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Long Range Thread 27.0

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 16, 2024 1:34 pm

Irish wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I mentioned an inverted trough the other day

Starting to think that will be the outcome here

But threat of a bigger storm remains. Won’t take much as Heehaw points out
Do inverted troughs mean more or less of a likelihood of a powerful storm?

If you're under the banding that occurs via an inverted trough you can do very well.  But they are very hard to predict exact locations so nowcasting is often needed.  And its much less wide spread for sure.
Ugh, that's rough. So, we'd much rather not have an inverted trough.

We could have both!

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 16, 2024 1:49 pm

Every model has a minimum snow accumulation of 1” for Friday. The current max depending on the model is about 5”. If the trends continue at 500mb, these numbers will go way up.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 16, 2024 2:07 pm

After Fridays system, we will enter a mild stretch that is likely to last for 10 days (21st to 31st) +\- 2 days. It’s my strong belief that this will act as a reset and then by Feb 1st +/- 2 days we will be back to a colder than normal regime and tracking snowstorms.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by SENJsnowman Tue Jan 16, 2024 2:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Every model has a minimum snow accumulation of 1” for Friday. The current max depending on the model is about 5”. If the trends continue at 500mb, these numbers will go way up.

This optimism by our fearless leader Frank feels extra inspiring today!

We track! What a Face

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 16, 2024 2:30 pm

The 12Z EPS was a nice step. Shows a clustering of rapidly deepening L slightly SE of BM.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Eps95

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by tomsriversnowstorm Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:00 pm

We need to be careful of how west this comes. The icon had rain for many.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:07 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:We need to be careful of how west this comes. The icon had rain for many.

Toms River. What site are you looking at? ICON looked pretty good to me.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Prateptype_cat_icon-imp.conus
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Prateptype_cat_icon-imp.conus

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by MattyICE Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:09 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:We need to be careful of how west this comes. The icon had rain for many.

I would think with the TPV in SE Canada there’s a way bigger risk of suppressed/sheared out/late to phase OTS.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by tomsriversnowstorm Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:24 pm

A good portion of Jersey has green on your map. Sorry but I am rooting for it to stay east. I don’t want rain. I will take my few inches.

quote="sroc4"]
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:We need to be careful of how west this comes. The icon had rain for many.

Toms River.  What site are you looking at?  ICON looked pretty good to me.  

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Prateptype_cat_icon-imp.conus
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Prateptype_cat_icon-imp.conus
[/quote]

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Irish Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:34 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:A good portion of Jersey has green on your map. Sorry but I am rooting for it to stay east. I don’t want rain. I will take my few inches.

quote="sroc4"]
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:We need to be careful of how west this comes. The icon had rain for many.

Toms River.  What site are you looking at?  ICON looked pretty good to me.  

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Prateptype_cat_icon-imp.conus
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Prateptype_cat_icon-imp.conus
[/quote]
On that map, it looks like only the smallest strip down the shore sees green. The rest of the state is all snow. Either way, it's too early to say.
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:39 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:A good portion of Jersey has green on your map. Sorry but I am rooting for it to stay east. I don’t want rain. I will take my few inches.

quote="sroc4"]
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:We need to be careful of how west this comes. The icon had rain for many.

Toms River.  What site are you looking at?  ICON looked pretty good to me.  

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Prateptype_cat_icon-imp.conus
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Prateptype_cat_icon-imp.conus
[/quote]

Look closer.  with the exception of extreme SE coastal NJ in this one frame, its all snow.  Assuming your call name is indicative of where you live you would be right on the northern fringe of the R/S line in the first frame.   IF, and that's a big IF, the ICON has this right, and we are deepening a low, with this track, and the surrounding upper and mod level energy adn temp profiles, and an arctic HP to our north, 90% of NJ is snowing pretty much the entire time.  That said I can see how if it comes in too far NW your particular back yard could have rain to snow.   

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Icon210
Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Icon_110

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Post by tomsriversnowstorm Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:42 pm

I get what you’re saying that is why I am rooting for it to stay east. This way the whole board gets a few inches and no one see any rain.

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:47 pm

The 18Z NAM is moving things in the right direction for Friday...

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:55 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:GEM holds for the most part.  Conts to insist on a well organized storm.  How close to the coast can it get?  CMC and RGEM did a great job with todays system.  

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 1705665600-eO5RwLXdfcE
hey scott back from my banishment to banter lol. Does thishave a much higher potential thsn today?

Jon...Its GREAT to have you back!. LOL. All kidding aside yes I'd say Fridays potential has a higher ceiling as of now still than todays event. Doesnt mean we reach that ceiling; however. If it comes together like the Canadian series is depicting Godzilla plus is most certainly on the table. IMHO the way things are shaping up its the coastal plain that has the best chance. That said there is still alot of work to do to get there, and I am by no means claiming any one soln is going to happen just yet. Im still in the, just give the models until 12z tomorrow to marinate on this before I begin to mold my final thoughts. When the Euro initialized this was where the two key players where on the board. Our southern piece will make it onshore today into tonight.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Cmc11

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 16, 2024 4:15 pm

Time to start a thread























Hehehe

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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 16, 2024 4:20 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Time to start a thread























Hehehe
NOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 16, 2024 4:22 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:GEM holds for the most part.  Conts to insist on a well organized storm.  How close to the coast can it get?  CMC and RGEM did a great job with todays system.  

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 1705665600-eO5RwLXdfcE
hey scott back from my banishment to banter lol. Does thishave a much higher potential thsn today?

Jon...Its GREAT to have you back!.  LOL.  All kidding aside yes I'd say Fridays potential has a higher ceiling as of now still than todays event.  Doesnt mean we reach that ceiling; however.  If it comes together like the Canadian series is depicting Godzilla plus is most certainly on the table.  IMHO the way things are shaping up its the coastal plain that has the best chance.  That said there is still alot of work to do to get there, and I am by no means claiming any one soln is going to happen just yet.  Im still in the, just give the models until 12z tomorrow to marinate on this before I begin to mold my final thoughts.  When the Euro initialized this was where the two key players where on the board.  Our southern piece will make it onshore today into tonight.

Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Cmc11
Did you see my PM response? Yes I completely understand? Will the minimum be more than 1 inch? If so I will have to be happy with that because that's what I got today and I will say it was better than nothing. I hold no one, no one to any one solution as we know and saw by last nights SR models even when it comes to game time as you stated, the weather is gonna do what it is gonna do. Lets track! And I like the overall positive sounds so far.
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Long Range Thread 27.0 - Page 40 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

Post by Irish Tue Jan 16, 2024 4:49 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Time to start a thread























Hehehe
Might as well. Something is brewing. The weather doesn't know that we started thread, it's gonna do what it's gonna do.

-------
Since too many posts were made, this topic has been divided automatically. You can find the rest of this topic here :
https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t1159-long-range-thread-27-0
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:10 am

Let's see if this comes to fruition - just in time from middle of February through mid March.


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