Re: Banter Thread 8.0

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Nov 24, 2022 10:18 am

Happy Thanksgiving! Hope everyone gets to enjoy this beautiful day, nice to be able to cook with the windows open!

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Nov 24, 2022 10:30 am

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!!! Leave no plate unturned

by **frank 638** Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:07 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!!! Leave no plate unturned

happy Thanksgiving Frank we have so much food and I tell my family Not to go crazy but what do you expect from a old school Italian LOL we have antipasto Turkey Italian stuffing broccoli rob stuffed mushrooms mashed potatoes sweet potato casserole Italian cheesecake and Nutella cheesecake if anybody’s hungry please come over lol happy Thanksgiving

by **Irish** Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:59 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Going out about 10 days on the EPS. That's about my limit for ensembles h5 analysis. Kind of like what Mugs has been showing. This projected pattern is zonal and with NAO blocking storms tend to slide underneath the area. However, as long as the PNA stays a bit negative you won't get big amplified storms most likely and not arctic express to drive cold air in right to the coast.

So my thought is NW of I95 have some chances, albeit modest ones in beginning of December and the coast will probably need to wait for the PNA to allow deeper cold air into the area. Maybe on/after 12/10 for coast. If we can get NAO blocking to assert itself and just a bit of cooperation from the PNA then we'll have an active December for tracking. December snows have been rather elusive for the most part especially along the coast for past several years, so it'd be nice change of fortunes.

I cant say I disagree at all with the ideas between now and Dec 5th-7th. That said after that time frame, reading between the tea leaves as we head out beyond the 5th or so, is really encouraging IMHO; setting the stage for a cold temp anomaly regime for a decent amount of time in the eastern half of the CONUS. Its starting to show itself in the means. This End of run EPS is drool worthy with a neg EPO and neg NAO on the table here pushing the trop PV around the Hudson Bay. This exactly where you want that gyre spinning sending pieces of polar energy south to play with energy coming out of the SW sub trop and or Pac jet. GEFS similar. That said its all at the very end of the time frame so Im tempering all expectations at this time frame. But again reading the tea leaves(STAT forecasts and Trop forcing's) its encouraging none the less. Regarding the thoughts on the -PNA I would have to agree thata -EPO alone often times isnt enough to set the stage for the coastal plain as this tends to favor amplification of energy too far west which amplifies the WAR out ahead. That said IF and thats a big IF we can get that NAO to cooperate it offers the necessary resistance to push back with cold air over the NE. For now we sit back and enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday and hope the GMEN!! can beat the Cowgirls Thursday.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1669118400/1670414400-Dec9WK5rSjM.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1669118400/1670500800-V2WcgTE5oAk.png

See, you had me at hello...I mean until the bolded garbage about the pretenders beating the Boys. First of all, that ain't happening, Dallas is a way better team and the point spread is showing it. Secondly, Dallas is getting some home cooking, "Giant" Turkey being served up on the Star!

Lol Irish. I love the chirps. But that’s what I’d expect from a Cowgirls fan whose team is built to be a decent regular season team but choke in the playoffs. That’s really got to be horrible to have those expectations each year only to be let down year after year. To be honest I’m not sure how you haven’t jumped ship yet. First Tony Romo, and now Dak a combined playoff record of 3-8. Pretty sad if you ask me.

Now the GMEN. Pretenders? No. Overachievers? Ahead of schedule? Perhaps. But you can clearly see there is a shift taking place in the NFC East. The Cowgirls time is fading my friend. Fading fast.

All chirps aside wishing you and everyone else on the board a very Happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy the time with family and friends.

Sroc, I love seeing responses from knowledgeable football fans! Cowgirls...

You are so spot on! I've hated my football Fandom for going on 3 decades! I'm never more tortured than when the Boys make the playoffs, as I'm happy they're there but know it'll only last a week and are usually tossed in painful fashion.

When Romo mishandled that snap for attempted FG against Seattle, then tried to scramble to the end zone, only to fall short of not just the TD but the first down as well, I feel into a deep depression.

Now, you're right, I'm dealing with Dak and the injuries and up and down play.

The Gmen have absolutely overachieved as they weren't expected to do much this year. I do fear that the chances at playoff success and a Superbowl for my Boys is waning and that we'll be back to rebuilding on offense especially. We'll see...

