Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[Dunnzoo]

wowzer, good thing I don't travel for Thanksgiving!

[weatherwatchermom]

wowzer, good thing I don't travel for Thanksgiving!

and this is why I booked son on the train to come home instead of us going to get him and bring him back(thank goodness he is coming home on Monday).. Lol. I felt like a terrible mom..but when we tried it out and brought him home for Columbus Day 3 day weekend it worked out great! He slept the 4 hours or played on his phone! and the station is only about 20 min from home... we drove up for parents weekend last Thurs and it took us 6 hours going up...urgh..so I have booked Christmas and Presidents weekend and spring break..

[jmanley32]

00z GFS has a 974mb bomb just off coast, ferocious winds, heavy rain and interior snow. I see above it showed on the 9th, might be something to watch. Not thinking it would snow to the coast but we are driving the 2 hr drive to CT for thanksgiving so yeah that won't be fun.

[amugs]

[dkodgis]

Mugs, did you notice that parenthetically next to Thickness it says (dam). 

Must be a typo. 

[amugs]

JMA shows absolutely delectable run now for January and February!! I mean absolutely mint.

Trough over EC, Heights over PNA,EPP and NAO and AO regions. You have cold air source barking - the arctic hounds are howling!! The storm track look great - coastals coming out of the GOM and up the coast. If tihs does not excited you??

[amugs]

Mugs, did you notice that parenthetically next to Thickness it says (dam). 

Must be a typo. 

Never noticed that but ....DAM !!!!!!!!!!

[amugs]

This is what the JMA is harping at:

[heehaw453]

Mugs, did you notice that parenthetically next to Thickness it says (dam). 

Must be a typo. 

It's thickness (vertical distance between two pressures of the troposphere) of the troposphere and generally demonstrates the temp and moisture of the atmosphere called virtual temp. So when you say 540 line it means that there is 5400 meters between 500mb and 1000mb (surface < 1000'). Generally speaking if the 540 line passes to your south the atmosphere usually is sufficiently cold and moist enough to support snow. Highly elevated areas can tolerate much higher values like > 546. Of course any given event has many more variables and the 540 line is not hard and fast. Like if you have sneaky warm tongues at any layer then it's not going to be snow. Once a snowflake melts it's over in terms of pure snow and that's why I'm never a believer in prodigious accumulations w/out sufficiently cold air in place.

Our resident meteorologists like RB and quiteace I'm sure have much more insight into this. But I like this article for explanation

[dkodgis]

I was kidding about the typo but I also really did not know what the term was about. And now, a breakthrough for me.  Interesting article. It is nice to make a connection and understand more. Thank you!

[heehaw453]

So far I like what I see in ENSO state for at least 20" of snow in the NYC area. If you look at historically since 1900 December matters. In other words if NYC is to get 40"+ this season December is going to have measurable snowfall at Central Park. In 123 years there's not been one case where December is a blank and NYC gets 40"+. A vast majority of the time if the season is going to be good it starts in December.

December snowfalls in NYC Central Park when seasonal total >= 40"

 

	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	April	Totals
1995-1996	2.9	11.5	26.1	21.2	13.2	0.7	75.6
1947-1948	T	30.2	15.3	13.6	4.8	0	63.9
1948-1949	T	25.3	1.8	10.7	4.2	0	42
1904-1905	0.5	21.7	18.4	5.8	1.8	T	48.2
2010-2011	T	20.1	36	4.8	1	T	61.9
2003-2004	0	19.8	17.3	0.7	4.8	0	42.6
1960-1961	0	18.6	16.7	18.2	1.2	T	54.7
1933-1934	0.5	14.9	0.1	27.9	8.6	0	52
1916-1917	T	14.5	5.8	12.2	11.7	6.5	50.7
2009-2010	0	12.4	2.1	36.9	T	0	51.4
1963-1964	T	11.3	13.3	14.1	6	T	44.7
2002-2003	T	11	4.7	26.1	3.5	4	49.3
2005-2006	T	9.7	2	26.9	1.3	0.1	40
1966-1967	0	9.1	1.4	23.6	17.4	T	51.5
1919-1920	T	8.8	8.2	25.3	5.3	T	47.6
1957-1958	T	8.7	9.2	10.7	15.9	0.2	44.7
2013-2014	T	8.6	19.7	29	0.1	T	57.4
1915-1916	T	8.1	0.7	13.1	25.5	3.3	50.7
1922-1923	1	8	24.5	18.8	8.1	T	60.4
2017-2018	T	7.7	11.2	4.9	11.6	5.5	40.9
1993-1994	T	6.9	12	26.4	8.1	0	53.4
2004-2005	T	3	15.3	15.8	6.9	0	41
2014-2015	0.2	1	16.9	13.6	18.6	0	50.3
1977-1978	0.2	0.4	20.3	23	6.8	T	50.7
1906-1907	1	0.3	11	21.8	13.3	5.8	53.2
1913-1914	T	0.3	1.3	17.4	21.5	T	40.5

[amugs]

This shows that the atmopshere and Nino have not coupled which is interesting since the strongish Nino would have overwhelmed the pattern with more Pacific Air thank not. I'd say Nino has peaked.





