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August 2023 Observations and Discussion

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amugs
sroc4
rb924119
Radz
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docstox12
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August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by docstox12 Thu Aug 10, 2023 8:06 pm

Blink of an eye Doc, so true! Enjoy the days with them.
Damian, hilarious the linament line.You have done a magnificent job raising two fine young people! Meeting you once for lunch I can see why.
So glad reading these posts of fine young people when all you read is negativity.God be with them all!

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Post by frank 638 Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:10 am

Early this morning around 2 o’clock woke up too crazy loud thunderstorms Nothing crazy just heavy rain, but it was a good lightning show thank God the humidity is going down a perfect day to make tomato sauce

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Post by docstox12 Sun Aug 13, 2023 6:47 pm

Hit me around 10:30 PM last night frank 638.Most lightening and thunder all summer, a good half hour show.Heavy rain shower as well.Beautiful day today, sunny and calm.Looks like more rain and t storms Mon night and Tues.
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Post by dkodgis Sun Aug 13, 2023 6:53 pm

Yes here it was a half inch Sat into Sun. After 22 years living in our house, this late spring and early summer, I have had to add drainage on one side to handle run-off. It seems no end in sight with rain but where there is all sun, there is desert. Also, Doc, thank you for your kind words.
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August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:57 pm

YES SIR!!!

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1719
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1720
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1718



Last edited by rb924119 on Fri Aug 18, 2023 7:09 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by rb924119 Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:59 pm

We still have a ways to go, but we are approaching a 1°C drop now. Certainly headed in the right direction!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Aug 14, 2023 2:11 pm

sroc4 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:pouring out..just under an inch of rain this afternoon 70*


PS...don't get me wrong..so happy for my son and his friends..this next stage is what we have been preparing them for all their lives..it is time to let them fly....my mind(and my girlfriends minds) get it....not seeing their faces every day is the hard part.and we know just like those before us..we will survive....we are starting a club..no more pto, book fair, pumpkin patch.swim team, track momming...but we are thinking a bi weekly breakfast club to keep up on what is going on with US..post kids..lol and oooh catching up on sleep..no more having to get up at dawn to make sure they are out of the house...there are positive points to all this change..lol

Mom my two are just starting their teenage years 13 & 14.  My oldest is starting HS in the fall.  I cant believe how fast that went.  My wife and I already know that we will be in your shoes in the next blink of an eye and it scares the crap out of us as well.  
My motto is" time is a thief" enjoy every second!
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August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Tue Aug 15, 2023 1:46 pm

Picked up 1.14" overnight.

Keep that warm water moving west and cooling 1.2 down even further.

Friday another trough - looks like a fall map, troughs keep getting more South as the summer progresses now.

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_14

Then after a few days of AN another trough builds in next week Tuesday
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_29

This would be so refreshing if it happens next Tuesday Night
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_T2m_neus_32

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Post by docstox12 Tue Aug 15, 2023 3:05 pm

1.18 inches so far, cloudy, 70, no wind.Was drizzly around 11 am.That map with the 50's would be a nice hint of Fall for sure! Always remembered around mid to late August getting a night in the 40's.Anyway, days noticeably getting shorter now.
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Post by dkodgis Tue Aug 15, 2023 9:45 pm

74 for a high today. From last night to noon, two inches in the rain gauge. Somewhat humid. Does anyone remember such an unseasonable summer?
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Post by amugs Wed Aug 16, 2023 12:08 pm

.12" overnight.
Total is 1.32" from the rains.
Monthly 2.23" so far.

Summer of 2009 was like this if I recall.

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Post by amugs Thu Aug 17, 2023 4:10 pm

This is going to feel splendid strating tomorrow evening!!
Dew Points are tanking!


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August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 17, 2023 8:48 pm

amugs wrote:This is going to feel splendid strating tomorrow evening!!
Dew Points are tanking!

my god for a sec I thought that was tempos I was like whaaa lol
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August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Fri Aug 18, 2023 7:09 pm

rb924119 wrote:YES SIR!!!