However, enjoy your day! It's all about Family, friends, football, food and fun. Although, my son asked, "What about the farts?!"

by **sroc4** Thu Nov 24, 2022 2:15 pm

The farts!!! I’m literally laughing out loud because my wife complains about that too!

by **docstox12** Fri Nov 25, 2022 6:35 am

sroc4 wrote:The farts!!! I’m literally laughing out loud because my wife complains about that too!

Glad to see this tradition is alive and well.
It was proven to me back in 1969 what the content of a fart really is when my room mate at the time the year I stayed at Steven's Tech in Hoboken demonstrated to me just that.He told me to "watch this" as he lit a match and held it next to his posterior area and cut a huge one which resulted in a flame about 6 inches long! Took me 10 minutes to regain composure after screaming out loud laughing.Possible solution to the heating crisis coming this winter? You tell me,LOL.

by **sroc4** Fri Nov 25, 2022 6:46 am

docstox12 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:The farts!!! I’m literally laughing out loud because my wife complains about that too!

Glad to see this tradition is alive and well.
It was proven to me back in 1969 what the content of a fart really is when my room mate at the time the year I stayed at Steven's Tech in Hoboken demonstrated to me just that.He told me to "watch this" as he lit a match and held it next to his posterior area and cut a huge one which resulted in a flame about 6 inches long! Took me 10 minutes to regain composure after screaming out loud laughing.Possible solution to the heating crisis coming this winter? You tell me,LOL.

by **amugs** Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:19 am

I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving and took a moment to give Thanks for all we have.

This is VERY INTERESTING and looking for more information in the days ahead.
https://electroverse.co/new-study-eastern-pacific-ocean-is-cooling/

by **heehaw453** Wed Nov 30, 2022 12:47 pm

It's not often you see the clown maps show this magnitude of digital snow before 12/15.

by **amugs** Wed Nov 30, 2022 12:51 pm

heehaw453 wrote:It's not often you see the clown maps show this magnitude of digital snow before 12/15.

I'll raise you my house on this LOL:

Banter Thread 8.0 - Page 3 Gfs_asnow24_neus_48

True dat!! Big Dog setting up for the mid month of December as per guidance last night and today so far. Big Dog wx peeps are barking on this too.

Speaking of paging Rb

by **HectorO** Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:38 am

Man, temp differences between North East and Northwest Jersey compared to the city is pretty significant. 12 degree difference is huge.

by **docstox12** Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:13 pm

HectorO wrote:Man, temp differences between North East and Northwest Jersey compared to the city is pretty significant. 12 degree difference is huge.

Hi, Hector, good to see you!
You are 100% right on that.I live in the Lower Hudson Valley in Monroe, and the difference from where we used to live in Mahwah to here is about 5 degrees.More snow up here for sure as I have witnessed it and lived here since 2014.Heat shield NYC is real.

by **amugs** Mon Dec 05, 2022 1:57 pm

Cold and snowy weather has arrived in northern #Japan with -17.0°C in Rikubetsu, the lowest temperature of the season.
In the famous station of Sukayu onsen, near Aomori, heavy #snow has been falling for a few days (snow depth is 121 cm).
49 cm/24 h
67 cm/48 h
89 cm/72 h pic.twitter.com/3Ee1TdFmhf
— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) December 5, 2022

WOW - again like last year.

by **rb924119** Tue Dec 06, 2022 8:10 am

It’s been brought to my attention that I’ve been M.I.A. since September (you know who you are lol), and there was some concern that I might have spontaneously combusted. I am fine, and all is well (very well, actually): I’ve just been super busy, working two jobs totaling seven days a week since early October lol I have a couple different irons in the proverbial fire regarding my career path which have been slowly progressing over the last few years. Now, the final cast is being poured, and things are starting to come together, so I’ve had to really buckle down, focus, and start making moves. It’s been a lot of work to this point, but I think this final push should be winding down over the next few months, and if all goes well, I’ll be working for myself 2x over, doing what I love - firewood and weather. And the weather part of it, I think and truly believe, will be something that we will all be able to enjoy and use to add even more value to this already fantabulous forum. But, that’s all I’ll say for now Wink

Anyway, I’m sorry that I haven’t been around, but there are only so many hours in a day. To be honest, I haven’t even looked beyond a Day-5 output since September lol as I said though, hopefully things will start calming down over the next couple/three months and I can get back to forecasting with you all. I sincerely appreciate the concern over my absence, and I don’t want that to be understated. I also promise that it’s been entirely for a good reason Smile

lastly, I hope that you all are having a wonderful holiday season, and you too are all well!

