Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[Frank_Wx]

Really nice look on the 18z EURO. It feels like we're gaining some momentum. Would love to see the 00z GFS step toward this idea tonight

[jmanley32]

The Canadian model shows well what sroc was talking about.  You get the ULL to close off at that latitude.  That would blow up surface low pressure and slow it down.  W/out a complete close off of the ULL I can't see something like this as the Atlantic flow is too progressive.  I would want to see a more negatively tilted trough too.

Man Euro looks inviting.  So close, so very close.....Damn you models.  Why do you tease us so??????

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/vort500_z500/1673265600/1673740800-mBaBckdrSPg.png

One of them has to be CP.

Duh the tweeker right up front lol, just playing CP, but from how upset you get it's the first one that hit me lmao.

[heehaw453]

Really nice look on the 18z EURO. It feels like we're gaining some momentum. Would love to see the 00z GFS step toward this idea tonight

I lot of the models are showing a closed off ULL in a good location.  We need some more ensemble support too and op run over run consistency.  The next 24/36 hours I think will tell us if we have a shot or not. Anytime you get a close off ULL all bets are off.

[Dunnzoo]

You gotta be f'in kidding me! Nothing for 2 months and now, when I have a flight out to FL on Saturday I have to watch this????

[heehaw453]

Going to take a hard pass on a trough axis in a neutral tilt as it crosses the EC.  You want that more negative for this to come up. This ain't dead, but hard pass IMO.  

One thing that cannot be discounted this season so far is we've had ridging in the PNA domain so at some point maybe that works for us. Models hint at better times w.r.t. to colder pattern in the usual 10 days to let's see.

[sroc4]

Nothing exciting on models overnight. Energy comes onshore this afternoon. By this time tomorrow I’ll write this threat off.

[hyde345]

This threat looks like it's done. It's amazing we can't catch a break this year. I guess I'm lucky I have actually recvd 5 inches this season. January is far from over but it's a real possibility that NYC metro gets skunked again this month. When was the last time December and January produced no measurable snow?

[Scullybutcher]

This threat looks like it's done. It's amazing we can't catch a break this year. I guess I'm lucky I have actually recvd 5 inches this season. January is far from over but it's a real possibility that NYC metro gets skunked again this month. When was the last time December and January produced no measurable snow?

I feel most of my life

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This threat looks like it's done. It's amazing we can't catch a break this year. I guess I'm lucky I have actually recvd 5 inches this season. January is far from over but it's a real possibility that NYC metro gets skunked again this month. When was the last time December and January produced no measurable snow?

Short answer, it has never happened.

The closest was two of the winters from the nightmare 1990's.

1994/95 0.2 inches in January a trace in December

1997/98 0.5 inches in January a trace in December

Another record within their reach. So excited.

Of course both winters were in close proximity to two classic winters of snow and something everyone seems to forget sustained cold, foreign to many under 30's.

1993/94 53.4 inches with over 100 in many parts of the HV Hyde.
1995/96 75.6 inches with again many parts of NW NJ and SENY and NWCT over 100 inches. Parts of LI were in the 90-100 inch range.

[hyde345]

This threat looks like it's done. It's amazing we can't catch a break this year. I guess I'm lucky I have actually recvd 5 inches this season. January is far from over but it's a real possibility that NYC metro gets skunked again this month. When was the last time December and January produced no measurable snow?

Short answer, it has never happened.

The closest was two of the winters from the nightmare 1990's.

1994/95 0.2 inches in January a trace in December

1997/98 0.5 inches in January a trace in December

Another record within their reach. So excited.

Of course both winters were in close proximity to two classic winters of snow and something everyone seems to forget sustained cold, foreign to many under 30's.

1993/94 53.4 inches with over 100 in many parts of the HV Hyde.
1995/96 75.6 inches with again many parts of NW NJ and SENY and NWCT over 100 inches. Parts of LI were in the 90-100 inch range.

Oh I remember both of those years especially 93-94. It was so cold and never stopped snowing.

