August 2023 Observations and Discussion
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amugs
sroc4
rb924119
Radz
dkodgis
docstox12
weatherwatchermom
billg315
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
looks like the possibility of severe weather is increasing for the area, according to spc at least
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
Darker here in upper Orange. No wind or rain yet. Woke up to an inch in the gauge at 6:30 am when it was drizzling. I suspect it will get ugly fast BUT the radar is clear except for 35 miles. NW from here
It’s wait and see. 75 now and humid. Wind out of the south at 18 mph but I don’t see that here. Weather app is showing rain, thunderstorms and I don’t see that either. So it is off to the garage to set up a monitoring position and monitor the weather with the help of a few Beck beers.
It’s wait and see. 75 now and humid. Wind out of the south at 18 mph but I don’t see that here. Weather app is showing rain, thunderstorms and I don’t see that either. So it is off to the garage to set up a monitoring position and monitor the weather with the help of a few Beck beers.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
Tornado watches are going up for New Jersey and Pennsylvania
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
It looks like the western half of NJ. I guess hey are thinking the storms would be weakening a bit as they move towards the eastern part of the state as we lose some of the daytime heating even though this is a more synoptically driven event?
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
Severe t-storm watch went up for all of eastern jersey NYC area and western, CT. whoever is in front or along that bowing line in south and central NJ is probably going to see some winds in excess of 70mph. That whole line is pretty brutal looking, i think it holds together to some degree.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
For tornadoes, that does not put the rest of the area out of the risk of severe winds or a brief tornado per the watch that just went up. That beastly line is working into western NJ now, the wind damage reports to the west are expansive.phil155 wrote:It looks like the western half of NJ. I guess hey are thinking the storms would be weakening a bit as they move towards the eastern part of the state as we lose some of the daytime heating even though this is a more synoptically driven event?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
If you watch radar the whole thing is actually moving to the NE and the bow is trying to push out more to the north of it, should be interesting next several hours. Everyone stay safe.
https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1kphla_h.gif
https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1kphla_h.gif
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
Tornado watch extended to the east. I agree that bowing line looks very intense and there will be some straight line wind damage for many in the path of that
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
Phila’s gonna catch hell
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
Wow, most of the line is moving 55-65 mph to the NE per the storm warnings, thats nuts and will cause very intense winds, wonder how far east it will get.
Mesoscale Discussion 1897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023
Areas affected...New Jersey
Concerning...Tornado Watch 605...
Valid 072257Z - 080030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 605 continues.
SUMMARY...Squall line will surge across New Jersey this evening.
Damaging winds are the primary risk, though a brief tornado or two
remains possible.
DISCUSSION...Primary short-wave trough has advanced into the upper
OH Valley, extending from southeast ON into eastern OH. MCS has
evolved well ahead of this feature with a surging squall line now
advancing across southeast PA/northern DE. Latest radar data
suggests an MCV has evolved over Chester County PA and this is
indicative of the organized nature of this cluster. With surface
temperatures in the lower 80s across NJ, MLCAPE values are
seasonally high with values around 1500 J/kg immediately ahead of
the surging bow. Leading edge of the bow should track across central
NJ over the next hour or so, eventually approaching western portions
of Long Island with an attendant wind threat.
..Darrow.. 08/07/2023
Mesoscale Discussion 1897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023
Areas affected...New Jersey
Concerning...Tornado Watch 605...
Valid 072257Z - 080030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 605 continues.
SUMMARY...Squall line will surge across New Jersey this evening.
Damaging winds are the primary risk, though a brief tornado or two
remains possible.
DISCUSSION...Primary short-wave trough has advanced into the upper
OH Valley, extending from southeast ON into eastern OH. MCS has
evolved well ahead of this feature with a surging squall line now
advancing across southeast PA/northern DE. Latest radar data
suggests an MCV has evolved over Chester County PA and this is
indicative of the organized nature of this cluster. With surface
temperatures in the lower 80s across NJ, MLCAPE values are
seasonally high with values around 1500 J/kg immediately ahead of
the surging bow. Leading edge of the bow should track across central
NJ over the next hour or so, eventually approaching western portions
of Long Island with an attendant wind threat.
..Darrow.. 08/07/2023
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
Wind is really picking up here and the storms are not even close....
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
windy by me and just started to rain nothing crazy . It looks like the storms are weakeningjmanley32 wrote:Wind is really picking up here and the storms are not even close....
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
Nothing up here of note, a little thunder and a shower.Oddly, my power went out from 9 to 9:30.Guess the line weakend or broke up by the time it got to my area.Cloudy, 68, calm winds.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
Nothing happened here other than thunder and lightning and barely any rain. Gauge barely had any water in it. I was surprised. It got darker early but no storm
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
had some very loud thunder last night, one sounded like an explosion
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:Another winter-related post to keep us cool(er) than we have been so far this month folks, the EURO seasonals came out last night, and for a model that can’t find cold air in its extended range, HOT DIGGITY they are SCRUMPTIOUS!! Lock us in from November through presumably March. I said that I really liked the idea of a fast and strong start in November and December in my earlier post, but I also said that I wasn’t sure about whether or not we could lock in through the rest of the season. I’m still not sure of that, and quite honestly, I am waiting to see how El Niño region 1.2 evolves between now and October before I will likely feel comfortable enough to actually make my stand on a forecast. But, as of now, that is the ONLY piece I am waiting for, because quite honestly, everything else, including modeling (which is worth the least, but still something), is looking pretty darn good. I’m pretty excited, gang, I won’t lie. But again, Niño region 1.2 is the indicator I will be watching very closely.
