March Obs & Discussions

Futility to be denied or will it be many stations least amount of snow for a season?

IMO March has a higher than normal probability of reaching mean snowfall for your area.  March has very wide distributions of snowfall and the mean is not a good indicator of snowfall where the median is better.  This March I'd put the mean snowfall as realistic.  In terms of March 2018 type of snowfall I highly doubt we get anywhere near that.  My ceiling would be 1/3-1/2 of that output which IMBY is pretty darned good.

40 degrees, partly cloudy, calm winds.
1 to 3 of slop slated for up here Friday.

Ides of March storm?
Pattern showing a BN March temps wise inbound. Let's see how this plays out.

Man quite the doozy of a coastal hitting our area tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning. Unfortunately the primary is MUCH stronger with this storm compared to our last one, so it floods our latitude with warm air and the colder air is confined to New England.

12z HRRR is quite cold

Frank_Wx wrote:Man quite the doozy of a coastal hitting our area tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning. Unfortunately the primary is MUCH stronger with this storm compared to our last one, so it floods our latitude with warm air and the colder air is confined to New England.

Looks like most of NY state does pretty well with the cold air too, at least as good as New England.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Man quite the doozy of a coastal hitting our area tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning. Unfortunately the primary is MUCH stronger with this storm compared to our last one, so it floods our latitude with warm air and the colder air is confined to New England.

Looks like most of NY state does pretty well with the cold air too, at least as good as New England.

At least on the GFS. Here is the NAM

EURO snowfall



NAM snowfall



GFS snowfall

Another one bites the dust yeah! Blah

This storm just following the pattern of much of the winter. Really Monday's was the only outlier -- and barely at that. But Frank has given us some hope in the new Long Range thread. Fingers crossed (except from CP who has sworn-off anything winter related for the rest of the year )

This was always a NY state and New England storm, other than the SE and coastal sections of both places.

It's the h7 that screws your area CP, albeit surface is marginal too.  If upstairs that was good you'd be looking at 4"+. And it's not good because the blocking and 50/50 are not quite enough to put the kibosh on the ULL as it lifts north.

But that's the tale of this winter.  it finds a way to screw everyone in these parts.

Some concern for isolated flooding this evening, especially areas N&W who may still have some snow on the ground. The NAM is depicting close to 2" of rainfall.

Oh what could’ve been. Another 50 miles south and we in the northern suburbs would’ve been looking at a bigger snow than we got Tuesday.

Wintercoldandsnowisamyth

Here he comes

It'll start as snow for some as the mid-levels are cold enough as it is for me now.  Surface way too warm for accumulations and then the h7 will warm rapidly and turn things over to rain/sleet rather quickly. A little less powerful and non closed ULL and it'd been a different story as the height field would have made this slide much further south and we'd be talking several inches of snow. But alas we know this winter.

Windy and snowing pretty good, 35 degree’s

Windy and snowing pretty good, 35 degree’s

Rain in New Hope, 36*

Rain with a rare occasional ping on the window here in edison

Here in eastern CT (uncasville, CT), winds a good 40 mph and snowing heavily, looks like a blizzard out, glad I came out here!! All colder surfaces and cars coated.

Snowing and 33. Expecting the eventual change to rain so not excited for this.

Heavy Rain