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weatherwatchermom
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Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 01, 2022 6:43 am

Found this clip of the Dec.11-12 1960 snowstorm taken in Suffern NY which was just "up the road apiece" from where I lived in Mahwah NJ for 35 years.Looks pretty much the same today! I was 10 at the time and would be playing in the snow like these kids in the video.Happy days for me! Video where it was still snowing taken on the morning of the 12th.I think it stopped around 11:30 or 12 noon.Love those old cars, many old heaps from the 40's and 50's on the road in 1960, so simple that at age 12,I was already working on them.First big job was change a water pump on a 1954 DeSoto in 1962.Old heads on this site will be able to relate,LOL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gstr2eYE6H8
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Post by HectorO Tue Nov 01, 2022 7:06 am

Do we no longer do winter predictions? Wanted to know what some of you were thinking for this winter.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:07 am

HectorO wrote:Do we no longer do winter predictions? Wanted to know what some of you were thinking for this winter.

A third straight season of moderate La Nina conditions kinda scares me, but many other factors to consider. The SSTA's over the PDO region are warmer than normal, which can help establish a -EPO/+PNA, but that will also depend on the status of our MJO and whether it can generate tropical waves against a raging La Nina.

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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:10 am

docstox12 wrote:Found this clip of the Dec.11-12 1960 snowstorm taken in Suffern NY which was just "up the road apiece" from where I lived in Mahwah NJ for 35 years.Looks pretty much the same today! I was 10 at the time and would be playing in the snow like these kids in the video.Happy days for me! Video where it was still snowing taken on the morning of the 12th.I think it stopped around 11:30 or 12 noon.Love those old cars, many old heaps from the 40's and 50's on the road in 1960, so simple that at age 12,I was already working on them.First big job was change a water pump on a 1954 DeSoto in 1962.Old heads on this site will be able to relate,LOL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gstr2eYE6H8

Doc, your stories...and your storytelling... heartwarming and fascinating!

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:51 am

HectorO wrote:Do we no longer do winter predictions? Wanted to know what some of you were thinking for this winter.

It’s an unprecedented time, isn't it always, with the winter weather. Why do I say such, well as Frank pointed out we have 3rd straight moderate La Nina at play in the tropics (usually promotes a SE Ridge), we have a warm blob of water in the Gulf of Alaska )promotes a N EPO), we have the MASSIVE amounts of water vapor from the Hunga Tonga Jan 15th volcano that has crossed the equator and is presently making its way north, we have a weakening magnetosphere allowing for the suns cosmic rays influx as well as the galactic sheet as to penetrate our lower atmospheres (Stratosphere), SH had a terrible winter - there is correlation between the two and a colder than normal and snowy spring so far, big source of cold air brewing up N with an extensive projection of snow for this region as well, and we have anamously warm North Atlantic waters that show promote a N NAO.
All these factor may point to a wild winter with big swings and longer periods of winter. I am the forever winter weenie I know but I like what I am seeing from these. I just do not go by La Nina and call it a day. Is it an influencer, absolutely and will add to the wild swings in my opinion as winter fights hard!
Exciting times to be alive!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:09 am

Well the Accuweather winter outlook has our area only getting 50-75% of our normal snowfall. I guess that is that!

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Post by HectorO Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:54 am

amugs wrote:
HectorO wrote:Do we no longer do winter predictions? Wanted to know what some of you were thinking for this winter.

It’s an unprecedented time, isn't it always, with the winter weather. Why do I say such, well as Frank pointed out we have 3rd straight moderate La Nina at play in the tropics (usually promotes a SE Ridge), we have a warm blob of water in the Gulf of Alaska )promotes a N EPO), we have the MASSIVE amounts of water vapor from the Hunga Tonga Jan 15th volcano that has crossed the equator and is presently making its way north, we have a weakening magnetosphere allowing for the suns cosmic rays influx as well as the galactic sheet as to penetrate our lower atmospheres (Stratosphere), SH had a terrible winter - there is correlation between the two and a colder than normal and snowy spring so far, big source of cold air brewing up N with an extensive projection of snow for this region as well, and we have anamously warm North Atlantic waters that show promote a N NAO.
All these factor may point to a wild winter with big swings and longer periods of winter. I am the forever winter weenie I know but I like what I am seeing from these. I just do not go by La Nina and call it a day. Is it an influencer, absolutely and will add to the wild swings in my opinion as winter fights hard!
Exciting times to be alive!!

