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2023 Atlantic Tropics season

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Frank_Wx
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Aug 25, 2023 5:18 pm

sroc4 wrote:NHC increasing odds of development for our Yucatan system.  Worried for my buddy in Fort Meyers.  Ive already bee in contact with him and he def has PTSD.  Already making preparations to get the heck out of there.  Rightfully so even if its a weak system.  I dont blame him.

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 3 Two_atl_7d0
2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 3 Two_atl_7d1

Oh boy .will keep your friend in my thoughts...let's hope that does not happen🤞🤞

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Aug 26, 2023 9:04 am

sroc4 wrote:NHC increasing odds of development for our Yucatan system.  Worried for my buddy in Fort Meyers.  Ive already bee in contact with him and he def has PTSD.  Already making preparations to get the heck out of there.  Rightfully so even if its a weak system.  I dont blame him.

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 3 Two_atl_7d0
2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 3 Two_atl_7d1


My brother is in Cape Coral and still has a few repairs to make from the last time around. This looks to be a tad north of them, hoping it's just a rainstorm by then!

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Post by missmorris Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:37 pm

My daughter is on a cruise right now! They were supposed to be in Bermuda today and tomorrow. Instead, they're in Miami today. Everyone has to get off the ship to go through customs - even those planning on just staying on the ship. Not as much fun as a planned beach day with toddlers, but better safe than sorry.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:48 pm

Welcome Idalia to the playing field. Do not be surprised to see this cone trend east a tad and don’t be surprised to see a stronger soln to the trend. Only thing that my dampen things is dry air on the western flank as it enters the GOM

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:36 pm

sroc4 wrote:Welcome Idalia to the playing field. Do not be surprised to see this cone trend east a tad and don’t be surprised to see a stronger soln to the trend. Only thing that my dampen things is dry air on the western flank as it enters the GOM

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 3 Img_6610
Models seem pretty locked in guessing no chances of any impacts, even rain up this way? "I" storm is often the bad one, hopefully for FL it isn't but hard for me to believe it won't be a major in those waters.
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Post by jtswife Sun Aug 27, 2023 7:51 pm

I followed you guys when I lived on Long Island and trusted what you had to say. Now I live in Port Charlotte Florida between tamp and fort myers. We got majorly hit with Ian last year and now I have major PTSD about this one, Please tell me something good you wise weathermen?
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Post by sroc4 Sun Aug 27, 2023 9:02 pm

jtswife wrote:I followed you guys when I lived on Long Island and trusted what you had to say. Now I live in Port Charlotte Florida between tamp and fort Myers. We got majorly hit with Ian last year and now I have major PTSD about this one, Please tell me something good you wise weathermen?

Hey jtswife.  I feel ya pain for sure.  Unfortunately I don't have great news to report this eve.  Idalia is def exploding as we speak.  And up to this eve she is def developing much faster than any of the global models have predicted.  You are going to have to watch this VERY closely.  As of now the main track is likely N of you but it is def not impossible for this track cone to shift S&E.  Notice below the current track doesn't have it reaching hurricane status until Tuesday 1am, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this a hurricane by morning or earlier with how this IR Satellite loop looks atm.    
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=10L&product=ir

At this lead time Ian was in the same position regarding track before finally shifting S&E within 24 hrs of landfall.  Even if it landfalls to the N the surge on the SE side still could be extremely dangerous in your neck of the woods if it reaches major status.  Open this link and save it to refence.  It is the surge risk.  At the top of the page click on the Category hurricane to show you what sort of surge you will see in your area for that strength of hurricane; then use your mouse to zoom in on your area.  

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-3/


2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 3 235357_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

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Post by dkodgis Sun Aug 27, 2023 9:17 pm

As Scott says, paraphrasing, this storm is about to go sideways meaning you are most likely in for a hell of a time. Generator, gas, water, food, and be safe
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Post by jtswife Sun Aug 27, 2023 9:36 pm

Thank you so much, I respect you all. We are prepared and hoping for the best!!! I will let you know how it plays out if I can.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 27, 2023 9:44 pm

Whats Cape Coral looking like, I see there is a watch there, our friends just finished repairing their property and are down there for the week I imagine they plan to leave by the weekend. They are right on the Canal. She is a cath lab nurse for a major NYC hospital forget which one and she HAS to be back. Her husbands job I think can be more remote. Should they leave?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 27, 2023 9:47 pm

dkodgis wrote:As Scott says, paraphrasing, this storm is about to go sideways meaning you are most likely in for a hell of a time. Generator, gas, water, food, and be safe
Yup all the cane models have this getting sub 955mb, maybe sub 950 which would push cat 3+. Ugg, hopefully hell does not strike twice on port charlotte, cape coral etc again.
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Post by jtswife Sun Aug 27, 2023 11:37 pm

Hopefully not, we just got roof and other work done, lost our lanai cage with Ian. Praying for the best, but my gut is telling me we will be in the cross hairs again. Thankfully our cage is a couple weeks out, but had hubby take down palm trees that could come down
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Post by Joe Snow Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:30 am

National hurricane center is now predicting that Idalia will become a major Hurricane.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.7N 84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Aug 28, 2023 6:16 am

Joe Snow wrote:National hurricane center is now predicting that Idalia will become a major Hurricane.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.7N  84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.


