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Long Range Thread 25.0

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 01, 2023 1:44 pm

Good point Heehaw

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Sun Jan 01, 2023 2:36 pm

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 FlaLhZEXwAEMOGp?format=png&name=medium

Good look here on LR GEFS - trough over EC, ridging out west and over the arctic

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 01, 2023 5:36 pm

The models will continue to struggle with this storm evolution for at least another 24 hours IMO.  I still think this has too much working against it to produce.  1/bad antecedent air mass, 2/retreating high pressure, 3/collapsing ridge to the west via fast PAC flow.  I realize there is some optimism for the post D10, but need to start seeing tangible results as we are now in January and can't burn unlimited days.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 01, 2023 7:35 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:500mb on euro conts to look decent. Don’t care about surface right now. Still big differences between gfs and euro leading up to Friday.
It does, but I disagree on not caring about the lower level temps.  The ULL is what you'd want to see closed off and in WV.  What is concerning to me is not seeing a banana high signature pumping in cold air.  Had we had good cold air in place I'd by more optimistic for more than c-1".

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Euro220
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Euro113Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Euro113

There’s too many s/w’s cutting to our west, hence temps in the upper 50s to 60s throughout most of this week. The deep negative out west kills this.

amugs wrote:Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 FlaLhZEXwAEMOGp?format=png&name=medium

Good look here on LR GEFS - trough over EC, ridging out west and over the arctic

Gotta get the EPO negative again. I still can’t believe we’re on our third straight year of Nina. I don’t think I can handle a fourth straight (not gunna happen)

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:34 pm




Hope it is close to this analog year 

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:01 am

Yup. The west is a mess. 🤦🏼‍�

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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 02, 2023 8:53 am

Curious as to why you think,Frank, there will not be a 4th straight Nina year next winter.Statistically remote but still possible.
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 02, 2023 9:06 am

docstox12 wrote:Curious as to why you think,Frank, there will not be a 4th straight Nina year next winter.Statistically remote but still possible.

As it is three in a row has only occurred a small handful of time in recorded History.  As far as Im aware I dont think 4 has ever occured...in recorded history.  I also think there was a dash of willing it not to happen in Franks statement because it has created winter weather lover challenges.  But that's my guess.  Ill let Frank speak for himself.


Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Jan 02, 2023 10:08 am; edited 1 time in total

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 02, 2023 9:09 am

docstox12 wrote:Curious as to why you think,Frank, there will not be a 4th straight Nina year next winter.Statistically remote but still possible.

Aside from never witnessing four consecutive seasons of La Nina, there's evidence that points to ENSO-neutral conditions for this spring and POSSIBLY the emergence of El Nino for next winter.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Capture

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Capture1

This is the oceans way of reacting to the moderate-high La Nina state it has felt for several years now.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 02, 2023 10:31 am

Remember we are in unprecedented times for weather and patterns. I would not be surprised to see a Nuetral ENSO state leaning a tad Negative due to various factors such as Low Solar we had for 2.5 years, massive VEI 6 Volcanic Explosion last year (1-15-22 Honga Tonga), Hadley and Walker cell perturbatons.

If you look atthe maps that JB posted about SST analog - where are warm waters in the PAC?? Wehere the ring of fire underwater volcanoes are located. Willie Soon and ?? did a recent publication on this.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 02, 2023 10:36 am

We have experienced no measurable snowfall with a -4 sigma AO in much of the I95.  I would put this as improbable as much of the I95 in February 2020 having no measurable snowfall in peak climo (once in a lifetime kind of thing). Things are just down right strange. As of now I don't see this year being as bad as 2019/20, but a 16-20" rest of season accumulation on the I95 would be somewhat reasonable based on past similar bad starts. I wouldn't set my sights any higher than that.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 02, 2023 10:37 am


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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 02, 2023 11:26 am

Please post analysis/discussions for 1/6 here. The thread started mostly to keep the long range clean and there is a potential NW for a minor snowfall.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 02, 2023 11:47 am

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 FleK9PAXgAA6lx5?format=jpg&name=900x900

This is a massive storm that will prodcue 40' seas, feet of snow in the mountains and flooding, mudslides. Super Nino effects in a moderate La Nina year. Interesting

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 02, 2023 2:40 pm

Maybe 9/10th some kind of baroclinic zone type of wave?  I don't really see deep cold air sliding down from the arctic in the foreseeable future, so it's probably going to be watching thermal boundary layers on any of these threats until mid-month at least.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Gefs54

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:41 pm

Haw you don't need a deep arctic front as climo climax is the range we are in. 850's will tell the story for this time of year. Just has to be....cold enough and then we wet bulb. A favorable storm track helps as well but even wout it we can get a nice snowfall.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:38 pm

SOI has been cranking in the high positives. When we see about 3-5-7days in a row of negative numbers from the SOI expect a trough and snow in the east about a week later give or take. As JB says “a cattle prod to the atmosphere”. Expect the MJo to make a run too; likely correlating with the SOI.  Just a waiting game. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:46 pm


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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:57 pm

Promising

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 0604c110
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 310e6410
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 3c9b6710

