Re: Banter Thread 8.0

[billg315]

Let the torch begin. After several days of true winter temps, currently 45* and Sunny with even warmer temps lurking this weekend/next week. Ugh. Lol.

[amugs]

The Northern Hemisphere #polarvortex currently has near record low temperatures, but the #GFS at least is showing signs of a large wave-1 event in the coming weeks, accompanied by up to a 30 m/s slowdown and 10-20K warmup. No #SSW predicted yet but something to keep an eye on. pic.twitter.com/Ztp1RiyUce

— Dr. Amy H Butler (@DrAHButler) December 27, 2022

[amugs]

Year to Date temperatures. Literally Normal for vast majority of the US

[jmanley32]

I am putting bets out that at least the coast sees almost no measurable snow this year (maybe we see one small event if we are lucky), it happened 2019-2020. I had 5 inches of snow for the year.  GFS verbatim has nothing through 13th, that gives us roughly 6 weeks after of potentially cold times before starts to warm up for spring (yes I know March can be snowy but personally atleast for the second half I hope not).

[sroc4]

I am putting bets out that at least the coast sees almost no measurable snow this year (maybe we see one small event if we are lucky), it happened 2019-2020. I had 5 inches of snow for the year.  GFS verbatim has nothing through 13th, that gives us roughly 6 weeks after of potentially cold times before starts to warm up for spring (yes I know March can be snowy but personally atleast for the second half I hope not).

What’s your bet Jon? I’ll bet you you have over 25” of snow when all is said and done this season. I’ll bet you a snow angel in your bathing suit. Has to be a picture or video in the snow as soon as you cross the 25” threshold.

[amugs]

I'm with you SROC!!!

[jmanley32]

I am putting bets out that at least the coast sees almost no measurable snow this year (maybe we see one small event if we are lucky), it happened 2019-2020. I had 5 inches of snow for the year.  GFS verbatim has nothing through 13th, that gives us roughly 6 weeks after of potentially cold times before starts to warm up for spring (yes I know March can be snowy but personally atleast for the second half I hope not).

What’s your bet Jon?  I’ll bet you you have over 25” of snow when all is said and done this season. I’ll bet you a snow angel in your bathing suit. Has to be a picture or video in the snow as soon as you cross the 25” threshold.

NVM no bet lol, If I see 25 inches that would be good but I'd prefer it to be in Jan or Feb., March I start looking towards sourcing for my ebay business and the sooner it warms up the more estate and garage sales there will be. Did really well this year BTW, its a great side hustle if you know what you are doing, and this year was not chump change, it was a low salary but on top my full time job and wife's we had a good year, went all out for xmas lol. Still though on the snow side 25 is LOW, compared to the past, and I hope we get at least one 6-12, I honestly cannot handle the shoveling of a godzilla anymore, I do want it of course but my body says no.

[docstox12]

I'm with you SROC!!!

Snow time up here extends to mid April and I have over 8  in the books ATM.
Winter of 1964-1965 did not start cranking up until the middle of January.Christmas that year was in the 50's.
Tough start for all of us here but patterns ,even though well set, can change.

[heehaw453]

I am putting bets out that at least the coast sees almost no measurable snow this year (maybe we see one small event if we are lucky), it happened 2019-2020. I had 5 inches of snow for the year.  GFS verbatim has nothing through 13th, that gives us roughly 6 weeks after of potentially cold times before starts to warm up for spring (yes I know March can be snowy but personally atleast for the second half I hope not).

With regard to CPK I'm guessing ~20" would be the most you can hope for this year.  Nothing more than based on past scenarios where no measurable snowfall has fallen before January.  This season falls into that category yet again. One can remember BOS having < 1" at start of January in 2015 and wound up with 100"+ as they were on the right side of the baroclinic zone.

[billg315]

I'm going to take a firm "pass" on any pics of Jman spread "angel" in his bathing suit, snow or not. (no offense Jman. lol)

[jmanley32]

I'm going to take a firm "pass" on any pics of Jman spread "angel" in his bathing suit, snow or not. (no offense Jman. lol)

I take a hard pass on looking at myself doing that lmao, none taken.