EPS is picking up on MJO phase 1 now and its going to build.

[sroc4]

IMO we may have to look for interior to get a legit shot at a measurable snow for Turkey day weekend.  The -WPO, -EPO, and +PNA all support a legit cross polar flow and arctic air intrusion into Canada and the Northern plains for sure; but then bleed into the NE.  Coldest air of the season for sure if this comes to fruition.  As Mugsy points out this set up is supported by the MJO forecast of 8-1.

That said the PNA is forecast to go back negative after around 26th-27th on EPS bt stays positive on GEFS.  If it goes negative again we likely would get a storm crash the WC and thwart snow chances.

Nothing set in stone, even cold air yet, but cold air is first thing we need when building a snow storm.  So we watch for now.  

[amugs]

GFS says hi next week for turkey day. let the interior get theirs first, it shall come.

[dkodgis]

A dusting. Just enough to make life slippery

[heehaw453]

If this is any indication of the type of h5 we see a lot this winter season then things will be quite different than last season. What strikes me is there seems to be a lot of instability in the TPV early on. As has been said by sroc the cold is the key ingredient.

[amugs]

WOOF!! GEFS



You get a 50/50 Low Pressure in there between the N EPO and P PNA ridge with the NAO block then game on for a snow storm!!!

[amugs]

From Map below my takeaways. Any thoughts love to read.

1 - PDO seeing some warming still, effects?

2 - East Based 1.2 Nino Cooling bigly

3 - Dateline Nino Region warming

4 - Western IOD warming - phase

8-1-2 regions = BOOM!! pic.twitter.com/Vf02vUpipY

— Al Mugno (@MugnoaAl) November 15, 2023

Also look at 46 day mean on euro weeklies It has consistently shown rising and sinking air in these regions which would be representing favorable MJO rotation... Anything can happen but this is a good sign pic.twitter.com/oco8jVuFUd

— Will Ciccone (@weatherwilly) November 15, 2023

[amugs]

Teleconnections are looking good to great for this time of year:

AO goes Negative - Cold Arctic Air plunges in


EPO goes moderately Negative - drills cold polar air in and pumps up the PNA (west coast ridge)


NAO goes Negative which blocks storms, slows them down and if we get a 50/50 low to lock in under this which does occur then we WILL snow

[rb924119]

If this is any indication of the type of h5 we see a lot this winter season then things will be quite different than last season. What strikes me is there seems to be a lot of instability in the TPV early on. As has been said by sroc the cold is the key ingredient.

IT’S COMING.


Some of you may remember me posting way back in the Summer that I thought November would be generally below average, and I was thinking that we might end up running the table through March, but that I wasn’t sure at that point because it was far too early to see how things would evolve for the heart of the Winter (back in July, I think? Maybe somebody can find the post(s) if you’re really bored haha). But I did say that IF things evolved in way that would allow us to run the table, we could challenge some of the Greats. Anyway, November is likely to finish below average, so that part of the early discussion looks good.

HOWEVER, the uncertainty that I had regarding whether or not we would likely run the table is not zero, BUT it’s pretty low lol I’ll have a more detailed discussion at some point in the near-ish future, but everything that I was looking to see happen is happening. Between the long-standing pattern of recurrent Northern Hemisphere blocking events, the tropics, the Stratosphere, and everything in between, I feel pretty confident that this winter is gonna be pretty memorable. I don’t want to say that it’s going to be historic because I’m not that confident - this is only really my second winter outlook ever, and “historic” events are historic for a reason…..they don’t happen often lol but, if there was ever a year that I’d pick the setup for it, this would be it. We have A LOT going for us this season, I think.

Regarding the potential pre-Thanksgiving snow, I have to look more deeply, but I’m not sold on the setup - the western ridging looks too disjointed and negatively interferes with the streamflow such that the phase would be too far northwest for us to capitalize on any snow.

Regardless of the above event, I think we should get as much sleep as we can while we can, because come December, things may ramp up pretty quickly and have us tracking, especially in time for the holidays

[rb924119]

Mugs, did you notice that parenthetically next to Thickness it says (dam). 

Must be a typo. 

It's thickness (vertical distance between two pressures of the troposphere) of the troposphere and generally demonstrates the temp and moisture of the atmosphere called virtual temp. So when you say 540 line it means that there is 5400 meters between 500mb and 1000mb (surface < 1000'). Generally speaking if the 540 line passes to your south the atmosphere usually is sufficiently cold and moist enough to support snow. Highly elevated areas can tolerate much higher values like > 546. Of course any given event has many more variables and the 540 line is not hard and fast. Like if you have sneaky warm tongues at any layer then it's not going to be snow. Once a snowflake melts it's over in terms of pure snow and that's why I'm never a believer in prodigious accumulations w/out sufficiently cold air in place.

