Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

by Coachgriff Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:09 am

I don’t buy temp predictions two weeks down the road….but….nearly 60 for Valentine’s Day….wild!

by **phil155** Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:40 am

Coachgriff wrote:I don’t buy temp predictions two weeks down the road….but….nearly 60 for Valentine’s Day….wild!

If it is going to be that warm I will be bbqing for valentines day

by **frank 638** Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:36 pm

Frozen.9 wrote:Next week the 7th/8th looks like in the 50's for NYC...gotta laugh.

Yup yup hurry about that I wouldn’t be surprised if we have snow in April

by **lglickman1** Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:31 pm

Is there any cold air in the forecast after this weekend's brief cold shot?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:57 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Is there any cold air in the forecast after this weekend's brief cold shot?

Nada

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 31, 2023 9:01 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:Is there any cold air in the forecast after this weekend's brief cold shot?

Nada

I believe the word you’re looking for is Oogatz

by **Irish** Wed Feb 01, 2023 7:02 am

Man, I see you guys discussing it. How sad after this brief taste of winter weather, we will see temps in the 50s, near 60 on some days for the next 2 weeks! This winter has absolutely sucked. Enjoy the mood flakes today.

I can't believe that we're into February and will go halfway through it without really tracking any true storm threats this winter.

by **amugs** Thu Feb 02, 2023 10:54 am

PLEASE BE RIGHT!!!

A WEAK NINO! or POSITIVE NUETRAL

Winter - Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 32 Fn94qyUacAIDWRV?format=jpg&name=small

by **amugs** Fri Feb 03, 2023 1:02 pm

A VA FUNGUL!! Nina rearing its ugly head again with cooler water upwelling in the central pac reinforcing this - ENSO base state!!

ECMWF Weeklies highlight a similar idea over the next 10 days. A strong EWB will manifest near the IDL which should upwell cooler waters over the Central Pacific. It also forecasts stronger trade winds persisting near Niña 3.4 heading into March which may prolong -ENSO. https://t.co/0mZHWBpenl pic.twitter.com/5XB1iCSSTL
— Kaylan Patel (@WxPatel) February 3, 2023

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Feb 03, 2023 1:35 pm

A valiant try by you all season mugs but sometimes you just have to do as Steve Buscemi said in Armageddon when the asteroid seemed inevitably ready to hit the earth “it’s time to embrace the horror”. I’m paraphrasing here, “we have ringside seats for the worst winter in the recorded history of the New York City tri-state area”

by **amugs** Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:52 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A valiant try by you all season mugs but sometimes you just have to do as Steve Buscemi said in Armageddon when the asteroid seemed inevitably ready to hit the earth “it’s time to embrace the horror”. I’m paraphrasing here, “we have ringside seats for the worst winter in the recorded history of the New York City tri-state area”

CP that was a great paraphrase but I tihnk afte a decade plus from Channel 7 through here I look for ++ and if it isn't meant to be so be it and we learn and move on brothers and sisters. BUT I shall give it my best until the stroid goes boom. And I shall embrace it as well as my fate!!

by **Grselig** Fri Feb 03, 2023 4:07 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A valiant try by you all season mugs but sometimes you just have to do as Steve Buscemi said in Armageddon when the asteroid seemed inevitably ready to hit the earth “it’s time to embrace the horror”. I’m paraphrasing here, “we have ringside seats for the worst winter in the recorded history of the New York City tri-state area”

I forgot the conclusion of the movie. Did they get anihilated?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Feb 03, 2023 5:11 pm

The storm threat toward the middle of the month looks kinda legit

by **billg315** Fri Feb 03, 2023 5:33 pm

In an effort to be positive I will say that putting aside any chance for a March 2018 redux, even in an awful winter you can sometimes catch one epic storm where everything comes together perfectly (I think that largely happened in 2016 with that end of January storm). So as much as I’ve written off this winter as a stinker, I don’t doubt we could get one big storm between now and mid-March.

by **lglickman1** Fri Feb 03, 2023 6:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The storm threat toward the middle of the month looks kinda legit

Sounds encouraging, hopefully we get something to go our way for once this winter

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Feb 03, 2023 6:21 pm

Grselig wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A valiant try by you all season mugs but sometimes you just have to do as Steve Buscemi said in Armageddon when the asteroid seemed inevitably ready to hit the earth “it’s time to embrace the horror”. I’m paraphrasing here, “we have ringside seats for the worst winter in the recorded history of the New York City tri-state area”

I forgot the conclusion of the movie. Did they get anihilated?

No, Bruce Willis stayed behind and set off the nuke destroying the asteroid and saving the planet.

