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Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia

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Post by billg315 Fri Sep 22, 2023 5:55 pm

As of the 5 p.m. NHC Advisory Tropical Storm Ophelia now has 70 mph winds. It is strengthening and central pressure has dropped to 986 mb. The circulation center is becoming well defined and the radar is very impressive. A Hurricane Watch is now up for NC which means they believe this could very well be a hurricane by next Advisory or overnight.

Since this is stronger than projected originally we should probably keep a close eye on its potential impacts here, especially wind and heavy rain. Either way tomorrow should be an interesting day for observations.

Kudos to Rb who seems to have nailed this more rapid intensification, and maybe even the slightly more eastern track.
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Post by billg315 Fri Sep 22, 2023 5:56 pm

Conditions already deteriorating up and down the Southeast and southern mid-Atlantic coast. Landfall still 12 hours away.
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Post by billg315 Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:00 pm

Current projected landfall is about 4 a.m. near Beaufort NC. Earlier they projected 70 mph winds at landfall (which it is already up to 12 hours early). I'm thinking it will be slightly stronger than that by 4 a.m.
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Post by billg315 Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:06 pm

Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia Img_2710
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:15 pm

Bill what time are we expecting rain to move in, tonight, tomorrow? Its crazy how far the outer bands stretch north.
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Post by billg315 Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:17 pm

Right now we could see rainfall by dawn tomorrow, although I think heavier rain would move in later in the morning to near midday.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:31 pm

Yeah figured so no garage sale hunting and looks like next weekend too snd this is primo time year for me stock up for holidays. And after october its over till march or april. I gotta move somewhere they have sales year round lol.

In regards to ophelia with the change in intensity, that could have ripple impacts for the future of ophelia too. Including track possibly.
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Post by billg315 Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:34 pm

TWC says 46 mph wind gusts already in Norfolk VA. That’s a couple hundred miles from storm center.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:46 pm

billg315 wrote:TWC says 46 mph wind gusts already in Norfolk VA. That’s a couple hundred miles from storm center.
impressive windfield.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:47 pm

billg315 wrote:TWC says 46 mph wind gusts already in Norfolk VA. That’s a couple hundred miles from storm center.

Already gusting 40+ here, Bill, so can confirm that’s probably accurate.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:50 pm

We’ll see what the future holds, but I’m feeling pretty good about the intensity aspect of my forecast. The track forecast is definitely out on a limb right now though, and that limb is starting to break some fiber haha

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Post by billg315 Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:53 pm

Yeah Rb, it looks to make landfall in NC, but, I think earlier models of it heading to central PA were also overdone to the west. This looks to me to stay pretty close to the seaboard as it heads north - albeit inland.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:58 pm

billg315 wrote:Yeah Rb, it looks to make landfall in NC, but, I think earlier models of it heading to central PA were also overdone to the west. This looks to me to stay pretty close to the seaboard as it heads north - albeit inland.

I can’t say that I disagree, and by later tonight if I don’t see anything notable I’ll jump ship from my forecast track. If the GFS is right, I might get a second chance anyway hahaha freakin’ model -_- lol

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Post by rb924119 Fri Sep 22, 2023 7:09 pm

I’ll say one thing, we just had a wicked sunset here. These sailors got this one wrong lol

Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia Img_1818
Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia Img_1817
Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia Img_1816
Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia Img_1820
Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia Img_1819

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 22, 2023 8:08 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Yeah figured so no garage sale hunting and looks like next weekend too snd this is primo time year for me stock up for holidays. And after october its over till march or april. I gotta move somewhere they have sales year round lol.

In regards to ophelia with the change in intensity, that could have ripple impacts for the future of ophelia too. Including track possibly.

Oct 14 townwide garage here in Hazlet


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 22, 2023 8:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by billg315 Fri Sep 22, 2023 8:10 pm

NHC 8 pm Advisory: Winds holding at 70 mph, pressure dropped slightly to 984 mb. Heading NNW at 12 mph. Still Tropical Storm strength just shy of Hurricane status. We’ll see if it gets there by landfall in about 10 hours.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 22, 2023 8:10 pm

We have friends in Beaufort it's disheartening to hear they are the bullseye..good luck everyone tom..fingers crossed...we are wheels up on 2 min
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Post by billg315 Fri Sep 22, 2023 9:00 pm

Latest radar.
Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia Img_2711
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Post by aiannone Fri Sep 22, 2023 10:39 pm

gusting to about 15mph here on the north shore of LI. Let's see what comes in tomorrow.

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Post by billg315 Fri Sep 22, 2023 10:42 pm

aiannone wrote:gusting to about 15mph here on the north shore of LI. Let's see what comes in tomorrow.
Wind reports to our south, even far from storm center, are pretty impressive, so I think we’ll get some good wind gusts from this, especially right on the shore lines.
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Post by amugs Fri Sep 22, 2023 10:45 pm

Dry air on its eastern Flank, IF can fight this off it can intensify. Let's see what the track holds and how far N it can get.

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Post by aiannone Fri Sep 22, 2023 10:51 pm

billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:gusting to about 15mph here on the north shore of LI. Let's see what comes in tomorrow.
Wind reports to our south, even far from storm center, are pretty impressive, so I think we’ll get some good wind gusts from this, especially right on the shore lines.

Yupp current dry air being injected might kill some of the heaviest rain but the wind field should continue to expand.

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Post by billg315 Sat Sep 23, 2023 2:22 am

2 am Advisory largely unchanged. Current winds 70 mph with a pressure of 984 mb, moving NNW at about 12. Probably won’t strengthen much between now and landfall, but Hurricane Watch remains for NC as it wouldn’t take much to reach 74 mph and we’re still about 3 hours from landfall.
The slow progression forecast for Ophelia is interesting. Latest forecast cone only has the center of the storm reaching NJ by early Monday. That is a crawl. If we got heavy rain throughout that would be a lot of rain, but as Scott pointed out, there is likely a long lull in this between this evening and Sunday morning. That should suppress the rain totals.
However, if that thing keeps spinning onshore winds at the Jersey shore from now until Monday . . that’s a lot of potential beach erosion and coastal flooding.
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Post by billg315 Sat Sep 23, 2023 2:25 am

Current radar. Heavy band just now reaching Cape May.
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Post by Frozen.9 Sat Sep 23, 2023 4:31 am

just starting to rain now 4:30am 6 miles south/west of Giants/Jets stadium.

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