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March Obs & Discussions

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Radz
dkodgis
Math23x7
weatherwatchermom
phil155
kalleg
1190ftalt
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CPcantmeasuresnow
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:52 am

Futility to be denied or will it be many stations least amount of snow for a season?

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:00 pm

IMO March has a higher than normal probability of reaching mean snowfall for your area.  March has very wide distributions of snowfall and the mean is not a good indicator of snowfall where the median is better.  This March I'd put the mean snowfall as realistic.  In terms of March 2018 type of snowfall I highly doubt we get anywhere near that.  My ceiling would be 1/3-1/2 of that output which IMBY is pretty darned good.

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Post by docstox12 Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:08 pm

40 degrees, partly cloudy, calm winds.
1 to 3 of slop slated for up here Friday.
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 01, 2023 1:05 pm

Ides of March storm?
Pattern showing a BN March temps wise inbound. Let's see how this plays out.

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Post by amugs Wed Mar 01, 2023 7:35 pm

March Obs & Discussions StormTotalSnowWeb

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 02, 2023 1:57 pm

Man quite the doozy of a coastal hitting our area tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning. Unfortunately the primary is MUCH stronger with this storm compared to our last one, so it floods our latitude with warm air and the colder air is confined to New England.

March Obs & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_7

March Obs & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8

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Post by aiannone Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:39 pm

12z HRRR is quite cold
March Obs & Discussions Hrrr_r11

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 02, 2023 3:32 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Man quite the doozy of a coastal hitting our area tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning. Unfortunately the primary is MUCH stronger with this storm compared to our last one, so it floods our latitude with warm air and the colder air is confined to New England.

March Obs & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_7

March Obs & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8

Looks like most of NY state does pretty well with the cold air too, at least as good as New England.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 02, 2023 4:00 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Man quite the doozy of a coastal hitting our area tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning. Unfortunately the primary is MUCH stronger with this storm compared to our last one, so it floods our latitude with warm air and the colder air is confined to New England.

March Obs & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_7

March Obs & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8

Looks like most of NY state does pretty well with the cold air too, at least as good as New England.

At least on the GFS. Here is the NAM

March Obs & Discussions Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_37

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 02, 2023 4:03 pm

EURO snowfall

March Obs & Discussions EURO

NAM snowfall

March Obs & Discussions NAM

GFS snowfall

March Obs & Discussions Gfs

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 02, 2023 4:14 pm

Another one bites the dust yeah! Blah
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Post by billg315 Thu Mar 02, 2023 4:30 pm

This storm just following the pattern of much of the winter. Really Monday's was the only outlier -- and barely at that. But Frank has given us some hope in the new Long Range thread. Fingers crossed (except from CP who has sworn-off anything winter related for the rest of the year Laughing)
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 02, 2023 6:27 pm

This was always a NY state and New England storm, other than the SE and coastal sections of both places.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:09 pm

It's the h7 that screws your area CP, albeit surface is marginal too.  If upstairs that was good you'd be looking at 4"+. And it's not good because the blocking and 50/50 are not quite enough to put the kibosh on the ULL as it lifts north.

But that's the tale of this winter.  it finds a way to screw everyone in these parts.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 03, 2023 9:38 am

Some concern for isolated flooding this evening, especially areas N&W who may still have some snow on the ground. The NAM is depicting close to 2" of rainfall.

March Obs & Discussions Namconus_apcpn_neus_11

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:13 am

Oh what could’ve been. Another 50 miles south and we in the northern suburbs would’ve been looking at a bigger snow than we got Tuesday.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 03, 2023 3:03 pm

Here he comes

March Obs & Discussions Inxr1Kphla_h

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Mar 03, 2023 3:59 pm

It'll start as snow for some as the mid-levels are cold enough as it is for me now.  Surface way too warm for accumulations and then the h7 will warm rapidly and turn things over to rain/sleet rather quickly. A little less powerful and non closed ULL and it'd been a different story as the height field would have made this slide much further south and we'd be talking several inches of snow. But alas we know this winter.

March Obs & Discussions Ull21

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Post by 1190ftalt Fri Mar 03, 2023 5:18 pm

Windy and snowing pretty good, 35 degree’s
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Post by 1190ftalt Fri Mar 03, 2023 5:18 pm

Windy and snowing pretty good, 35 degree’s
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Post by kalleg Fri Mar 03, 2023 5:28 pm

Rain in New Hope, 36*

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Post by phil155 Fri Mar 03, 2023 6:40 pm

Rain with a rare occasional ping on the window here in edison

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:01 pm

Here in eastern CT (uncasville, CT), winds a good 40 mph and snowing heavily, looks like a blizzard out, glad I came out here!! All colder surfaces and cars coated.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Mar 04, 2023 12:07 am

Snowing and 33. Expecting the eventual change to rain so not excited for this.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Mar 04, 2023 2:05 am

Heavy Rain
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