[heehaw453]

Personally I don't think CPK will break the 1/28 record for latest measurable snowfall. It's going to be close IMO (like 2nd probably), but think models show enough favorability right now for that perennial 10 days away kind of thing.  I'm hearing lots of chatter on social media about CPK not getting any measurable snowfall this entire season.  That would be like breaking Joe DiMaggio's hit streak IMO and it's not going to happen.

[heehaw453]

This threat looks like it's done. It's amazing we can't catch a break this year. I guess I'm lucky I have actually recvd 5 inches this season. January is far from over but it's a real possibility that NYC metro gets skunked again this month. When was the last time December and January produced no measurable snow?

It's not dead IMO, but this trough needs to be more negatively tilted.  The ULL closing off in NC before hitting the coast is encouraging, but it's not enough unfortunately. The trough tilts but it's too late as modelled right now. 

[sroc4]

This threat looks like it's done. It's amazing we can't catch a break this year. I guess I'm lucky I have actually recvd 5 inches this season. January is far from over but it's a real possibility that NYC metro gets skunked again this month. When was the last time December and January produced no measurable snow?

Short answer, it has never happened.

The closest was two of the winters from the nightmare 1990's.

1994/95 0.2 inches in January a trace in December

1997/98 0.5 inches in January a trace in December

Another record within their reach. So excited.

Of course both winters were in close proximity to two classic winters of snow and something everyone seems to forget sustained cold, foreign to many under 30's.

1993/94 53.4 inches with over 100 in many parts of the HV Hyde.
1995/96 75.6 inches with again many parts of NW NJ and SENY and NWCT over 100 inches. Parts of LI were in the 90-100 inch range.

Dont forget 1899-1900 CPK measured 0.1 and 1" Dec Jan respectively. and 1900-1901 0.1 & 2.0

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[sroc4]

This threat looks like it's done. It's amazing we can't catch a break this year. I guess I'm lucky I have actually recvd 5 inches this season. January is far from over but it's a real possibility that NYC metro gets skunked again this month. When was the last time December and January produced no measurable snow?

It's not dead IMO, but this trough needs to be more negatively tilted.  The ULL closing off in NC before hitting the coast is encouraging, but it's not enough unfortunately. The trough tilts but it's too late as modelled right now. 

I know many have already proclaimed the final nail, but I agree Heehaw. With energy still coming ashore throughout the day today, and both the GFS and CMC so far at 12z showing 500mb closing off still, albeit too late to matter, its not dead. But 00z tonight will be telling and 12z tomorrow could be the true final nail in the final coffin.

[heehaw453]

This threat looks like it's done. It's amazing we can't catch a break this year. I guess I'm lucky I have actually recvd 5 inches this season. January is far from over but it's a real possibility that NYC metro gets skunked again this month. When was the last time December and January produced no measurable snow?

It's not dead IMO, but this trough needs to be more negatively tilted.  The ULL closing off in NC before hitting the coast is encouraging, but it's not enough unfortunately. The trough tilts but it's too late as modelled right now. 

I know many have already proclaimed the final nail, but I agree Heehaw.  With energy still coming ashore throughout the day today, and both the GFS and CMC so far at 12z showing 500mb closing off still, albeit too late to matter, its not dead.  But 00z tonight will be telling and 12z tomorrow could be the true final nail in the final coffin.

The Icon still believes.  In seriousness though I wouldn't be surprised if this clipped your area and SNE.  It's really not far off from doing that.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This threat looks like it's done. It's amazing we can't catch a break this year. I guess I'm lucky I have actually recvd 5 inches this season. January is far from over but it's a real possibility that NYC metro gets skunked again this month. When was the last time December and January produced no measurable snow?

It's not dead IMO, but this trough needs to be more negatively tilted.  The ULL closing off in NC before hitting the coast is encouraging, but it's not enough unfortunately. The trough tilts but it's too late as modelled right now. 

I know many have already proclaimed the final nail, but I agree Heehaw.  With energy still coming ashore throughout the day today, and both the GFS and CMC so far at 12z showing 500mb closing off still, albeit too late to matter, its not dead.  But 00z tonight will be telling and 12z tomorrow could be the true final nail in the final coffin.