Thanks! The past few years October has been fairly cold, and this was the first Halloween where I didn't need a sweater in a couple of years. I'd rather have a warmer October and a colder late November-December for the holidays. But it's definitely confusing to see what will take place and how big the swings will be when you have weeks like this and next week, where temps are reaching mid 70s in mid November. I remember warm soupy December's when November is a too warm. But then again I can't even remember what I ate for dinner last night besides candy. So let the games begin!
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Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:10 am

[quote="SENJsnowman"]
docstox12 wrote:Found this clip of the Dec.11-12 1960 snowstorm taken in Suffern NY which was just "up the road apiece" from where I lived in Mahwah NJ for 35 years.Looks pretty much the same today! I was 10 at the time and would be playing in the snow like these kids in the video.Happy days for me! Video where it was still snowing taken on the morning of the 12th.I think it stopped around 11:30 or 12 noon.Love those old cars, many old heaps from the 40's and 50's on the road in 1960, so simple that at age 12,I was already working on them.First big job was change a water pump on a 1954 DeSoto in 1962.Old heads on this site will be able to relate,LOL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gstr2eYE6H8

Doc, your stories...and your storytelling... heartwarming and fascinating! [/quote

TY, SENJ, as Jimmy Durante used to say "I got a million of them"!,LOL

Don't have a clue about the coming winter formulated by my seat of the pants analog way.Have not seen a pattern as of yet as to figuring it out yet.Early signal to me would be big swings from cold to mild with hopefully storms in the cold period.Let's see how the month of November pans out.Very mild period this week through the weekend.
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:13 am

HectorO wrote:
amugs wrote:
HectorO wrote:Do we no longer do winter predictions? Wanted to know what some of you were thinking for this winter.

It’s an unprecedented time, isn't it always, with the winter weather. Why do I say such, well as Frank pointed out we have 3rd straight moderate La Nina at play in the tropics (usually promotes a SE Ridge), we have a warm blob of water in the Gulf of Alaska )promotes a N EPO), we have the MASSIVE amounts of water vapor from the Hunga Tonga Jan 15th volcano that has crossed the equator and is presently making its way north, we have a weakening magnetosphere allowing for the suns cosmic rays influx as well as the galactic sheet as to penetrate our lower atmospheres (Stratosphere), SH had a terrible winter - there is correlation between the two and a colder than normal and snowy spring so far, big source of cold air brewing up N with an extensive projection of snow for this region as well, and we have anamously warm North Atlantic waters that show promote a N NAO.
All these factor may point to a wild winter with big swings and longer periods of winter. I am the forever winter weenie I know but I like what I am seeing from these. I just do not go by La Nina and call it a day. Is it an influencer, absolutely and will add to the wild swings in my opinion as winter fights hard!
Exciting times to be alive!!

Thanks! The past few years October has been fairly cold, and this was the first Halloween where I didn't need a sweater in a couple of years. I'd rather have a warmer October and a colder late November-December for the holidays. But it's definitely confusing to see what will take place and how big the swings will be when you have weeks like this and next week, where temps are reaching mid 70s in mid November. I remember warm soupy December's when November is a too warm. But then again I can't even remember what I ate for dinner last night besides candy. So let the games begin!

Signs pointing to an elongated PV in the mid Nov timeframe and the models have been hinting at this for the past 4-5 days now. I thinkits a fast start of 30-45 days worth from about Turkey Dayish week until 1st week of Januray then a relaxation then we reload from Late Jan through early March. When we relax and warm up the west gets clobbered as it is now. Remember where once side is warm the other side is cold, the Meridional Jet Structure flow.

EPS Weeklies saying this as well and have been for about a week now.

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:22 am

docstox12 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Found this clip of the Dec.11-12 1960 snowstorm taken in Suffern NY which was just "up the road apiece" from where I lived in Mahwah NJ for 35 years.Looks pretty much the same today! I was 10 at the time and would be playing in the snow like these kids in the video.Happy days for me! Video where it was still snowing taken on the morning of the 12th.I think it stopped around 11:30 or 12 noon.Love those old cars, many old heaps from the 40's and 50's on the road in 1960, so simple that at age 12,I was already working on them.First big job was change a water pump on a 1954 DeSoto in 1962.Old heads on this site will be able to relate,LOL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gstr2eYE6H8

Doc, your stories...and your storytelling... heartwarming and fascinating! [/quote

TY, SENJ, as Jimmy Durante used to say "I got a million of them"!,LOL

Don't have a clue about the coming winter formulated by my seat of the pants analog way.Have not seen a pattern as of yet as to figuring it out yet.Early signal to me would be big swings from cold to mild with hopefully storms in the cold period.Let's see how the month of November pans out.Very mild period this week through the weekend.