by **docstox12** Tue Dec 06, 2022 7:22 pm

rb924119 wrote:It’s been brought to my attention that I’ve been M.I.A. since September (you know who you are lol), and there was some concern that I might have spontaneously combusted. I am fine, and all is well (very well, actually): I’ve just been super busy, working two jobs totaling seven days a week since early October lol I have a couple different irons in the proverbial fire regarding my career path which have been slowly progressing over the last few years. Now, the final cast is being poured, and things are starting to come together, so I’ve had to really buckle down, focus, and start making moves. It’s been a lot of work to this point, but I think this final push should be winding down over the next few months, and if all goes well, I’ll be working for myself 2x over, doing what I love - firewood and weather. And the weather part of it, I think and truly believe, will be something that we will all be able to enjoy and use to add even more value to this already fantabulous forum. But, that’s all I’ll say for now

Anyway, I’m sorry that I haven’t been around, but there are only so many hours in a day. To be honest, I haven’t even looked beyond a Day-5 output since September lol as I said though, hopefully things will start calming down over the next couple/three months and I can get back to forecasting with you all. I sincerely appreciate the concern over my absence, and I don’t want that to be understated. I also promise that it’s been entirely for a good reason lastly, I hope that you all are having a wonderful holiday season, and you too are all well!

Good to hear from you rb and happy to see an ambitious young man working hard for a bright future.The best of luck in your endeavors and looking forward to your input adding to the amazing Mets we have here!
Is it possible for you to cook up for us a White Christmas,LOL.

by **sroc4** Tue Dec 06, 2022 8:09 pm

docstox12 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:It’s been brought to my attention that I’ve been M.I.A. since September (you know who you are lol), and there was some concern that I might have spontaneously combusted. I am fine, and all is well (very well, actually): I’ve just been super busy, working two jobs totaling seven days a week since early October lol I have a couple different irons in the proverbial fire regarding my career path which have been slowly progressing over the last few years. Now, the final cast is being poured, and things are starting to come together, so I’ve had to really buckle down, focus, and start making moves. It’s been a lot of work to this point, but I think this final push should be winding down over the next few months, and if all goes well, I’ll be working for myself 2x over, doing what I love - firewood and weather. And the weather part of it, I think and truly believe, will be something that we will all be able to enjoy and use to add even more value to this already fantabulous forum. But, that’s all I’ll say for now

Anyway, I’m sorry that I haven’t been around, but there are only so many hours in a day. To be honest, I haven’t even looked beyond a Day-5 output since September lol as I said though, hopefully things will start calming down over the next couple/three months and I can get back to forecasting with you all. I sincerely appreciate the concern over my absence, and I don’t want that to be understated. I also promise that it’s been entirely for a good reason lastly, I hope that you all are having a wonderful holiday season, and you too are all well!

Good to hear from you rb and happy to see an ambitious young man working hard for a bright future.The best of luck in your endeavors and looking forward to your input adding to the amazing Mets we have here!
Is it possible for you to cook up for us a White Christmas,LOL.

Nail on the head Doc. Love to see someone putting in the work to achieve his/hers goals. Best of luck Ray. Can’t wait to see the project you’ve been working on for years now.

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 07, 2022 11:18 pm

How about thaT 18Z snow map out all the way to 384 lmao

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:47 am

jmanley32 wrote:How about thaT 18Z snow map out all the way to 384 lmao

JMAN, this post is aging well so far, lol! Lots of potential apparently for the days leading up to and including Christmas day. Of course, I was planning to drive to Florida, heading out early on the 24th, arriving midday on the 25th. But after looking at the some of yeterday's runs on the GFS, I dunno...

It's kind of hard to justify driving straight into this:

Here is the map key:
A. Southbound I-95, our travel route. B. Northbound I-95, the storm's travel route.
1. Exit 80 GSP
2. Lumberton, NC (about 30 miles NORTH of the border), stopover for the night.
3. Bucceeeeeeeeee's, the beautiful (and right affordable) roadside Smoked Brisket oasis!!!!!
4. Parents/brother and his family in Orange Park/Jax.

My travel window is pretty tight, I might be able to leave Friday the 23rd, but as of now that might not be any better weather wise. Plus, the storm might be already to the south, not just waiting on us, but moving right toward us. So, I'll be tracking this one from a couple of perspectives: Snow weenie and holiday traveler.

