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August 2023 Observations and Discussion

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amugs
sroc4
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billg315
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August 2023 Observations and Discussion Empty August 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by billg315 Tue Aug 01, 2023 2:54 pm

Welcome to August, last month of summer. Days are getting noticeably shorter, with each passing week, sun is setting a little earlier in the evening each night, and time to get those last beach days in before Fall arrives next month.
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Post by billg315 Tue Aug 01, 2023 2:56 pm

Sunday night was wonderful, had the windows open at my place for the first time in weeks. Got a little warm inside yesterday afternoon so put the AC back on, but was nice to get some fresh air at night.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Aug 01, 2023 10:40 pm

billg315 wrote:Sunday night was wonderful, had the windows open at my place for the first time in weeks. Got a little warm inside yesterday afternoon so put the AC back on, but was nice to get some fresh air at night.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Aug 01, 2023 10:43 pm

billg315 wrote:Sunday night was wonderful, had the windows open at my place for the first time in weeks. Got a little warm inside yesterday afternoon so put the AC back on, but was nice to get some fresh air at night.
It was beautiful sleeping weather last night. We don't open windows because of allergies... If flood gates were open we would have taken the boat out to sleep. Husband is fine in the water..
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Post by docstox12 Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:04 pm

Was 50 degrees early this morning.Partly cloudy, slight breeze ,low humidity.Noticing some color change on the early maples up here and acorns bombing me in the head when I go out to the mailbox.
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Post by dkodgis Fri Aug 04, 2023 9:24 pm

Heavy thunder, lightning, and bad-ass hail at 8:45 pm. Lasted about 15 mins. Electric blinked, went out, came back
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Post by docstox12 Sat Aug 05, 2023 5:50 am

Had a T Storm last night, loud thunder and torrential rain.
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Post by Radz Sat Aug 05, 2023 6:28 am

1.68” from that storm, wind gusts to 30 mph+, tons of lightning- should have been severe warned based on rainfall rate imo all in less than 1hr
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Post by rb924119 Sat Aug 05, 2023 1:29 pm

Another winter-related post to keep us cool(er) than we have been so far this month 😏 folks, the EURO seasonals came out last night, and for a model that can’t find cold air in its extended range, HOT DIGGITY they are SCRUMPTIOUS!! Lock us in from November through presumably March. I said that I really liked the idea of a fast and strong start in November and December in my earlier post, but I also said that I wasn’t sure about whether or not we could lock in through the rest of the season. I’m still not sure of that, and quite honestly, I am waiting to see how El Niño region 1.2 evolves between now and October before I will likely feel comfortable enough to actually make my stand on a forecast. But, as of now, that is the ONLY piece I am waiting for, because quite honestly, everything else, including modeling (which is worth the least, but still something), is looking pretty darn good. I’m pretty excited, gang, I won’t lie. But again, Niño region 1.2 is the indicator I will be watching very closely.

Carry on 🙂

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Post by dkodgis Sat Aug 05, 2023 1:56 pm

From your mouth to Jack Frost’s ears
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Post by sroc4 Sat Aug 05, 2023 3:54 pm

rb924119 wrote:Another winter-related post to keep us cool(er) than we have been so far this month 😏 folks, the EURO seasonals came out last night, and for a model that can’t find cold air in its extended range, HOT DIGGITY they are SCRUMPTIOUS!! Lock us in from November through presumably March. I said that I really liked the idea of a fast and strong start in November and December in my earlier post, but I also said that I wasn’t sure about whether or not we could lock in through the rest of the season. I’m still not sure of that, and quite honestly, I am waiting to see how El Niño region 1.2 evolves between now and October before I will likely feel comfortable enough to actually make my stand on a forecast. But, as of now, that is the ONLY piece I am waiting for, because quite honestly, everything else, including modeling (which is worth the least, but still something), is looking pretty darn good. I’m pretty excited, gang, I won’t lie. But again, Niño region 1.2 is the indicator I will be watching very closely.

Carry on 🙂

Saw that.  Encouraging for sure.  The Sub Aleutian Low getting stronger as we head through the three months is what I like most to be honest. Everything else down stream will fall into place if that sets up shop in that location for the season.

