Re: Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia

by **billg315** Sat Sep 23, 2023 3:25 am

Current radar. Heavy band just now reaching Cape May.

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by Frozen.9 Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:31 am

just starting to rain now 4:30am 6 miles south/west of Giants/Jets stadium.

by **docstox12** Sat Sep 23, 2023 7:11 am

53 degrees, calm winds, rain about to move in.

by **sroc4** Sat Sep 23, 2023 8:16 am

Looks like we made our landfall just about over Emerald Isle and Swansboro. Landfall between 5:30-6:00am.

Current conditions out here in WR are 59* gusty. About 15-20mph

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by **dsix85** Sat Sep 23, 2023 8:18 am

Sroc- outside of it being a little squally here in Manorville it hasn’t been all that impressive. After this initial batch pushes through it appears we get a lull late morning.

by **billg315** Sat Sep 23, 2023 8:45 am

55* Cloudy NE wind 12 mph and slightly gusty, nothing too bad yet on the wind front. Looks live the first heavy rain band of the morning here is about to move through my area shortly based on current radar. We’ll see how long it lasts before it breaks. Also may see radar fill-in at points this morning.

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by **Radz** Sat Sep 23, 2023 8:50 am

56* raw light rain winds 5-10mph from the NE

by **billg315** Sat Sep 23, 2023 8:50 am

Down at the SNJ Shore, where I’d normally be at this weekend but for some work issues, Rain, NE Wind 17 mph, Gusts 30 mph with a very heavy band about to move in around 8:30.

by **sroc4** Sat Sep 23, 2023 9:06 am

dsix85 wrote:Sroc- outside of it being a little squally here in Manorville it hasn’t been all that impressive. After this initial batch pushes through it appears we get a lull late morning.

We shall see Dsix. Obv we have this line pushing north but there is a deep tropical/subtropical moisture connection. It would not surprise me to see this fill in some and persist for some time throughout much of the day. That said if you look below at the satellite image below in addition to moisture feed from the subtropics there is also the west to east component outlined too.

As was mentioned in prev discussions the main system, Ophelia, is becoming a separate entity to deal with over the next couple days as it conts the slow track north, but most of today for us and most of this board is via the wave of positive vorticity advection(PVA). Just how far north this makes it, and how long does it sit over the region before the trough over Canada presses down and links with this upper level west to east component. As the PVA enters into the west to east flow it will be sheared out by this “jet wash” for a lack of a better term. This is what I believe leads to the “lull” for our area later today or tonight as the vertical forcing comes to a halt once the PVA gets sheared. This factor is what still makes me think there could be a very sharp cutoff on rain totals somewhere over New England. The boom or bust cliche comes to mind like during snowstorms. At least for round one.

That said as you shift geographically to areas like central Nj on S&W you are more likely to get direct bands from Ophelia persist etc. overall it’s a complex set up, although when is it not lol. Interesting weekend of weather for sure.

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by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Sep 23, 2023 9:18 am

sroc4 wrote:Looks like we made our landfall just about over Emerald Isle and Swansboro. Landfall between 5:30-6:00am.

Current conditions out here in WR are 59* gusty. About 15-20mph

Wow so sad swansboro floods in a normal rainstorm ..

by **billg315** Sat Sep 23, 2023 10:20 am

Moderate Rain here. I’d describe it as breezy but no excessive wind at this point. Important to note, and to Scott’s point above, bands of heavy rain are generating over the ocean, so that first precipitation shield a lot of us are getting rain from now is likely not the last. The bands of storms circled in red just below are just blossoming/forming now and heading to shore. That kind of thing may continue through the day.

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by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 23, 2023 10:27 am

Really calm out still lounge in bed but can hear cars and its wet but 0 wind to report. Though i am blicked by a building but at best its breezy. No heavy rains yet. I saw in earlier post i was in a dry slot glad this isnt snow lol

by **rb924119** Sat Sep 23, 2023 10:28 am

Windier than heck here this morning on LBI. Gusts to and even over 50, but the rain has been lackluster so far.

by kalleg Sat Sep 23, 2023 10:37 am

Steady downpour in New Hope, starting to pool on low points on my lawn, intermittent gusts...

by **GreyBeard** Sat Sep 23, 2023 11:03 am

60° light winds and light rain. Looking at current radar, looks like center of storm is almost in central North Carolina and heading in a west/northwest direction. Precipitation looks ragged, especially on it's eastern flank. Hasn't lived up to the hype and doesn't look like it will.

by **billg315** Sat Sep 23, 2023 11:04 am

Moderate to heavy rain continuing here. Just in the last few minutes getting the first real noticeable wind gusts blowing the rain against the windows. Pretty nasty out.

