Long Range Thread 27.0

[sroc4]

Morning one and all.  Someone in one of the other threads was asking about the start of this cold season's long range thread so I figured lets get it going.  

Typically come the start of the second week of Sept or so, we begin to look at the Siberian snow cover, and the rate at which it occurs between now through October and its correlation with the AO and Stratospheric influence.  This is based of Dr Judah Cohen's many years of research.  Here is the link to his blog.  As we head deeper he updates it on a weekly bases I believe.  Last update was Sept 5th.  https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/


In a nutshell, the more extensive and rapid the Siberian snow growth between mid Sept; through all of October, the higher statistical chances we have for a more persistent neg
AO(Arctic Oscillation), and higher chances for Stratospheric warming events during the winter months that lead to high latitude blocking such as a -AO, -NAO, etc..

Obviously this is not an exact science.  This information has to get plugged into the big picture complex equation along with all the other variables such as ENSO status, QBO phases, and other large scale Oceanic SSTA configurations in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans, etc, etc...to name a few.  

As you can see in the early going the Siberian snow cover is off to a relatively fast start with above normal snow, so far, in the northern tier of Siberia.  That said last year was pretty much the exact same as what you see below ad we know how last year turned out.   

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2023&ui_day=262&ui_set=2

I will try and get an ENSO update into the LR thread in the upcoming week or so.  If you recall some of R(Ray's) discussion on this we wanted to se Enso region 1+2 begin to cool while Enso regions 3.4 cont to warm.  Put another way we want the warmest anomalies in an El Nino winter to be centered in the central Pacific; not the eastern Pacific. All the trends over the past month have been pointing in that direction.  There i still a long way to go with this and time for things to change, but again as of this writing all good indicators if you're a cold ad snow lover.

[weatherwatchermom]

Thank you as always for a great post! finger crossed...ps I pmd you

[rb924119]

Thank you, Scott, I’ve been patiently waiting for this! details to come in future posts, but I think the majority will like them

[amugs]

nino 3.4 up to 1.6 this week...latest two month MEI number is 0.4.

Some models have it peaking now - good sign.

[amugs]

Great sign for winter E QBO with an El Nino last time was 2014/15!!

[amugs]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-forecast-polar-vortex-el-nino-qbo-strong-impact-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[amugs]

Good sign for upcoming winter if it verifies

[amugs]

This woud a very good pattern for us snow weenies!
-EPO, AO and NAO
A trough NE of Hawaii and over Europe to boot,

[amugs]

Here somes the 1st piece to a colder fall pattern= PNA
Ridge in West = Trough in east - watch for coastals, cutters

[Frank_Wx]

Thank you for starting this thread Scott! I came here just for this. Going to take a couple of days to review the latest trends and come back with my opinion of the upcoming winter.

[amugs]

Patterns like to lock in and repeat themselves 

USING THE PAST 92-DAYS
TO FORECAST TO FUTURE..
I am a believer in pattern recognition as a path to figuring out the long range forecast ahead. When we look at the overall progression of the 500mb pattern (show below) you see a consistent pattern of high latitude blocking over… pic.twitter.com/4QCclE1C9n

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) October 8, 2023

[sroc4]

Siberian Snow growth has def slowed.  We still have another 3 weeks or so for things to turn around, but for now we are below normal to normal throughout most of Siberia and N Canada.

Here is a snippet from Dr J Cohen's latest Blog from Oct 3rd.  Here is the link for the full blog:
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/


Currently snow cover extent across Siberia is close to average for this early date in the snow advance season (see Figure ii). But I do expect snow cover advance to either slow down or even retreat next week.  And with the overall circulation across Asia settling into a western trough/eastern ridge pattern the prospects for above normal snow cover for the month of October are looking bleak.  This is especially surprising to me given that snow cover extent has been perennially above normal for the past decade (last below normal month of October was in 2011) and for an overwhelming majority of the past two decades and that it is an El Niño fall, which has favored higher snow cover extent than La Niña.

Assuming Eurasian snow cover extent is below normal this month, this would favor an overall strong PV in the winter months and milder temperatures across the mid-latitude continents of the NH probably more so for the Eastern US and East Asia than Europe, though Europe seems to be warm these days regardless.

But the pattern looks to be mostly progressive and maybe by the end of October the pattern will be more conducive to more rapid snow cover advance across Siberia.  Certainly, if you believe the CFS, November looks like a much more interesting month (see Figure 12). But when I start pointing to the CFS as my best sign of hope, you know that I am desperate.

Of course, if I feel that the community relies too heavily on ENSO in seasonal forecasting, so I don’t want to overplay the accuracy of snow cover alone in making a winter forecast (a fact many are very happy to point out to me) and there seems to be many potentially important players in determining the character of this upcoming winter.  El Niño is related to a deeper Aleutian low and that seems to be a more common feature in the weather maps of late and shows up nicely in Figure 8.  A deeper Aleutian low this winter would favor a weaker PV and possibly colder temperatures in the Eastern US.

Besides snow cover I also look at Arctic sea ice extent but not much new from the most recent blog and I will focus on that more next month while I focus on snow cover for this month.