I vehemently agree with the words spoken of the above. He is a treasure on this board. That snowstorm was a good old fashion one for sure. The neighborhood had to be brand new. Love the 9MM recording, the kids sledding and skiing on the side of a house!! Pork Chops .45 a lbs momma mia, dolly the hog was probably a block over at the farm back then up here!!

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:37 am

amugs wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Found this clip of the Dec.11-12 1960 snowstorm taken in Suffern NY which was just "up the road apiece" from where I lived in Mahwah NJ for 35 years.Looks pretty much the same today! I was 10 at the time and would be playing in the snow like these kids in the video.Happy days for me! Video where it was still snowing taken on the morning of the 12th.I think it stopped around 11:30 or 12 noon.Love those old cars, many old heaps from the 40's and 50's on the road in 1960, so simple that at age 12,I was already working on them.First big job was change a water pump on a 1954 DeSoto in 1962.Old heads on this site will be able to relate,LOL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gstr2eYE6H8

Doc, your stories...and your storytelling... heartwarming and fascinating! [/quote

TY, SENJ, as Jimmy Durante used to say "I got a million of them"!,LOL

Don't have a clue about the coming winter formulated by my seat of the pants analog way.Have not seen a pattern as of yet as to figuring it out yet.Early signal to me would be big swings from cold to mild with hopefully storms in the cold period.Let's see how the month of November pans out.Very mild period this week through the weekend.

I vehemently agree with the words spoken of the above. He is a treasure on this board. That snowstorm was a good old fashion one for sure. The neighborhood had to be brand new. Love the 9MM recording, the kids sledding and skiing on the side of a house!! Pork Chops .45 a lbs momma mia, dolly the hog was probably a block over at the farm back then up here!!

Right, Mugsy, dig those crazy prices!
To put that in perspective, if I shoveled a neighbors walk in that storm and got a half dollar ( 50 cent pieces were in wide circulation in 1960, silver mind you) you could buy the following:
1) 5 Superman comics at 10 cents apiece
2) 10 packs of baseball cards including 5 cards and a big slab of bubblegum that kept my dentist in business
3) 5 Hershey bars
or if you wanted to really shoot the works
4) 50 pieces of Bazooka Joe bubblegum complete with a comic!

When the snows melted, you could spend a day raising cash by collecting bottles to get the deposits. 2 cents for a small Coke or Pepsi bottle and a nickel for a larger Cott ( "It's COTT to be good") or Hoffman bottle.Did that once in the summer of 1962 to buy a 1909 vdb Lincoln Cent for my coin collection from the old timer who owned the coin store in Fort Lee ,Hans the Kraut,LOL.Paid 55 cents and still have that coin today.

Anyway, the weather figured into everything you did as a kid back then as you spent most of your time out of doors.
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 01, 2022 11:49 am

Some spring in Aussie Aussie Aussie Oye Oye Oye Land!!

Banter Thread 8.0 Fgd62eRaEAId5jb?format=jpg&name=medium

And South America as well

Banter Thread 8.0 Fgd620aaAAAtokh?format=jpg&name=medium

I am going to say its a volcanic spring and summer setting up for the Southern Hemisphere.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:33 pm

amugs wrote:Some spring in Aussie Aussie Aussie Oye Oye Oye Land!!

Banter Thread 8.0 Fgd62eRaEAId5jb?format=jpg&name=medium

And South America as well

Banter Thread 8.0 Fgd620aaAAAtokh?format=jpg&name=medium

I am going to say its a volcanic spring and summer setting up for the Southern Hemisphere.

Wow that's pretty impressive to say the least

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:53 pm

^^^ Its going to lead to crop isssues again for these regions. Year 2 for this as they had massive crop issues last year. Couple this weather with what is happening in US drought this summer we have a trooubling outlook on the horizon for food supplies let alone prices.

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Post by billg315 Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:52 pm

I've kind of given up on "seasonal" outlooks. There are some people - some on here - who really have a knack for it and do pretty well. But for the most part, there are just so many variables at play over the course of 3 or 4 months that I just don't think the reliability of it is anything to hang your hat on. I think our long-range discussions (i.e. looking a few weeks in advance for changing patterns) are kind of the outer limits of true reliability.