Our resident meteorologists like RB and quiteace I'm sure have much more insight into this. But I like this article for explanation

For the record, this is beautiful lol not sure if it’s been done already, but I vote to have this duplicated in the learning/education thread.

[rb924119]

The period from approximately November 27th through December 1st needs to be watched very closely for our first shot at a legitimate winter storm. I very much like the look of this period…….

[heehaw453]

If this is any indication of the type of h5 we see a lot this winter season then things will be quite different than last season. What strikes me is there seems to be a lot of instability in the TPV early on. As has been said by sroc the cold is the key ingredient.

IT’S COMING.


Some of you may remember me posting way back in the Summer that I thought November would be generally below average, and I was thinking that we might end up running the table through March, but that I wasn’t sure at that point because it was far too early to see how things would evolve for the heart of the Winter (back in July, I think? Maybe somebody can find the post(s) if you’re really bored haha). But I did say that IF things evolved in way that would allow us to run the table, we could challenge some of the Greats. Anyway, November is likely to finish below average, so that part of the early discussion looks good.

HOWEVER, the uncertainty that I had regarding whether or not we would likely run the table is not zero, BUT it’s pretty low lol I’ll have a more detailed discussion at some point in the near-ish future, but everything that I was looking to see happen is happening. Between the long-standing pattern of recurrent Northern Hemisphere blocking events, the tropics, the Stratosphere, and everything in between, I feel pretty confident that this winter is gonna be pretty memorable. I don’t want to say that it’s going to be historic because I’m not that confident - this is only really my second winter outlook ever, and “historic” events are historic for a reason…..they don’t happen often lol but, if there was ever a year that I’d pick the setup for it, this would be it. We have A LOT going for us this season, I think.

Regarding the potential pre-Thanksgiving snow, I have to look more deeply, but I’m not sold on the setup - the western ridging looks too disjointed and negatively interferes with the streamflow such that the phase would be too far northwest for us to capitalize on any snow.

Regardless of the above event, I think we should get as much sleep as we can while we can, because come December, things may ramp up pretty quickly and have us tracking, especially in time for the holidays

Rb one of my all time favorites. Any shot at something like this?

[rb924119]

If this is any indication of the type of h5 we see a lot this winter season then things will be quite different than last season. What strikes me is there seems to be a lot of instability in the TPV early on. As has been said by sroc the cold is the key ingredient.

IT’S COMING.


Some of you may remember me posting way back in the Summer that I thought November would be generally below average, and I was thinking that we might end up running the table through March, but that I wasn’t sure at that point because it was far too early to see how things would evolve for the heart of the Winter (back in July, I think? Maybe somebody can find the post(s) if you’re really bored haha). But I did say that IF things evolved in way that would allow us to run the table, we could challenge some of the Greats. Anyway, November is likely to finish below average, so that part of the early discussion looks good.

HOWEVER, the uncertainty that I had regarding whether or not we would likely run the table is not zero, BUT it’s pretty low lol I’ll have a more detailed discussion at some point in the near-ish future, but everything that I was looking to see happen is happening. Between the long-standing pattern of recurrent Northern Hemisphere blocking events, the tropics, the Stratosphere, and everything in between, I feel pretty confident that this winter is gonna be pretty memorable. I don’t want to say that it’s going to be historic because I’m not that confident - this is only really my second winter outlook ever, and “historic” events are historic for a reason…..they don’t happen often lol but, if there was ever a year that I’d pick the setup for it, this would be it. We have A LOT going for us this season, I think.

Regarding the potential pre-Thanksgiving snow, I have to look more deeply, but I’m not sold on the setup - the western ridging looks too disjointed and negatively interferes with the streamflow such that the phase would be too far northwest for us to capitalize on any snow.

Regardless of the above event, I think we should get as much sleep as we can while we can, because come December, things may ramp up pretty quickly and have us tracking, especially in time for the holidays

Rb one of my all time favorites. Any shot at something like this?

I don’t really do much analoging, BUT, to serve as a demonstration as to where I think this season is headed, I will say this: I think we can do even better than ‘13-‘14.

Here’s a general depiction of what I think the time-mean pattern is going to look like this season:

[rb924119]

That’s highly preliminary, of course, but just as an idea. If I wanted to give a proper analog package, I’ll have to really sit down and do a lot of research. But, I don’t like to analog forecast anyway because I feel like each season is too unique, so my forecast will be based on things other than analogs, even though I may use analogs to demonstrate things haha

[amugs]

MJO in the cold phases = potential Top analog is 02-03 with 76-77 mixed in and 14-15. Time will tell.

[aiannone]

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