[heehaw453]

Hello all! Popping in.
I'll speak to eastern Canada. Places like Labrador City (squared) October is historically a good snowfall month.  Average about 16" or so.  Last year they had a few inches in October and this is what eastern CA looks like now the darker the colors the more snow depth. Even the extreme coast of Baffin Island, Nunuvat (circled) by this time of year should have a 1' of snow OTG. Here's a web cam shot of it. I have no idea what this winter season holds but given 2019-20/2022-23, I'm skeptical.

[docstox12]

Not a very good sign , that snow growth and the correlation to crummy winters here.Is there any information on where and if the El Nino will set up, East, Central or West?

[amugs]

Here are some great signs that I shall give you hope for the winter.

The east QBO descending further down is shown here in the European forecast model as we go into Fall and Winter. This forecast confirms that a mature negative QBO phase could be in place for the 2023/24 Winter season. pic.twitter.com/ozrWsMgsXm

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) October 12, 2023

[docstox12]

Great news Mugsy!!!

[rb924119]

Some very interesting things going on, for sure, and it’s quite a jigsaw puzzle to try and figure out. One thing that I will say, though, is that based on some of the stuff I’m seeing, I do not expect this current pattern to hold for the foreseeable future. It looks to me like this is going to break down in about 3-4 weeks, and possibly reverse quite significantly for a time. But happens beyond that could be quite the show, as we might reap the reward of an early SSW event that locks and rocks for us possibly just in time for the holidays this is all preliminary musings from dabbles here and there, of course, and I might be able to steal some time to really sit and ponder what this winter might look like. All in all, though, I think this winter has some BIG potential to rival some of the greats.

[rb924119]

Heehaw, good to see you back! Regarding your post, ridging over eastern Canada/Baffin Island can be a good thing

Scott, interesting post about Siberian snow extent, although, personally, I don’t put much stock into it. I’m not quite sure that it has as stout of an effect as it’s thought to. Just my opinion, though.

[sroc4]

Heehaw, good to see you back! Regarding your post, ridging over eastern Canada/Baffin Island can be a good thing

Scott, interesting post about Siberian snow extent, although, personally, I don’t put much stock into it. I’m not quite sure that it has as stout of an effect as it’s thought to. Just my opinion, though.

Well I suppose like everything else it’s all a part of the big picture. If there is an El Niño how strong/weak is it and is it east/west/central/basin wide. Is there above/below avg Siberian snow growth and cover? If there is what other major pattern drivers are present to either enhance or mute the Siberian snow cover anomalies? Like you said it’s a jig saw puzzle. The state of QBO is looking like a pattern enhancer combined with the El Niño enhancing the transport of warmth into the Strat which could be one reason the below avg Siberian snow might not be that big a deal this year. Things are def beginning to show itself but we still have a ways to go to see how it all shakes out. MJO and OLR anomalies over the past month or too have been interesting as well should this same pattern maintain deeper into the cold months.

[docstox12]

Heehaw, good to see you back! Regarding your post, ridging over eastern Canada/Baffin Island can be a good thing

Scott, interesting post about Siberian snow extent, although, personally, I don’t put much stock into it. I’m not quite sure that it has as stout of an effect as it’s thought to. Just my opinion, though.

Well I suppose like everything else it’s all a part of the big picture. If there is an El Niño how strong/weak is it and is it east/west/central/basin wide. Is there above/below avg Siberian snow growth and cover?  If there is what other major pattern drivers are present to either enhance or mute the Siberian snow cover anomalies?  Like you said it’s a jig saw puzzle. The state of QBO is looking like a pattern enhancer combined with the El Niño enhancing the transport of warmth into the Strat which could be one reason the below avg Siberian snow might not be that big a deal this year. Things are def beginning to show itself but we still have a ways to go to see how it all shakes out. MJO and OLR anomalies over the past month or too have been interesting as well should this same pattern maintain deeper into the cold months.

Great point! When I actively traded for 20 years, I would use 10 to 15 technical indicators to make a decision .I would see how many pointed to the good possibilty of a trade being profitable.If you got 75% of them to line up, you had a good chance.They don't all line up like ducks in a row, but if the majority do, well....

[amugs]

Late last march we showed the pattern we expected to evolve for this winter keying on analogs coming out of last winter and the climate cycle response we are in, This came up with the threat of the big winter. latest JMA LOOKS LIKE OUR ANALOGS,from last spring!
IMPLIES MAJOR… pic.twitter.com/w9UasKbZho

— The American Storm (@BigJoeBastardi) October 16, 2023

[amugs]

Good to see cooling in WPAC off the SA coasts for region 1.2 of ENSO and a warming in the Gulf of Alaska



1.2 cooling which is good



Good forecast for winter to cool down 1.2 so it is not East Based Nino



3.4 Warming which is good too

[amugs]

[sroc4]

Here is DT’s (Dave Tolleris) preliminary winter thoughts. Very sound reasoning as to how he is coming to his conclusions. That said doesn’t mean it’s going to pan out. Definitely Encouraging but still needs little more time to see how things evolve.

https://wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/_pda/2023/10/winter-2023-24.pdf

[amugs]

Very good read and winter forecast Paul Dorian.

https://arcfieldweather.com/blog/2023/10/17/2023-2024-winter-outlook-by-arcfield-weather

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