Re: Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall

by **heehaw453** Thu Mar 09, 2023 4:34 pm

essexcountypete wrote:WWA for my area has issued. I was not expecting the 3-6" prediction.

ISSUED: 4:12 PM MAR. 9, 2023 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 3 to 6 inches
with locally higher amounts possible well north and west of NYC.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

If that coastal wraps up faster or just stalls a bit longer you may be closer to the 6". Very dynamic setup and won't take much.

by **heehaw453** Thu Mar 09, 2023 5:08 pm

The ULL latitude is going to make the WAA stuff tough IMO. The magic either happens or it doesn't as the storm deepens off the coast. If that doesn't happen this busts hard on the southern edge of the snow zones or overperforms due to stalling/deeper development. High bust either way.

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 Gfs175

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 Gfs234

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:59 pm

I got a WWA for 3-6, which I find hard to believe, I thought 3-6 was a WSW maybe I am wrong. Still if that happened even 3 I would be happy with this one, looks like snow maps are all over the place.

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 09, 2023 9:02 pm

Just saw 18z 3km NAM, mainly rain even well inland and no way NYC or even 40 miles inland sees more than a inch or two, where NWS is getting 3-6 for my area I got no clue.

by **heehaw453** Thu Mar 09, 2023 9:44 pm

The ULL on the NAM keeps coming in at a higher latitude making it more likely the initial WAA snows are going to bust. If that trend doesn't stop then will rely solely on the coastal and that's roll dice time.

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 Ull22

by **frank 638** Thu Mar 09, 2023 10:05 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Just saw 18z 3km NAM, mainly rain even well inland and no way NYC or even 40 miles inland sees more than a inch or two, where NWS is getting 3-6 for my area I got no clue.

To be honest with you I threw in the towel a long time ago we’re lucky to get an inch of snow I am ready for spring I am ready for baseball.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:43 am

I’m going to make my 1st call snow map the final call as well. Even though it’s looking pretty grim along the immediate coast, a coating to 1” is still possible thanks to the backend snows most models are showing as the secondary low forms off the coast. I think Bill mentioned it, but looks like a norlun like feature.

by **heehaw453** Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:53 am

Unfortunately I see no differences in the positioning of this ULL on most recent 06Z NAM. Therefore IMO front end snows will be disappointing for many. Elongated troughs like norluns from a 700mb off coast low are complete wildcards. But if it does occur will probably be very early tomorrow.

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 Nam61

by **heehaw453** Fri Mar 10, 2023 8:49 am

NWS has this right now IMO. Higher elevations of NEPA is where 6+ can occur. I like 3-5" NW NJ and LHV. The rest of the areas probably not too much maybe some consolation backend snows from the coastal. The ULL being too far north put the kabash on this one.

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 Nws14

by **sroc4** Fri Mar 10, 2023 9:01 am

heehaw453 wrote:NWS has this right now IMO. Higher elevations of NEPA is where 6+ can occur. I like 3-5" NW NJ and LHV. The rest of the areas probably not too much maybe some consolation backend snows from the coastal. The ULL being too far north put the kabash on this one.

ULL position and lack of any recognizable CAD signature means low levels coming in off the water. No push back from a cold air source.

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 1678514400-psASvA9beP8

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 1678514400-psASvA9beP8

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 10, 2023 9:34 am

Hos is it NWS has me for 3-5 for this? I don't see from what guys are saying how we even get 3. Am I just far enough inland?

by **heehaw453** Fri Mar 10, 2023 9:38 am

here's a projection of the 925s at 3 ET.

I don't like seeing 925s push into MHV. Put that about 75-100 miles south and think many of us would have done ok.

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 92512

by **heehaw453** Fri Mar 10, 2023 9:39 am

jmanley32 wrote:Hos is it NWS has me for 3-5 for this? I don't see from what guys are saying how we even get 3. Am I just far enough inland?

Don't think your area will get 3-5 out of this. 1-3" I'd go with.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 10, 2023 9:48 am

heehaw453 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Hos is it NWS has me for 3-5 for this? I don't see from what guys are saying how we even get 3. Am I just far enough inland?
Don't think your area will get 3-5 out of this. 1-3" I'd go with.

Yeah NWS is wrong IMO, it will bust low. But they haven't wavered.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 10, 2023 11:57 am

12z 3km NAM has 0 snow all rain for NYC parts of eastern NJ and into lower Westchester, I think its a wrap that we wont see anything. Rain even as far noth into far northern areas at the start.

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Mar 10, 2023 12:53 pm

So, I listened to Joe Cioffi last night, and he was in touch with Bill Goodman, a meteorologist at the NWS Upton. The reason they put the advisory are for those questionable areas is they are cya with the norlun trough and that they also used a BUFKIT program which suggests that the atmosphere will be colder than projected by the models. Here is a link to the BUFKIT:
https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/tools/BUFKIT/

by **heehaw453** Fri Mar 10, 2023 1:10 pm

We'll see. I think most folks have their shot tomorrow early AM if the coastal works out. Other than that this 925mb L is just too far north outside of NEPA, NW NJ and maybe LHV IMO for any decent front end stuff. And its because the ULL is too far north. This changed by at least 100 miles in the last 48 hours.

925s early evening.

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 92513

by **heehaw453** Fri Mar 10, 2023 2:52 pm

you can see where the cold press is on the surface which lines up with the 925s. As the ULL pushes SE so will the 925. I 'think your best snow with this is NEPA. Particularly elevations > 1000'

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 92514

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 Surfac32

by DAYBLAZER Fri Mar 10, 2023 2:57 pm

Question for you Heehaw (or anyone else following this one who wants to chime in).

I'm actually at my family's cabin up in Western Ulster county (Big Indian/Oliverea area), NY right now. Have pretty limited internet access. I did see the WWA up here is calling for 4-8 inches. Is that still in the cards for this area? Trying to figure out what I'm waking up to tomorrow AM.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 10, 2023 3:01 pm

DAYBLAZER wrote:Question for you Heehaw (or anyone else following this one who wants to chime in).

I'm actually at my family's cabin up in Western Ulster county (Big Indian/Oliverea area), NY right now. Have pretty limited internet access. I did see the WWA up here is calling for 4-8 inches. Is that still in the cards for this area? Trying to figure out what I'm waking up to tomorrow AM.

Yes that is still in the cards.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 10, 2023 3:02 pm

Here is EURO snow map

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 Capture

Here is the NAM

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 Nam

by CNWestMilford Fri Mar 10, 2023 3:14 pm

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 F3420010

Colder and more thumping.

by **MattyICE** Fri Mar 10, 2023 3:15 pm

Slight improvement at 18z. But I do think we’re talking mostly white rain south of 80

by CNWestMilford Fri Mar 10, 2023 3:18 pm

by **heehaw453** Fri Mar 10, 2023 3:32 pm

NAM 3k is showing the coastal forcing. After 6 AM tomorrow is when south of rt 80 gets some accumulations maybe. NAM has been consistently showing that. Im not a believer of 6" with this system unless you're elevation is > 1200' ASL. I like 3-5 for most areas in the snow zone LHV, NEPA, and NW NJ. Outside of that will depend on coastal and you can hope for a c-2"

Friday-Saturday Light Snowfall - Page 2 Namfor10

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Mar 10, 2023 3:33 pm

CNWestMilford wrote:

A decent amount of precip, but most of it will be rain for NENJ, figure about an inch or so. 45* out now

by **1190ftalt** Fri Mar 10, 2023 3:43 pm

Lightly snowing for the past hour, 37 degrees not sticking to anything.

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