[jmanley32]

I am putting bets out that at least the coast sees almost no measurable snow this year (maybe we see one small event if we are lucky), it happened 2019-2020. I had 5 inches of snow for the year.  GFS verbatim has nothing through 13th, that gives us roughly 6 weeks after of potentially cold times before starts to warm up for spring (yes I know March can be snowy but personally atleast for the second half I hope not).

With regard to CPK I'm guessing ~20" would be the most you can hope for this year.  Nothing more than based on past scenarios where no measurable snowfall has fallen before January.  This season falls into that category yet again. One can remember BOS having < 1" at start of January in 2015 and wound up with 100"+ as they were on the right side of the baroclinic zone.

I think we are on the same page of course my idea is based on only the similarities like you said but your expertise on forecasting is far beyond me. I have got much more important things to worry about this year, stressing about snow just isn't in the cards, alot of good things going on (and some bad sadly). Everyone is healthy though and my daughter over the flu.

[weatherwatchermom]

Wishing everyone a Happy and Healthy New Year...WITH LOTS OF SNOW IN OUR FUTURE!

[Grselig]

Drove up from FL visit today and yesterday Fog and rain made tough driving. Not classic winter weather.

Happy New Year. Hope it is fun, happy and safe and snowy 2023 for all of us!

[nutleyblizzard]

Happy New Years everyone! Here’s hoping snow is on the horizon!

[frank 638]

Happy new year everyone I hope 2023 brings happiness and good health and snow

[Frank_Wx]

Here’s to a prosperous and peaceful New Year! Cheers!!!

[heehaw453]

Happy New Year!

[sroc4]

Happy New year to all the regulars and to all the folks who hang in the shadows of the board.  If you’ve been struggling, here’s to a new beginning. If you’ve been killing it, here’s to continued success.

Salute

[Dunnzoo]

Wishing everyone a happy and healthy New Year!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

If I wanted Seattle weather I would just move there. December and early January are really getting depressing in this area for winter weather. December used to be my favorite winter month, not so the last several years.

Global warming sucks.

[amugs]

GW?? Not so fast by Dr. Roy Spencer from UAH

[docstox12]

If I wanted Seattle weather I would just move there. December and early January are really getting depressing in this area for winter weather. December used to be my favorite winter month, not so the last several years.

Global warming sucks.

I agree 100% CP.December is the best winter month, not only for the Christmas Holiday, but the days get shorter and snow on the ground lasts longer.I already saw in late November this year we had trouble as snowstorm after snowstorm hit the Central and North Central areas.All I saw was pink and red on the NWS CONUS maps.
When we get a great winter for us, we start getting snow and cold in late November that lasts to April except for obligatory horrible "January thaw".Think '95-'96 my friend.

[sroc4]

Beyond the 15th, I think models are completely lost. There’s going to be an arctic blast that hits us once the troposphere responds to the warming taking place in the Stratosphere around mid-month. This warming coincides with activity in the cold phases of the MJO. So, everyone will have to be patient. I think our pattern change will come. But not before the 20th or 25th of January.

Thats crazy, We cannot deny that something has changed the way winters are whether is be global warming, decade long cycles of warming just cannot be denied. I remember as a kid bundling up in November and seeing first flurries around thanksgiving and usually having a snowy Dec, Jan and Feb before it slowly warmed up though we did get snow in March and April (rarely april).  Not trying to be a downer but personally I am sucking it up for what it is and looks to be our new climate, CP you may need to move to Buffalo, or near if your gonna stay sane : )

So now our abbreviation is F instead of DJF? Does that mean F-this lol

No one denies that the climate changes Jon.  It has been changing for Hundreds of millions to billions of years.  Even at its peek, in the modern era, the avg global temp has been much warmer than it is now.  It has been significantly warmer at least 4 times in the only documented last 400,000 yrs or so.  Previous history notes areas that are now warm used to be under mile high ice sheets.  Areas that are cold now have fossils of tropical plants and animal life indicating it used to be much warmer.  A tiny little region like the north east, on the scale of the globe, really is a IMBY type of size when it comes to global patterns and how they shift over time so experiencing a change over the past decade or so and trying to draw any conclusions about the earths climate as a whole based on a human lifetime is utter nonsense.  The timeline of a human life is not even a drop in the pacific ocean.  Again no one denies anything regarding the climate changing.  Heck I don't even think many deny that humans are a part of that equation, myself included, but man with the narrative in the political landscape touting man made, man made(no exception), over and over and over to drive policies for a specific political agenda, it becomes too easy to simply knee jerk and use that as the scapegoat for something that has literally been going on for billions of years and is way more complex then the politicians make it out to be.  Going forward feel free to post your banter in banter.