In the Stephen king classic “pet Sematary” there is an interesting conversation where one of the protagonist says to someone contemplating burying someone in the old Indian burial ground to see if they could be brought back from the dead, “You should think long and hard about that, sometimes dead is better”

Just my thoughts on this storm and season we use to reference as Winter.

[phil155]

This threat looks like it's done. It's amazing we can't catch a break this year. I guess I'm lucky I have actually recvd 5 inches this season. January is far from over but it's a real possibility that NYC metro gets skunked again this month. When was the last time December and January produced no measurable snow?

Short answer, it has never happened.

The closest was two of the winters from the nightmare 1990's.

1994/95 0.2 inches in January a trace in December

1997/98 0.5 inches in January a trace in December

Another record within their reach. So excited.

Of course both winters were in close proximity to two classic winters of snow and something everyone seems to forget sustained cold, foreign to many under 30's.

1993/94 53.4 inches with over 100 in many parts of the HV Hyde.
1995/96 75.6 inches with again many parts of NW NJ and SENY and NWCT over 100 inches. Parts of LI were in the 90-100 inch range.

Dont forget 1899-1900  CPK measured 0.1 and 1" Dec Jan respectively.  and 1900-1901 0.1 & 2.0

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

I guess if we have a very poor winter this year We can maybe look forward to a pretty big year next year

[Frank_Wx]

Going to take a hard pass on a trough axis in a neutral tilt as it crosses the EC.  You want that more negative for this to come up. This ain't dead, but hard pass IMO.  

One thing that cannot be discounted this season so far is we've had ridging in the PNA domain so at some point maybe that works for us. Models hint at better times w.r.t. to colder pattern in the usual 10 days to let's see.

Ehhh, the PNA ridging has mostly been transient ahead of large wave breaks across the Pacific. The PAC jet during these La Niña winters has killed A LOT of our storm threats. It’s important for the MJO to work in our favor. It keeps the ridge in place.

I really like what I see at the end of the month. There’s a threat around the 20th. I think that’s still too early. But once we get to the 25th and beyond I think we’ll be looking at some late nights

For the record - I think Saturday will not materialize. It was a long shot to begin with, but the EURO yesterday had a very interesting look at H5. Doubt we see it go back to that idea at this juncture

[heehaw453]

There's still just enough for eastern areas to still watch this IMO.

18Z Euro is closing off the ULL.  I don't think it's quite set in stone yet whether or not it closes off in time to tilt that trough.  The Icon has been insistent on this coming up and looks very similar to the 18Z Euro.  I agree odds are against it, but you never when an ULL closes off in time what can happen.

[weatherwatchermom]

Nick Gregory not too keen on pattern change in 10to 12 days..🤬

[jmanley32]

Lock it up, time to track t-storms and hurricanes...jk..but for real this is getting beyond rediculous. Feb better produce something. Watch we get snow in March April and May lmao hey thats MAM for the new winter season.

[sroc4]

Well I’m just about ready to lock this one up. (Deeeeep Sigh)

[phil155]

This winter is just plain depressing. Just bring on the warm weather so I can use my new patio and get out on my road bike

[weatherwatchermom]

Well I’m just about ready to lock this one up. (Deeeeep Sigh)

Deep sigh is it right... And this is how I look at it...last year of son home to shovel..last few years he has done the heavy lift.  Next winter will prob be be a doozy..he might be in Boston and be freezing his butt off, while husband and I dig out alone

[heehaw453]

Well I’m just about ready to lock this one up. (Deeeeep Sigh)

Yeah probably just won't get its act together in time.

Updated
If you just get this guy to close off right here a completely separate ballgame. But this is the winter of 2022-23 and it doesn't roll that way.

[phil155]

This winter is just getting more and more depressing

[heehaw453]

This winter is just getting more and more depressing

There is some hope for the 10 day LR, but in reality it cannot be trusted and this winter says this about hope.

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