Dec-Jan-Feb




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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Aug 05, 2023 4:04 pm

Little subsurface cool pool at about 150m developing around 160E longitude.  See what happens there.  

And 1.2 seems to have begun to moderate a bit in August, and the center of the warmest anomalies just starting to "maybe" shift westward.  Ray I know that's what you're watching for.  FWIW Nino region 1.2 is the most shllow and can fluctuate quite dramatically and quite rapidly so grain of salt with changes for now.  Like Ray said must wait until Sept Oct and see where we sit.  

Go west young man...Go West.  We want you to grow up into Mr. Modoki by late Fall please


August 2023 Observations and Discussion Ssta_s10

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by amugs Sat Aug 05, 2023 9:58 pm

Monday.....need a bigger boat

August 2023 Observations and Discussion Sc_23911

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Post by amugs Sun Aug 06, 2023 10:40 am

Who wants this for winter??? If this happens wowza! Winter weather weenies would be very happy!!

August 2023 Observations and Discussion F21x8j10
August 2023 Observations and Discussion F21x6r10

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Post by amugs Sun Aug 06, 2023 2:20 pm

Updated for Februray - this would be a bazinga of snowstorms and cold - holy mother of snow pattern!!!!

August 2023 Observations and Discussion F2z-Dt8W8AAcmv-?format=webp&name=900x900


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Post by frank 638 Sun Aug 06, 2023 9:07 pm

Amugs I can’t wait for the fall and winter we are getting closer and closer

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Aug 06, 2023 9:58 pm

frank 638 wrote:Amugs I can’t wait for the fall and winter we are getting closer and closer
Smile Smile NORMALLY I would be right with you...but I only have 23 more days with my only child going before he goes off to school(4hours from home)....AGHHHH I am stuck in the middle...want time to stop, but want the fall and the cold..LOL. I do hope when it gets here it will be a good one!!
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Post by amugs Mon Aug 07, 2023 9:33 am

Mom I can empathize those days wh3n my oldest went off to Penn State and then Tennessee for his Masters. But they must leave the nest egg and those experiences willnalow them to adult and become ones.

Picked up 1.46" overnight!!

Look at Jan and Feb on seasonal EURO maps...Positive PNA, Negative AO and NAO!!! Please hold and come to fruition!

August 2023 Observations and Discussion Ecmwf_10
August 2023 Observations and Discussion Ecmwf_11

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Post by dkodgis Mon Aug 07, 2023 9:40 am

Mom, we must lose them go for four or five years or we’ll hold them back forever
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 07, 2023 9:44 am

The sefere weather threat today looks intense especially further south from here but don't often see moderate into central/eastern NJ. Looks like tornado threat too. A rare level of High in that area down south is pretty uncommon too.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 07, 2023 9:47 am

amugs wrote:Monday.....need a bigger boat

August 2023 Observations and Discussion Sc_23911

That's insane that 8.5 spot in NYC area is Yonkers plot, I surely hope not would be major I mean major flooding. Anything over 4 in 1 day and it gets concerning. With the severe weather threat I guess depending on how slow moving or training storms are it could happen. Anyone notice the extreme uptick in torrential rains this summer, even when no rain is forecast spotty areas get massive tropical downpours. Global warming? Do not want to debate here but it has to be something. I do not recall this amount of wet in a long time as it has been continuous.
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Post by phil155 Mon Aug 07, 2023 11:01 am

Is this through next monday 8/14?

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Post by sroc4 Mon Aug 07, 2023 1:05 pm

phil155 wrote:Is this through next monday 8/14?

yes

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by phil155 Mon Aug 07, 2023 3:19 pm

looks like the possibility of severe weather is increasing for the area, according to spc at least

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Post by dkodgis Mon Aug 07, 2023 3:52 pm

Darker here in upper Orange. No wind or rain yet. Woke up to an inch in the gauge at 6:30 am when it was drizzling. I suspect it will get ugly fast BUT the radar is clear except for 35 miles. NW from here  

It’s wait and see. 75 now and humid. Wind out of the south at 18 mph but I don’t see that here. Weather app is showing rain, thunderstorms and I don’t see that either.  So it is off to the garage to set up a monitoring position and monitor the weather with the help of a few Beck beers.
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