Exceptionally well said

Except that we are entering into the first ever human- caused geological Era- Anthropocene.  Where we are seeing mass animal extinction and climate shift unlike any other time we've seen because of human behavior and decision-making. When considering the history of the world, how long have we been burning fossil fuels?  No other age has had to deal with the amount of extreme change do to the selfishness of human need and desire. So it's really hard to compare what we've seen for millions/billions of years in regard to natural changes, versus the changes we've specifically brought on.  Our planet, each sphere, would be in a much healthier state had it not been for what we as humans have done.

I know belongs in banter, but doing this on my phone, didn't make things easy to quote and respond. Feel free to move it if needed.

In this situation Irish I think its imperative to compare.  First off show me any data that shows mass extinction is definitively caused by our current  rise in global temperature changes.  This simply just isnt true.  If it is show me the proof.  Now Do not confuse these words with the idea that there arent many species of plant and animal going extinct for a variety of reason.  There are.  And maybe its at an accelerated rate than 100yrs ago.  But a rise in global temperature by a degree or two is not the cause.  Human overpopulation, deforestation, human pollution in rivers lakes and oceans, and humans building infrastructures like 8 lane highways cutting off migration and habitats for various creatures etc. are absolutely a major cause to this.  But look up articles regarding the fossil records.  You will find over and over again when the planet was warm it coincided with an explosion of life.  Despite an overall net increase in life there were still species going extinct.  Darwins survival of the fittest has been mother natures way to balance her eco systems throughout time.  Its the cold times that are WAYYY more dangerous to mass extinction than warm periods.  This too is proven in the fossil records.  Anything prior to the modern day ie: later than 1900 and quite honestly its more like beyond the 1950's regarding just how many species are coming and going, well there just is no way to know if what we see today was how it was 200, 400, 1000 years ago as the climate in various locations shifted.  There simply is no way to know because there wasnt enough people in general, but also not enough out there looking and documenting. There were some but it was fractions upon fractions of a sample size when compared to the big picture.  

Noew lets discuss the current temps.  Here is  graph documenting the coorolation between CO2 levels and global temps.  As you can seee it ends in 2007.  Notice how for hundreds of thousands of years there seems to be a direct relatiuon ship with CO2 increasing so does global temps.  As they drop so do temps.  However look at just how high the CO2 level is as of 2007.  Higher than it has ever been in the last 420K yrs ago by a long shot; yet global temps are not going up with the same direct relation ship they appear to have done in the past.  Why? What this tells me is that while there is 100% a relationship between increased levels of CO2 and global temps, the current increased temps relative to what we think is avg is more likely a natural cycle that appears to happen every 100,000 yrs or so, except this cycle mans industrial revolution has massively elevated the CO2 levels in the atmosphere on top of the natural cycles; where as in the past there were more natural causes for the increases alone.  



Here is the image Mugs posted the other day showing the temps zoomed in on the temps since 1979.  Yup you can see that since 1979, and quite honestly since 1900 global temps have been steadily increasing, but you can clearly see that after 2007 while the CO2 levels are even higher than they were on the graph above, the global temps have actually paused over the past 1-2 decades on average.  Again if this was simply 100% due to human fossil fuel consumption the temps should be running away with the same amplitude the CO2 levels are.  But this clearly is not the case.  