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1719
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1720
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1718


Well, this was short-lived 🥺 Brick GFS Model  hahaha

We still have plenty of time, though, the next ten days or so look to continue support for the warming based on expected surface pressure anomalies.

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Post by dkodgis Fri Aug 18, 2023 7:42 pm

I am in Buffalo. 61 right now. 35 mph gusts. Raining off and on
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Post by frank 638 Sat Aug 19, 2023 10:45 am

What a great day today to me, it feels like fall. I love this weather.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Aug 20, 2023 6:41 am

53 degrees, clear,calm.Absolutely beautful day yesterday! Looks like a nice stretch next week,50's-70's.This area is beating the heat the rest of the country has had this summer.
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Aug 20, 2023 7:02 am

Good morning everyone- yesterdays temps and the upcoming week’s forecast of highs in the upper 70’s have made me stir in my summertime hibernation. I absolutely love the transition from summer to fall and now it seems that it might be just a few weeks away! That said, this summer sure has been a mild one, at least down at the Shore.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:52 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Good morning everyone- yesterdays temps and the upcoming week’s forecast of highs in the upper 70’s have made me stir in my summertime hibernation. I absolutely love the transition from summer to fall and now it seems that it might be just a few weeks away! That said, this summer sure has been a mild one, at least down at the Shore.

but we first have to get over the quick bump in the road..tomorrow supposed to be 90 No lol this morning is glorious and we hit a low of 60 its been such a rainy summer...my lawn is still green in August..
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:53 am

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:YES SIR!!!

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1719
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1720
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1718


Well, this was short-lived 🥺 Brick GFS Model  hahaha

We still have plenty of time, though, the next ten days or so look to continue support for the warming based on expected surface pressure anomalies.

can you explain quickly what this all means.. Very Happy
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Post by dkodgis Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:56 am

I saw a report in a week it gets cool(er). Typical around Aug 27.
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Post by frank 638 Mon Aug 21, 2023 7:09 pm

So far for me, we had no 90° in August and I don’t think we will see it anytime soon not that I’m complaining lol

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August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Mon Aug 21, 2023 7:57 pm

Fall like end of the month into Labor Day weekend.

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 F4BKgyNXQAAsKzT?format=jpg&name=900x900

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August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Wed Aug 23, 2023 8:19 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:YES SIR!!!

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1719
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1720
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1718


Well, this was short-lived 🥺 Brick GFS Model  hahaha

We still have plenty of time, though, the next ten days or so look to continue support for the warming based on expected surface pressure anomalies.

can you explain quickly what this all means.. Very Happy

Hey Mom since Ray hasn't been on since the post I figured Id quickly explain.  When in an El Nino year, esp a mod or strong one, one of the most highly correlated with cold and snowy winters for the NE, is when we have what's called a Modoki (pronounced Mo-DA-Kai I believe) El Nino.  
https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/2822/what-is-el-ni%c3%b1o-modoki#2826

This means that the warm tropical pac SSTA are aligned where the warmest anomalies are in the middle of the Trop Pac.  Now when looking at the region known as the Tropical Pacific there are  there are four "Nino" regions.  Nino 1+2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4.  Here is a basic look at where they are located.  
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.api

So essentially when the warmest anomalies are located around Nino 3.4, which if you look at the map above overlaps the eastern Nino 4 and western Nino 3 regions this would be termed a Modoki El Nino.  