I think we'll see this off and on through the day and as Scott says, a bit of a break this evening and tonight before round 2 tomorrow.

by **billg315** Sat Sep 23, 2023 11:19 am

Ophelia is presently centered just southeast of Greenville NC, about 40 miles from the NC coast. As of last update moving due north at 12 mph. Winds 60 mph, central pressure 983 mb. Next NHC update scheduled for 11 a.m. so we'll see where she's headed from there. Current cone brings it northwest before curving north.

by **billg315** Sat Sep 23, 2023 11:26 am

Wondering if the cone will shift a bit as the storm center is headed north per observations, but current forecast cone projected it to move northwest before turning north.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 23, 2023 11:41 am

billg315 wrote:Wondering if the cone will shift a bit as the storm center is headed north per observations, but current forecast cone projected it to move northwest before turning north.

Smart minds think alike, it has already started its north track and well before the cone has her turning, this would put her on the far eastern side of the cone, and FYI 8am, winds were 65mph, not much weakening.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 23, 2023 11:44 am

Weird the wind percentage map has not updated since earlier last night, still has center over water.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 23, 2023 11:48 am

rb924119 wrote:Windier than heck here this morning on LBI. Gusts to and even over 50, but the rain has been lackluster so far.

Can you explain where the wind is coming from because the windfield is not even close to there yet. Is there a pressure gradiant being formed between ophelia and up here? Non-event up here so far just some drizzle, no wind. it is whatever but im bummed I do not get to do anything outside this weekend.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 23, 2023 11:55 am

Bill we were right big shift in cone goes north to NNE then almost east just south of LI as a depression on Mon, that could change up rain amouts and maybe where wind impacts are felt, but weakening fast 50mph storm now.

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Sep 23, 2023 11:57 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Windier than heck here this morning on LBI. Gusts to and even over 50, but the rain has been lackluster so far.
Can you explain where the wind is coming from because the windfield is not even close to there yet. Is there a pressure gradiant being formed between ophelia and up here? Non-event up here so far just some drizzle, no wind. it is whatever but im bummed I do not get to do anything outside this weekend.

It looks like NYC will get the winds from Ophelia a little later, I think the earlier winds were from the pressure gradient of a H out in the Atlantic

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-jersey/wind-flow

by **billg315** Sat Sep 23, 2023 12:07 pm

NHC 11 am update 50 mph winds, and continuing to move due north at 13 mph. As noted, the forecast cone has indeed shifted and now takes the storm due north to eastern VA.

by **amugs** Sat Sep 23, 2023 12:16 pm

billg315 wrote:NHC 11 am update 50 mph winds, and continuing to move due north at 13 mph. As noted, the forecast cone has indeed shifted and now takes the storm due north to eastern VA.

New Cone. furhter North that yesterday for sure by a good 75 miles
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by **sroc4** Sat Sep 23, 2023 12:54 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Windier than heck here this morning on LBI. Gusts to and even over 50, but the rain has been lackluster so far.
Can you explain where the wind is coming from because the windfield is not even close to there yet. Is there a pressure gradiant being formed between ophelia and up here? Non-event up here so far just some drizzle, no wind. it is whatever but im bummed I do not get to do anything outside this weekend.

There is zero friction for the winds coming in off the water Jon. And yes the gradient is def playing a role.

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Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia - Page 2 Pmsl

by **sroc4** Sat Sep 23, 2023 1:00 pm

amugs wrote:
billg315 wrote:NHC 11 am update 50 mph winds, and continuing to move due north at 13 mph. As noted, the forecast cone has indeed shifted and now takes the storm due north to eastern VA.

New Cone. furhter North that yesterday for sure by a good 75 miles

Probably more than that. Yesterday the 8am update had the system still well offshore as of 2am this am, whereas, landfall was between 5:30-6am this am. And the 11am position in thee image you posted shows it well north of where yesterdays update had it by 2pm today

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