Yup and as stated last night, while its not quite there yet, it appears she will be a hurricane some time this morning. Recon on its way in as we speak.

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 3 085934_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 28, 2023 7:12 am

sroc4 wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:National hurricane center is now predicting that Idalia will become a major Hurricane.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.7N  84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.


Yup and as stated last night, while its not quite there yet, it appears she will be a hurricane some time this morning.  Recon on its way in as we speak.  

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 3 085934_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind
well that escalated quick. Not surprised. With that area and those waters i found it near impossible she would stay a TS and wouldnt become a major. And i could see her surpass cat 3 to much dismay for FL. Levi yesterday was saying the ceiling was quite high. Weather is only getting more extreme and i think it doesnt get better.
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Post by GreyBeard Mon Aug 28, 2023 9:31 am

I see Franklin has turned into a very powerful Cat.4 with 145 mph. winds but mercifully will not be impacting us here in the US.

Idalia, on the other hand, looks like it has Fla. in it's crosshairs. After suffering from Ian last year, the last thing you folks need is a repeat performance. Unfortunately, that is a risk you take to live there.  Have many family members in south Florida, so always keeping an eye out for them.

For whatever reason, my spidey sense has been tingling all summer that a major hurricane will occur. All that record breaking heat that has been going on all summer, I fear we still have a long way to go. Best wishes for all to ride out the remainder of the season.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Aug 28, 2023 11:08 am

That hot tub Gulf was bound to produce something.Praying for all those down there .
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Post by jtswife Mon Aug 28, 2023 11:15 am

yeah it is the risk we take living here, still not welcome especially still rebuilding from Ian.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Aug 28, 2023 11:44 am

jtswife wrote:yeah it is the risk we take living here, still not welcome especially still rebuilding from Ian.

will have you and everyone in my thoughts..stay safe..keep up posted!
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Post by jtswife Mon Aug 28, 2023 11:56 am

thank you
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Post by GreyBeard Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:10 pm

@jtswife, are you in an evacuation zone, or are you riding it out? Looks like you have a canal right in your backyard based on your picture. Stay safe and don't put yourself in harms way. I remember your posts from last year and always wondered how you made out.

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Post by amugs Mon Aug 28, 2023 2:12 pm


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Post by sroc4 Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:49 am

Its looking like the landfall is likely to end up N of you JTSWIFE; however you, as Im sure you know need to still monitor very closley as the track is fa from finalized.  

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 3 093743_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

With with the landfall to the north as of now it appears your area is still in the 4-7ft surge zone which is still very dangerous depending on exactly where you live.  So any shifts south of the current cone, AND/OR any unforeseen increases to intensity, will shift the surge impacts for the worse. 6-9'/9-12' isnt that far off.    

2023 Atlantic Tropics season - Page 3 093743_peak_surge  

The last NHC update had a min central pressure of 981mb; however there is a recon plane that just made a pass through the eve and it is now down in the low to mid 970's so it appears that strengthening is occurring.  Looking at water vapor images the WSW shear that had put the brakes on rapid intensification yesterday seem to no longer be evident so today should be interesting so see what happens to the intensification and or any wobbles to the current forecast cone east or west. I personally cont to think this will end up on the east side of the current forecast cone say between Cedar Keys and south about 25-35 miles.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Aug 29, 2023 8:09 am

Actually the actual current pressure is 979mb not low to mid 970's as I stated above. That was the estimated value from recon I was looking at

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Post by sroc4 Tue Aug 29, 2023 8:21 am

Radar finally starting to show bands warping around and developing on the west and SW side of the eye; a clear indication of strengthening.

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Post by jtswife Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:22 am

GreyBeard wrote:@jtswife, are you in an evacuation zone, or are you riding it out? Looks like you have a canal right in your backyard based on your picture. Stay safe and don't put yourself in harms way. I remember your posts from last year and always wondered how you made out.


Yes I do have a live on a canal about 200 ft wide. Last year we had a palm tree fall on our lanai cage and destroyed it, we lost some roof, windows sucked out. It was awful scary, The wind blew rain water up under our sliding glass doors so got water in the house, had to be dehumidified. Our dock was underwater for a week. So until this thing is past us I am still nervous. Ian turned after getting into the gulf and hoping this one will be true to the models.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Aug 29, 2023 10:47 am

Current radar lloop has the eye wall moving in a NNW motion. Go west!

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