Carry on
Saw that. Encouraging for sure. The Sub Aleutian Low getting stronger as we head through the three months is what I like most to be honest. Everything else down stream will fall into place if that sets up shop in that location for the season.
Dec-Jan-Feb
There’s a lot to like about this verbatim. The 70/70 ridge is one of my coal mine canaries. And the fact that’s clearly indicated, on top of the fact that the rest of the depicted pattern fits with the presence of that feature, has me more confident than I otherwise would be that the model may be picking up on the general theme. In addition to that, it cools ENSO 1.2 by/during October relative to the other regions, which is HUGELY important in helping to set up the pattern thst its depicting in the Northern Hemisphere starting in December. So, all around, the model agrees with itself all the way around. There are no contradictions anywhere. I’d just like to see 1.2 cool sooner so that we can start really setting things in November rather than have to wait until December……it’s selfish, I know haha
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
_________________
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
dkodgis wrote:A derecho?
A tornado. And that was way upstate NY.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=turin+ny+map&atb=v341-1&t=chromentp&ia=web&iaxm=maps
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
Yes. I read that as 700 feet. 700 yards. 40% of a mile wide. I see what you mean, Scott
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
pouring out..just under an inch of rain this afternoon 70*
PS...don't get me wrong..so happy for my son and his friends..this next stage is what we have been preparing them for all their lives..it is time to let them fly....my mind(and my girlfriends minds) get it....not seeing their faces every day is the hard part.and we know just like those before us..we will survive....we are starting a club..no more pto, book fair, pumpkin patch.swim team, track momming...but we are thinking a bi weekly breakfast club to keep up on what is going on with US..post kids..lol and oooh catching up on sleep..no more having to get up at dawn to make sure they are out of the house...there are positive points to all this change..lol
PS...don't get me wrong..so happy for my son and his friends..this next stage is what we have been preparing them for all their lives..it is time to let them fly....my mind(and my girlfriends minds) get it....not seeing their faces every day is the hard part.and we know just like those before us..we will survive....we are starting a club..no more pto, book fair, pumpkin patch.swim team, track momming...but we are thinking a bi weekly breakfast club to keep up on what is going on with US..post kids..lol and oooh catching up on sleep..no more having to get up at dawn to make sure they are out of the house...there are positive points to all this change..lol
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
weatherwatchermom wrote:pouring out..just under an inch of rain this afternoon 70*
PS...don't get me wrong..so happy for my son and his friends..this next stage is what we have been preparing them for all their lives..it is time to let them fly....my mind(and my girlfriends minds) get it....not seeing their faces every day is the hard part.and we know just like those before us..we will survive....we are starting a club..no more pto, book fair, pumpkin patch.swim team, track momming...but we are thinking a bi weekly breakfast club to keep up on what is going on with US..post kids..lol and oooh catching up on sleep..no more having to get up at dawn to make sure they are out of the house...there are positive points to all this change..lol
Mom my two are just starting their teenage years 13 & 14. My oldest is starting HS in the fall. I cant believe how fast that went. My wife and I already know that we will be in your shoes in the next blink of an eye and it scares the crap out of us as well.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
My son is 20 next month and a junior at Univ at Buffalo. He has matured nicely. He is doing what he is supposed to: summer job, money in the bank, money in the market and doing well, a credit card with a zero balance each month. He cooks, cleans up, and is neat. A level head. Two years ago we were all crying when we left him. He goes to the gym regularly. Our daughter is 16 in Oct. it’s like talking to. 30 year old. Does everything right. Big sports star. We now know our kids are on their way. As you say Scott, we are scared too but mostly because it will be just us and ha ha we are not ready for that. It went really fast but we see our two being the people we always wanted to be. And now my wife and I grow old. I still smell perfume but she smells liniment.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
weatherwatchermom wrote:pouring out..just under an inch of rain this afternoon 70*
PS...don't get me wrong..so happy for my son and his friends..this next stage is what we have been preparing them for all their lives..it is time to let them fly....my mind(and my girlfriends minds) get it....not seeing their faces every day is the hard part.and we know just like those before us..we will survive....we are starting a club..no more pto, book fair, pumpkin patch.swim team, track momming...but we are thinking a bi weekly breakfast club to keep up on what is going on with US..post kids..lol and oooh catching up on sleep..no more having to get up at dawn to make sure they are out of the house...there are positive points to all this change..lol
This reminds me of when my Mom and Dad dropped me off at Stevens Tech for a year living in the dorms and my Mom crying.Never forget Mom that we sons will always love our Mom's no matter what and time will never change that.I was blessed to have my Mom many years as she made it to 100 when she passed two years ago.Mom's and Sons have a special magic love that never will be broken!Best of luck to yours,Mom.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
Blink of an eye Doc, so true! Enjoy the days with them.
Damian, hilarious the linament line.You have done a magnificent job raising two fine young people! Meeting you once for lunch I can see why.
So glad reading these posts of fine young people when all you read is negativity.God be with them all!
Damian, hilarious the linament line.You have done a magnificent job raising two fine young people! Meeting you once for lunch I can see why.
So glad reading these posts of fine young people when all you read is negativity.God be with them all!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion
Early this morning around 2 o’clock woke up too crazy loud thunderstorms Nothing crazy just heavy rain, but it was a good lightning show thank God the humidity is going down a perfect day to make tomato sauce
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