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 02, 2023 8:13 pm

amugs wrote:Haw you don't need a deep arctic front as climo climax is the range we are in. 850's will tell the story for this time of year. Just has to be....cold enough and then we wet bulb. A favorable storm track helps as well but even wout it we can get a nice snowfall.
Definitely Mugs doesn't have to be arctic dome on top of us, but need some fresh cold air pumped in to keep surface cold for weaker waves. This much more so applies to coastal plain. My guess is any coastal plain snow before mid-month is a baroclinic zone wave type of possibility.  Models have been hinting around 10th-11th.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 02, 2023 8:31 pm

This 3 week period 2 years ago produced about 30" of snow in NYC.  Got to keep that ridge from draping the EC.  This was a Nina year. If the longer range is correct on the models (second picture) then we'll make up for lost time, but big IF.  Need the ridge off the east coast for an extended period and skeptical until I see things in the shorter term.



Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 500com10
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Gefs55

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 03, 2023 7:28 am

00z suites last night went back to keeping the negatives over EPO and PNA regions, which maintains the ridge across EC. We need a SSWE to break this pattern.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 03, 2023 7:59 am

Baroclinic zone wave. This has the potential for light snow on Saturday night/Sunday morning.  Few things to consider 1/surface temps especially on the coastal plain will be marginal, 2/how much s/w action we get on the baroclinic zone.  But I'd say it's probably I95 best shot at seeing snowfall on colder surfaces so far this season. Let's see in the next day or two what happens.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Gfs128
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Gfs227

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Tue Jan 03, 2023 9:35 am

From Larry Cosgrove:
Let us go a little more in-depth about the upcoming sudden stratospheric warming event. With an add-on of how the Madden-Julian Oscillation could be an influence in getting a winter re-start in North America in the second half of the month.

I realize with the rather boring temperature display in the USA and Canada, that any talk of an Arctic intrusion may be (mildly putting it....) triggering smirks from people enjoying the (predicted) January Thaw. But for about a week now, all four of the numerical model forecasts for the 10MB level have consistently shown a warming in the stratosphere over Russia that culminates in a (relatively) warm bubble aloft over Alaska, British Columbia and the Yukon Territory after January 15. When you see an SSW episode, look at the general flow, the position of the circumpolar vortex, and the extent of snow and ice cover. Upon doing this, you realize that a "Siberian Express" with cross-polar flow option could occur between January 15 and February 1. This configuration looks much stronger and longer-lived than the December cold surge and Great Lakes storm.

Of course things could change. But when I look at the rather inert Madden-Julian Oscillation, and see the various guidance pulsing the core to southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and a linkage to the now disconnected polar westerlies, you can put together a "trouble brewing" scenario. I have seen similar cases of upper atmospheric disturbances and interplay, and will be looking for one of the northern stream impulses to dig through the southern tier of the U.S., then deepen as it heads up along and/off of the Eastern Seaboard. If the intensification occurs with great surface divergence and upper air convergence, the "Thaw" will leave town in a hurry.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 1672704702344?e=1675900800&v=beta&t=e2M51Gk2FriwePVrrEysBai3swwaU_c4euweMxhN8oE

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 03, 2023 11:20 am

The 8-10th seems to be active window.  Cold enough at all layers? Lots of s/w energy approaching? It was a period of interest of mine due to the baroclinic zone setting up.  Sometimes they can produce if you're on the cold side and a vigorous enough wave rides them.  At some point the rubber has to meet the road around here I'm hoping.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 03, 2023 12:14 pm

heehaw453 wrote:The 8-10th seems to be active window.  Cold enough at all layers? Lots of s/w energy approaching? It was a period of interest of mine due to the baroclinic zone setting up.  Sometimes they can produce if you're on the cold side and a vigorous enough wave rides them.  At some point the rubber has to meet the road around here I'm hoping.


Weenies gonna ween. All those who continue to jump off the bridge for the winter can cont to do so. (Not you btw). I have a feeling something will hit. I was texting a buddy of mine back on Dec 27th and my statement to him was and I quote "Between 7-10th is the transition. First snow threat 9th-12th, more realistic 12th-15th" Like you I still stand by that.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 21 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 03, 2023 12:39 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:The 8-10th seems to be active window.  Cold enough at all layers? Lots of s/w energy approaching? It was a period of interest of mine due to the baroclinic zone setting up.  Sometimes they can produce if you're on the cold side and a vigorous enough wave rides them.  At some point the rubber has to meet the road around here I'm hoping.


Weenies gonna ween.  All those who continue to jump off the bridge for the winter can cont to do so.  (Not you btw).  I have a feeling something will hit.  I was texting a buddy of mine back on Dec 27th and my statement to him was and I quote "Between 7-10th is the transition.  First snow threat 9th-12th, more realistic 12th-15th" Like you I still stand by that.
From my point of view I don't see repeat of winter 19-20 (single digit snowfall for most).  On the other hand, bad start Nina's are not ones where I would bet on seeing avg seasonal snowfall for most.  I think to get there going to have to get clocked by a Godzilla.  But I am open to a change of thoughts as conditions warrant. Surprised

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