Our fate this wing I’m afraid will not have as positive an ending.

by **Grselig** Fri Feb 03, 2023 6:34 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Grselig wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A valiant try by you all season mugs but sometimes you just have to do as Steve Buscemi said in Armageddon when the asteroid seemed inevitably ready to hit the earth “it’s time to embrace the horror”. I’m paraphrasing here, “we have ringside seats for the worst winter in the recorded history of the New York City tri-state area”

I forgot the conclusion of the movie. Did they get anihilated?

No, Bruce Willis stayed behind and set off the nuke destroying the asteroid and saving the planet.

Our fate this wing I’m afraid will not have as positive an ending.

Agreed. Willis can no longer be here to save the day.

by **frank 638** Fri Feb 03, 2023 8:45 pm

Wow winds are screaming !!! Sounds like a
Freight train going by

by **heehaw453** Sun Feb 05, 2023 7:45 am

Some of the models showing some backside energy as the 500mb trough clears the coast. Something minor w.r.t. snow is possible next Friday night/Saturday 2/11-12 especially away from the coast. As per usual surface temps will be an issue and there is nothing in the Atlantic slowing the flow down. But nonetheless a nice ridge is present to our west with a digging trough. So I'd say lower end on the threat possibility all in all.

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by **heehaw453** Sun Feb 05, 2023 3:06 pm

Marginal temps setup and poor Atlantic setup will probably will find any way it can to snow around here, but peak climo for many so maybe something happens here. Models don't have a good handle on this yet, but digging 500mb trough with decent ridging with peak climo. Any other year I'd say this has a chance for something minor/moderate.

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by **sroc4** Sun Feb 05, 2023 4:22 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Marginal temps setup and poor Atlantic setup will probably will find any way it can to snow around here, but peak climo for many so maybe something happens here. Models don't have a good handle on this yet, but digging 500mb trough with decent ridging with peak climo. Any other year I'd say this has a chance for something minor/moderate.

As has been the case at this lead time look west of the ridge. There is plenty of energy looming; waiting to crash the west coast and knock down the ridge right as the energy approaches the coast. Timing is everything and this year just doesn’t want to work. Agreed it’s something to monitor given the factors you mention but…

by **phil155** Sun Feb 05, 2023 4:55 pm

With everything I have for next weekend I need nice weather both days so of course this longshot will work out. I got my driveway paved in the summer in large part just so I could shovel easier and we had nothing so since I need nice weather next weekend it will find a way to snow. I love snow but next weekend I need good weather

by **heehaw453** Mon Feb 06, 2023 7:46 am

phil155 wrote:With everything I have for next weekend I need nice weather both days so of course this longshot will work out. I got my driveway paved in the summer in large part just so I could shovel easier and we had nothing so since I need nice weather next weekend it will find a way to snow. I love snow but next weekend I need good weather

This weekend's trailing energy won't have a good air mass to work with and will probably develop rapidly in the Gulf of Maine giving them a good snowfall. If it developed off the Jersey coast that would have been our shot, but there's nothing in the Atlantic to facilitate slow movement. There probably will be .5"-1" of a soaking rain though right in peak snowfall climo for many. Futility will continue for the foreseeable future and may challenge all time records. Quite a season we're having.

by **amugs** Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:40 pm

I know we've seen this in LR and we'll see what it shows next week but it has had this look for straight 3 days know.

Models are at it again with another stratospheric warming effort next week. Prior event under-performed expectations, but this one is aiming somewhat stronger and could impact North American patterns by early spring, pending verification. pic.twitter.com/0IugxZYeOD
— Commodity Wx Group (@commoditywx) February 6, 2023

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:50 pm

Could impact North American patterns by early spring? No thanks at this point I’ll pass.

Even seeing a shot of some snow up here on Saturday seems pointless with temperatures 50 two days later. This is making some of those years in the late 90’s seem frigid in comparison. Forget what it snowed such and such a year this is just record days of above normal day after day after day after day after day.

by **heehaw453** Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:20 pm

Models starting to show the trailing energy blow up in more favorable areas. 18Z GFS is Delmarva where the 12Z Euro was off Jersey Coast. Tomorrow it'll be Portland ME folks.

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by **amugs** Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:40 pm

All but 5 of the 51 ECMWF ensemble runs (i.e. 90%) have a tech. sudden stratospheric warming event sometime 15th-17th Feb.

The mean hits -10 m/s which would be good going for a displacement type event (the current majority vote).

A few hit -20 or lower, impressive territory. pic.twitter.com/OS4XgjNQzC
— James Peacock (@peacockreports) February 6, 2023

This could be terrible for our Met Spring if not end of February!!! Argghhh

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