On the opposite side of the spectrum when the warmest anomalies tend to live in the eastern Top Pac , ie: Nino 1+2 (see map above), this is highly correlated with warmer and below normal snow anomalies in the NE.  The current SSTA alignment has the warmest anomalies in the eastern Trop Pac.  Ray wants to see Nino 1.2 begin to cool as we head into and deeper into the Fall while Nino 3.4 cont to warm, at least a bit.  Going back to this images (see below), the exact orientation of where the warmest Trop Pac SSTA alighn dictates the larger scale upward and downward forcing, Walker Cell configuration, which when combined with many of the other large scale pattern drivers and enhancers that we have discussed in years past dictates where the 500mb trough and ridges line up over the northern hemisphere.  
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 WalkerElNino_2colorSSTA_610_0

Some things to keep in mind.  Nino 1+2 is very shallow relative to the est of the regions, and is up against western S America.  This allows for a much easier time fortemp swings to occur due to in large part from the upwelling that we discussed in prev discussions.  So any temp changes we see now, for better or worse, should be taken with a grain of salt as within a week or two you can often times see major swings.  So for now we simply watch the trends.  

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 August10

Here is Nino 3.4:

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nino34

And here is Nino 1.2

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nino12

And here is the link to follow these graphs yourself through the rest of summer and fall:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Aug 23, 2023 10:57 am

sroc4 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:YES SIR!!!

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1719
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1720
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_1718


Well, this was short-lived 🥺 Brick GFS Model  hahaha

We still have plenty of time, though, the next ten days or so look to continue support for the warming based on expected surface pressure anomalies.

can you explain quickly what this all means.. Very Happy

Hey Mom since Ray hasn't been on since the post I figured Id quickly explain.  When in an El Nino year, esp a mod or strong one, one of the most highly correlated with cold and snowy winters for the NE, is when we have what's called a Modoki (pronounced Mo-DA-Kai I believe) El Nino.  
https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/2822/what-is-el-ni%c3%b1o-modoki#2826

This means that the warm tropical pac SSTA are aligned where the warmest anomalies are in the middle of the Trop Pac.  Now when looking at the region known as the Tropical Pacific there are  there are four "Nino" regions.  Nino 1+2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4.  Here is a basic look at where they are located.  
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.api

So essentially when the warmest anomalies are located around Nino 3.4, which if you look at the map above overlaps the eastern Nino 4 and western Nino 3 regions this would be termed a Modoki El Nino.  

On the opposite side of the spectrum when the warmest anomalies tend to live in the eastern Top Pac , ie: Nino 1+2 (see map above), this is highly correlated with warmer and below normal snow anomalies in the NE.  The current SSTA alignment has the warmest anomalies in the eastern Trop Pac.  Ray wants to see Nino 1.2 begin to cool as we head into and deeper into the Fall while Nino 3.4 cont to warm, at least a bit.  Going back to this images (see below), the exact orientation of where the warmest Trop Pac SSTA alighn dictates the larger scale upward and downward forcing, Walker Cell configuration, which when combined with many of the other large scale pattern drivers and enhancers that we have discussed in years past dictates where the 500mb trough and ridges line up over the northern hemisphere.  
August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 WalkerElNino_2colorSSTA_610_0

Some things to keep in mind.  Nino 1+2 is very shallow relative to the est of the regions, and is up against western S America.  This allows for a much easier time fortemp swings to occur due to in large part from the upwelling that we discussed in prev discussions.  So any temp changes we see now, for better or worse, should be taken with a grain of salt as within a week or two you can often times see major swings.  So for now we simply watch the trends.  

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 August10

Here is Nino 3.4:

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nino34

And here is Nino 1.2

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Nino12

And here is the link to follow these graphs yourself through the rest of summer and fall:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

Thank you!! I will definitely follow...I will have some time on my hands...lol well, lots of projects planned to keep me busy...but will have time to educate myself on this...Have a great day!! and thank you again!
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Post by rb924119 Wed Aug 23, 2023 5:05 pm

Thanks, Scott! Sorry, Mom, just been super busy, but Scott did a great job in my stead 🙂

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Post by dkodgis Thu Aug 24, 2023 9:46 am

Where there is all sunshine, there is desert.

Looks like rain today; it snuck up on us. Fri is a washout. Right now it is 64 degrees and it can't make up its mind out there. Cloudy with a chance of meatballs...
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