But, doesn't stop me from checking out the Farmer's Almanac just for the fun of it. Laughing
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Post by amugs Thu Nov 03, 2022 10:08 pm

Your 1st snow ooofle maps from EPS Weeklies. If tjis has any clue Holy Moly.

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Post by docstox12 Thu Nov 10, 2022 2:49 pm

Possible first flakes of the season Tuesday night up here, 32 degrees and snow.
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Post by dkodgis Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:41 pm

Doc, I lived everything you said BUT the quart bottler fetched 10 cents. You could buy a 10 cent soda and get two jelly krimpits for two quart bottles, redeemed. 

No one had the designation “kraut”. They only had to answer this question:  “Are you German…or Swiss?” which was an incendiary event. Coin collections, stamp, collections, comic book collections, and baseball card collections were what we looked at-not at our phones. Kids cut grass, shoveled snow, pumped gas, or worked on farms. With our summer earnings, in my area parents took kids to the dry goods store to buy jeans and t-shirts. Unchained Melody was the song to slow-dance to at the 6th grade dance. Tomatoes were cheaper. It was colder. There was more snow. AM-radio was our Alexa.  Now …
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Post by docstox12 Thu Nov 10, 2022 6:53 pm

dkodgis wrote:Doc, I lived everything you said BUT the quart bottler fetched 10 cents. You could buy a 10 cent soda and get two jelly krimpits for two quart bottles, redeemed. 

No one had the designation “kraut”. They only had to answer this question:  “Are you German…or Swiss?” which was an incendiary event. Coin collections, stamp, collections, comic book collections, and baseball card collections were what we looked at-not at our phones. Kids cut grass, shoveled snow, pumped gas, or worked on farms. With our summer earnings, in my area parents took kids to the dry goods store to buy jeans and t-shirts. Unchained Melody was the song to slow-dance to at the 6th grade dance. Tomatoes were cheaper. It was colder. There was more snow. AM-radio was our Alexa.  Now …

Damian, inflation on that 10 cents versus my 5 cents,LOL.
Next time I see you I will bring my "Mars Attacks" Topps repro set which was originally out in 1962.They were so gruesome, parents complained and they were pulled off the market.Bet you remember on the radio the WMCA "Good Guy Sweatshirts" and Cousin Brucie on WABC broadcasting from Palisades Amusement Park, where maybe the Temptations or the Supremes were doing a show that night.What a shame I had to grow up,LOL.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 13, 2022 8:27 pm

Ahh our first redonculous clown map of the year! Or the first one I have seen yet. A blizzard in Late Nov. all way down the the coast.

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Post by frank 638 Sun Nov 13, 2022 8:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Ahh our first redonculous clown map of the year! Or the first one I have seen yet. A blizzard in Late Nov. all way down the the coast.

Banter Thread 8.0 Gfs_as11
the way November has been so far from 80 to hurricane in Florida .I wouldn’t be surprised lol

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:44 pm


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Nov 14, 2022 2:40 pm

Ahh what I've been harping on for months now. FEW have taken this into account for the winter perdictions in the NH. We won't know how bad it maybe until it happens. Usually around 12 month range we see its full efects lasting up to 24 months!!! IT WAS A BEAST!! BUT judging on the SH by even a 25% margin of how cold it may get well that may just ruin many peeps idea of a warm winter. The weather models can't ingest this either into their statsistical analysis. Great read.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratosphere-polar-vortex-cooling-event-update-cold-anomaly-winter-season-influence-fa/

"Combining multiple analysis systems, you can see that the eruption column reached a high altitude. But it also remained there for quite a while. After reaching the peak in the Mesosphere, the large volcanic cloud remained in the mid to upper stratosphere, circling the entire hemisphere."

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Post by dkodgis Mon Nov 14, 2022 2:52 pm

The eruption was from under the water. I looked up 146 teragrams that equals the estimated displacement of water. In gallons: 1219429049997

If I read the conversion right from www.unitconverters.net then that is 1.22 trillion gallons. That’s mucha agua.  About as much I drank of beer in college
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:26 pm

frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Ahh our first redonculous clown map of the year! Or the first one I have seen yet. A blizzard in Late Nov. all way down the the coast.

Banter Thread 8.0 Gfs_as11
the way November has been so far from 80 to hurricane in Florida .I wouldn’t be surprised lol

lol it probably will happen..we are traveling for the first time ever during the holiday week and will be arriving home from a trip to Central America on Sunday the 27th...LOL
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