Id argue that while mans addition of CO2 has a hand in the game the sun spot cycle and correlating CME and solar flaring over the past 120yrs is also a major player in the recent temp imncreses.  Weall know the sun comes up and the temps increase.  We all know why its cooler in the shade than it is in the direct sun.  Thats because this is the MAIN mechanism for the warming of our planet day to day.  And it stands to reason that during times where there is more solar flares and CME's that there will be an increased addition of energy into our planets system as these ejections of massive amounts of charges particles from the sun are flung in our direction; esp over decades of time.  The image below shows the sunspot cycles max and mins, over the past 425yrs.  Yopu can plainly see that following two major solar minimums(Maunder and Dalton minimums), ie less solar flaring and CME's,  it was followed up with an extended period of increasing sunspot maximums over many decades starting when??? right after the turn of the 1900's.  You can see that the sunspot cycles have increased in amplitude until only recently around 2000 the amplitude seems to be trending down.  Coincidence that earths global temps have also increased since the early 1900's and perhaps are in a pause period since 2000 as seen by mugsys graph right above?  Maybe.  But the real point here is that this information cant be ignored.  Well it can but only if there is an underlying agenda to lead a mass of people in a specific direction such that these elites stand to make ungodly amounts of money and maintain power and control of how it all goes.  If you were an entity trying to maintain control and your platform has been man made CO2 how would the masses react if they found out that all this time what they were being told was not the whole truth.  How easy is it to push an agenda of carbon zero if man made CO2 isnt the real root cause to this thing?  Do you see what Im saying?  What Im saying is that man is contributing to global warming.  Man needs to do better in finding alternative clean solns, but it IS NOT the global crisis that the people controlling the narrative want you to believe.  Pushing this current narrative only greatly enhances the divide between the elites with all the power and money, and the rest of us.  If we the masses abandon the idea that Man made CO2 is the only problem the people in change lose all their power because we will demand alternative solns.  We cant keep destroying our economy just to achieve zero emissions when even if we could achieve zero tomorrow its only a tiny tiny fraction of the overall global contribution to CO2.    

[docstox12]

Here is some data to show the USA is making progress on cutting CO2 emissions.Unfortunately, China and India are not included.They burn a lot of coal so I am sure they contribute a lot of CO 2.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/carbon-co2-emissions

We have closed many coal plants and are using natural gas more which is cleaner.Most interesting are the recent developments in fusion power which would provide power with no radiation dangers.The alternative source idea is good but IMO, I find acres of solar panels in the country up here ugly and a blight on the landscape.Same with wind turbines.Not to mention the millions of birds killed by them.Funny, not a peep from the PETA people on that.Thirty years ago, I briefly, and I mean BRIEFLY, a PETA women who ripped me a new one when I said I practiced catch and release fishing with lures.She said "no, you maim and release them",LOL.Wind turbines killed many bald eagles last year, but PETA?.....crickets,LOL.

[GreyBeard]

Recent advances in fusion, while promising, I fear are far down the road. While not very popular, I think we will eventually see more nuclear power being harnassed in the future. Interesting article here:

https://medium.com/predict/youll-be-shocked-to-know-what-the-most-eco-friendly-energy-is-a3f6db1dd39f

Admittedly, backers of wind, solar and hydro would be able to find justification for continued development in those fields.

With the push toward phasing out internal combustion engines in the not too distant future, it will be interesting to see which direction the powers that be will embrace. It certainly gives the average joe's like you and I a lot to ponder.

[sroc4]

Recent advances in fusion, while promising, I fear are far down the road. While not very popular, I think we will eventually see more nuclear power being harnassed in the future. Interesting article here:

https://medium.com/predict/youll-be-shocked-to-know-what-the-most-eco-friendly-energy-is-a3f6db1dd39f

Admittedly, backers of wind, solar and hydro would be able to find justification for continued development in those fields.

With the push toward phasing out internal combustion engines in the not too distant future, it will be interesting to see which direction the powers that be will embrace. It certainly gives the average joe's like you and I a lot to ponder.

Just to add to the things to ponder check this out.  THIS IMHO is going to change humanity as we know it.  Up until this fall no one has been able to produce more energy then they put in.  This was the first hurdle.  Once we can harness the energy generated from fusion and put it right back into the system; then get it out and stored for the grid our energy issues will be resolved.  Its not a simple answer, but one that will come.  

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-energy

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