24-40 sags further south. Would hate an overall 18-24 for the entire winter, as that could be the amounts for 1 great storm.
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
Complaining already are we? Just jerkin yer chain for you tell me when I complain lol. I hope you get tons of snow. You do live in a tough area though, even here it is tough, 40-50 for the year would be fairly normal here.Irish wrote:amugs wrote:WINTER OUTLOOK 2022-23: Its that time of year again where we are eagerly looking ahead to the upcoming winter!! This outlook specifically was difficult to make given the high uncertainty of the possible patterns we see! Let's dive into what brought us to having these outputs!! pic.twitter.com/MI1XVI3PKZ
— Matthew Ferreira | MassachusettsWx | SNEWxCenter! (@MassachusettsWx) November 8, 2022
Hoping that 24-40 sags further south. Would hate an overall 18-24 for the entire winter, as that could be the amounts for 1 great storm.
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
jmanley32 wrote:Complaining already are we? Just jerkin yer chain for you tell me when I complain lol. I hope you get tons of snow. You do live in a tough area though, even here it is tough, 40-50 for the year would be fairly normal here.Irish wrote:amugs wrote:WINTER OUTLOOK 2022-23: Its that time of year again where we are eagerly looking ahead to the upcoming winter!! This outlook specifically was difficult to make given the high uncertainty of the possible patterns we see! Let's dive into what brought us to having these outputs!! pic.twitter.com/MI1XVI3PKZ
— Matthew Ferreira | MassachusettsWx | SNEWxCenter! (@MassachusettsWx) November 8, 2022
Hoping that 24-40 sags further south. Would hate an overall 18-24 for the entire winter, as that could be the amounts for 1 great storm.
Figured I'd start early and then let you take over once winter actually starts and then you can run with it the rest of the way.
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
Nah not this year, no time for that, snow is def not the most important thing to me right now. A lot has changed over the past 2 years (good stuff), I barely even was on from I would say March 2022 till now. Hope you are well.Irish wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Complaining already are we? Just jerkin yer chain for you tell me when I complain lol. I hope you get tons of snow. You do live in a tough area though, even here it is tough, 40-50 for the year would be fairly normal here.Irish wrote:amugs wrote:WINTER OUTLOOK 2022-23: Its that time of year again where we are eagerly looking ahead to the upcoming winter!! This outlook specifically was difficult to make given the high uncertainty of the possible patterns we see! Let's dive into what brought us to having these outputs!! pic.twitter.com/MI1XVI3PKZ
— Matthew Ferreira | MassachusettsWx | SNEWxCenter! (@MassachusettsWx) November 8, 2022
Hoping that 24-40 sags further south. Would hate an overall 18-24 for the entire winter, as that could be the amounts for 1 great storm.
Figured I'd start early and then let you take over once winter actually starts and then you can run with it the rest of the way.
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
The lack of -NAO prevents the trough from amplifying over the eastern CONUS. Instead, it's very broad and rather disorganized and it seems the greatest cold temperature anomalies are confined to the midwest.
Regardless, it's impressive cold for this time of year!
What happens thereafter becomes tricky. We seem to go into a more 'La Nina' like pattern where the SE Ridge tries to return due to the EPO breaking down and NAO remaining positive. So, I'm thinking we'll get into a spell of colder than normal weather starting around starting next week, but it will be transient and we'll see a return to normal or above normal temps around Thanksgiving or shortly after.
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
Frank_Wx wrote:I'm following an interesting period from mid-November to the end of the month. Once the tropical disturbance passes through our area this weekend, it sets amplification to the overall 500mb pattern where we see the EPO (as mentioned by others) move to an extremely negative state.
The lack of -NAO prevents the trough from amplifying over the eastern CONUS. Instead, it's very broad and rather disorganized and it seems the greatest cold temperature anomalies are confined to the midwest.
Regardless, it's impressive cold for this time of year!
What happens thereafter becomes tricky. We seem to go into a more 'La Nina' like pattern where the SE Ridge tries to return due to the EPO breaking down and NAO remaining positive. So, I'm thinking we'll get into a spell of colder than normal weather starting around starting next week, but it will be transient and we'll see a return to normal or above normal temps around Thanksgiving or shortly after.
It's truly amazing how unpredictable weather is. The past couple years it's almost been as if warmth is the norm, and cold just comes in snaps.
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
HectorO wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:I'm following an interesting period from mid-November to the end of the month. Once the tropical disturbance passes through our area this weekend, it sets amplification to the overall 500mb pattern where we see the EPO (as mentioned by others) move to an extremely negative state.
The lack of -NAO prevents the trough from amplifying over the eastern CONUS. Instead, it's very broad and rather disorganized and it seems the greatest cold temperature anomalies are confined to the midwest.
Regardless, it's impressive cold for this time of year!