Irish wrote:Not being negative here, they rarely are the one. For me, the joy, this time of year, is in the hunt for a White December! They are elusive, but boy do I enjoy the tracking, even if it fails to come to fruition.

SENJsnowman wrote:Well said, Irish! Those are my thoughts/feelings on the matter word for word.

Irish wrote:From very early on when I joined this forum, I always felt like you were my twin when it came to how we felt about winter weather and tracking. The anticipation is my favorite part and the irony is we both struggle to jackpot but love it anyhow!

Irish, right after I sent that post yesterday, I hopped in my car and turned on the radio. What's the first lyrics I hear: "I'm on the hunt and I'm after you!" (Hungry like the Wolf, Duran Duran) That's all it took for me to just get buzzed with excitement. ha ha Yeah, for sure you and I both tend respectfully pass on 'cautious optimism' in favor of full throttled optimism, at least that guarantees some excitement! And yeah, it's a struggle, always. I'm on the coast, where it's usually always warmer. And am I right that in Old Bridge you are kind of in a no-man's-land, too far south a lot and too far north/off the immediate coast a lot?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:50 pm

Looking for some feedback

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t399-nj-strong-member-requests#177025

by **dkodgis** Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:00 am

Got my first delivery of oil. $5 a gallon. For 120 gallons, almost $600. We can swing it thank goodness but at these prices, a lot of people will be in arrears.

by **GreyBeard** Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:05 am

dkodgis wrote:Got my first delivery of oil. $5 a gallon. For 120 gallons, almost $600. We can swing it thank goodness but at these prices, a lot of people will be in arrears.

Yesterday I was checking C.O.D. prices and it was $3.60 a gallon in the morning. I got distracted, and went back later in the day, and the price went up to $3.92. Quite a jump within a couple of hours. I fear that as the temperature falls, prices will rise. One of the reasons why I am not so excited about getting an extended period of freezing cold weather while others on the board craving it. The older I get, the less tolerant I am of extremes in either direction.

I better get my order in now because if Frank's prdediction of a record breaking -EPO leading to significant cold comes true, oil prices are only going to be heading up even further.

by **SENJsnowman** Thu Dec 15, 2022 4:51 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Mark my words this will happen and it will be BIG. We are supposed to see my parents for xmas this year and leaving the 24th to go. Last year we all had COVID so could not get together, I hope that this can hit b4 the 24th and roads be good enough for travel on the 24th cuz I will have one sad child again this year if not. I am rooting for a big storm of course but lets keep it on 22nd/23rd time frame, what are the chances it happens on 24th? Yes I know way to far out to know but if you were to guess scott heehaw etc?

jman me and you both. Actually, I was wondering earlier today how many others are in this same cross hairs. I'm supposed to depart early Saturday the 24th for Florida. Based on the map sroc posted above and his goose-bump inducing comment 'the slow crawl up the coast', I'd probably literally not be able to go if this 12z GFS played out verbatim. But don't worry, that's not gonna happen. Instead the storm's timeline will slow down by a day and give me just enough time to sneak out of here and go see my family for the holidays right before Mr. Zilla gets to town. Yaaaay! Sad

by **sroc4** Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:50 pm

Very interesting video. Mugs you ever hear of these Milankovitch cycles?

by **Quietace** Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:10 am

It looks like I need to awaken from my board hibernation for the next month. Let's see what happens.

by **crippo84** Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:46 am

Dolphins at Bills could be a fun game to watch tomorrow night if they don't move it - lake effect snow warning for 1-2 feet of snow with the meat of it potentially right at kickoff.

by **amugs** Fri Dec 16, 2022 4:42 pm

sroc4 wrote:Very interesting video. Mugs you ever hear of these Milankovitch cycles?

Yes and the Osgard Dansgard events as well. 2030's early 2040's these may kick in. If so wow!!! Cold will be even more abundant.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:15 pm

Only 4.8 inches of snow so far this season and nothing but misery on the horizon. It goes against my DNA but I’m going to try to go cold turkey regarding snow. Another super GLC lined up before Christmas Eve is the final blow. I still haven’t recovered from the trauma of the 2020 Christmas Eve special that turned 10 inches of the white stuff still on the ground on the 24th into bare ground by Christmas morning. I can’t go through this again so soon.

The line from Marlon Brando in Apocalypse Now certainly applies here “The horror, the horror”

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