March Obs & Discussions
+16
brownie
Radz
dkodgis
Math23x7
weatherwatchermom
phil155
kalleg
1190ftalt
billg315
jmanley32
CPcantmeasuresnow
aiannone
Frank_Wx
amugs
docstox12
heehaw453
20 posters
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March Obs & Discussions
Futility to be denied or will it be many stations least amount of snow for a season?
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
IMO March has a higher than normal probability of reaching mean snowfall for your area. March has very wide distributions of snowfall and the mean is not a good indicator of snowfall where the median is better. This March I'd put the mean snowfall as realistic. In terms of March 2018 type of snowfall I highly doubt we get anywhere near that. My ceiling would be 1/3-1/2 of that output which IMBY is pretty darned good.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
40 degrees, partly cloudy, calm winds.
1 to 3 of slop slated for up here Friday.
1 to 3 of slop slated for up here Friday.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
Ides of March storm?
Pattern showing a BN March temps wise inbound. Let's see how this plays out.
Pattern showing a BN March temps wise inbound. Let's see how this plays out.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
![March Obs & Discussions StormTotalSnowWeb](https://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
Man quite the doozy of a coastal hitting our area tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning. Unfortunately the primary is MUCH stronger with this storm compared to our last one, so it floods our latitude with warm air and the colder air is confined to New England.
![March Obs & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_7](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023030212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_7.png)
![March Obs & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023030212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8.png)
![March Obs & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_7](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023030212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_7.png)
![March Obs & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023030212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8.png)
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:Man quite the doozy of a coastal hitting our area tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning. Unfortunately the primary is MUCH stronger with this storm compared to our last one, so it floods our latitude with warm air and the colder air is confined to New England.
Looks like most of NY state does pretty well with the cold air too, at least as good as New England.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Man quite the doozy of a coastal hitting our area tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning. Unfortunately the primary is MUCH stronger with this storm compared to our last one, so it floods our latitude with warm air and the colder air is confined to New England.
Looks like most of NY state does pretty well with the cold air too, at least as good as New England.
At least on the GFS. Here is the NAM
![March Obs & Discussions Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_37](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2023030218/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_37.png)
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
EURO snowfall
![March Obs & Discussions EURO](https://i.postimg.cc/YS9gbJNJ/EURO.png)
NAM snowfall
![March Obs & Discussions NAM](https://i.postimg.cc/yd3Rzcbj/NAM.png)
GFS snowfall
![March Obs & Discussions Gfs](https://i.postimg.cc/FKBSqDD1/gfs.png)
![March Obs & Discussions EURO](https://i.postimg.cc/YS9gbJNJ/EURO.png)
NAM snowfall
![March Obs & Discussions NAM](https://i.postimg.cc/yd3Rzcbj/NAM.png)
GFS snowfall
![March Obs & Discussions Gfs](https://i.postimg.cc/FKBSqDD1/gfs.png)
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
Another one bites the dust yeah! Blah
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
This storm just following the pattern of much of the winter. Really Monday's was the only outlier -- and barely at that. But Frank has given us some hope in the new Long Range thread. Fingers crossed (except from CP who has sworn-off anything winter related for the rest of the year
)
![Laughing](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_lol.gif)
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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docstox12 and CPcantmeasuresnow like this post
Re: March Obs & Discussions
This was always a NY state and New England storm, other than the SE and coastal sections of both places.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
It's the h7 that screws your area CP, albeit surface is marginal too. If upstairs that was good you'd be looking at 4"+. And it's not good because the blocking and 50/50 are not quite enough to put the kibosh on the ULL as it lifts north.
But that's the tale of this winter. it finds a way to screw everyone in these parts.
But that's the tale of this winter. it finds a way to screw everyone in these parts.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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docstox12 and CPcantmeasuresnow like this post
Re: March Obs & Discussions
Some concern for isolated flooding this evening, especially areas N&W who may still have some snow on the ground. The NAM is depicting close to 2" of rainfall.
![March Obs & Discussions Namconus_apcpn_neus_11](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2023030312/namconus_apcpn_neus_11.png)
![March Obs & Discussions Namconus_apcpn_neus_11](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2023030312/namconus_apcpn_neus_11.png)
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
Oh what could’ve been. Another 50 miles south and we in the northern suburbs would’ve been looking at a bigger snow than we got Tuesday.
Wintercoldandsnowisamyth
Wintercoldandsnowisamyth
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
Here he comes
![March Obs & Discussions Inxr1Kphla_h](https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif)
![March Obs & Discussions Inxr1Kphla_h](https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif)
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kalleg likes this post
Re: March Obs & Discussions
It'll start as snow for some as the mid-levels are cold enough as it is for me now. Surface way too warm for accumulations and then the h7 will warm rapidly and turn things over to rain/sleet rather quickly. A little less powerful and non closed ULL and it'd been a different story as the height field would have made this slide much further south and we'd be talking several inches of snow. But alas we know this winter.
![March Obs & Discussions Ull21](https://i.servimg.com/u/f69/19/86/88/64/ull21.png)
![March Obs & Discussions Ull21](https://i.servimg.com/u/f69/19/86/88/64/ull21.png)
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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sroc4 and kalleg like this post
Re: March Obs & Discussions
Windy and snowing pretty good, 35 degree’s
1190ftalt- Pro Enthusiast
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Location : Stillwater, NJ
Re: March Obs & Discussions
Windy and snowing pretty good, 35 degree’s
1190ftalt- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
Rain in New Hope, 36*
kalleg- Posts : 148
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Location : New Hope, PA
Re: March Obs & Discussions
Rain with a rare occasional ping on the window here in edison
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
Here in eastern CT (uncasville, CT), winds a good 40 mph and snowing heavily, looks like a blizzard out, glad I came out here!! All colder surfaces and cars coated.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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SENJsnowman likes this post
Re: March Obs & Discussions
Snowing and 33. Expecting the eventual change to rain so not excited for this.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: March Obs & Discussions
Heavy Rain
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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