What happens thereafter becomes tricky. We seem to go into a more 'La Nina' like pattern where the SE Ridge tries to return due to the EPO breaking down and NAO remaining positive. So, I'm thinking we'll get into a spell of colder than normal weather starting around starting next week, but it will be transient and we'll see a return to normal or above normal temps around Thanksgiving or shortly after.
It's truly amazing how unpredictable weather is. The past couple years it's almost been as if warmth is the norm, and cold just comes in snaps.
Better yet known as Global Warming.
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
Frank_Wx wrote:I'm following an interesting period from mid-November to the end of the month. Once the tropical disturbance passes through our area this weekend, it sets amplification to the overall 500mb pattern where we see the EPO (as mentioned by others) move to an extremely negative state.
The lack of -NAO prevents the trough from amplifying over the eastern CONUS. Instead, it's very broad and rather disorganized and it seems the greatest cold temperature anomalies are confined to the midwest.
Regardless, it's impressive cold for this time of year!
What happens thereafter becomes tricky. We seem to go into a more 'La Nina' like pattern where the SE Ridge tries to return due to the EPO breaking down and NAO remaining positive. So, I'm thinking we'll get into a spell of colder than normal weather starting around starting next week, but it will be transient and we'll see a return to normal or above normal temps around Thanksgiving or shortly after.
Great post Frank. You are seem to be onto something when questioning what happens to the pattern when you get beyond Turkey day or so. While we do get this crashing -EPO it clearly is looking to rebound back to neutral to positive. When looking at the MJO forecasts, now there seems to be a good consensus on a re-emergence back out into phase 5; then 6 with amplitude. These phases early in the fall tend to lean cold in the east; however, as we transition later into the fall and certainly the winter these phases are definitly warm phases.
The LR Ens 500mb forecasts are hinting at the rise of the EPO back to positive, a neutral PNA, neutral to positive AO and NAO, which line up with those MJO forecasts. This WILL allow the base state of La Nina to come back and control the pattern where the WAR/SE Ridge flexes back and a SW flow aloft brings above normal temps back for a period of time. The extent of which is still questionable, but a period of AN temps following these next couple of weeks BN def seems likely IMHO.
As has been discussed many times before its not uncommon for an MJO wave to pulse and travel through certain phases over a period of time; then crash back into the COD and re-emerge again in a similar pattern as before. This seems to be whats happeing now as well which really shouldn't come as a surprise. The silver lining may come in the form of these amplified MJO pulses in the warm phases in the early season are likely to affect the strat polar vortex such that it is weaker, making it more susceptible to a true SSWE
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
GEFS say 5 then 6 then 7 and - who's going to be right?
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST... MDLS HINTING AT A POSBL SIGNIFICANT EVENT SETTING UP AROUND T-DAY... IMAGE 06Z GFS INSIDE 8 DAYS .. #TAMPICO LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... IF YOU DON'T KNOW YOU BETTER @AXE SOMEBODY... @SurfSkiWeather @NWSBoston pic.twitter.com/Y6qVZTaN9h
— DaBuh (@DaDaBuh) November 15, 2022
This would be a Miller A that on this porjected path would be a storm for us on Saturdayish
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
This Saturday or the sat after Thanksgiving?...we are traveling internationally this Saturdayamugs wrote:LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST... MDLS HINTING AT A POSBL SIGNIFICANT EVENT SETTING UP AROUND T-DAY... IMAGE 06Z GFS INSIDE 8 DAYS .. #TAMPICO LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... IF YOU DON'T KNOW YOU BETTER @AXE SOMEBODY... @SurfSkiWeather @NWSBoston pic.twitter.com/Y6qVZTaN9h
— DaBuh (@DaDaBuh) November 15, 2022
This would be a Miller A that on this porjected path would be a storm for us on Saturdayish
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
weatherwatchermom wrote:This Saturday or the sat after Thanksgiving?...we are traveling internationally this Saturdayamugs wrote:LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST... MDLS HINTING AT A POSBL SIGNIFICANT EVENT SETTING UP AROUND T-DAY... IMAGE 06Z GFS INSIDE 8 DAYS .. #TAMPICO LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... IF YOU DON'T KNOW YOU BETTER @AXE SOMEBODY... @SurfSkiWeather @NWSBoston pic.twitter.com/Y6qVZTaN9h
— DaBuh (@DaDaBuh) November 15, 2022
This would be a Miller A that on this porjected path would be a storm for us on Saturdayish
Of Thanksgiving Day weekend
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
Hey folks! Good to see the board getting active for the impending winter months. That pattern Mugs is how it gets done around these parts. If that sets up shop in the winter months plan on lots of activity. We'll see and hope for best.
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Re: Long Range Thread 25.0
This is encouraging:\
Upcoming pop in EPO after record-breaking low levels this week follows similar themes from late November 2017, 2010, and 1995. Would watch for another EPO dip by early December thanks to La Niña volatility. pic.twitter.com/EA8bD0TCa0
— Commodity Wx Group (@commoditywx) November 16, 2022
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