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Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia

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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 23, 2023 11:54 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Windier than heck here this morning on LBI. Gusts to and even over 50, but the rain has been lackluster so far.
Can you explain where the wind is coming from because the windfield is not even close to there yet. Is there a pressure gradiant being formed between ophelia and up here? Non-event up here so far just some drizzle, no wind. it is whatever but im bummed I do not get to do anything outside this weekend.

There is zero friction for the winds coming in off the water Jon.  And yes the gradient is def playing a role.  

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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 23, 2023 12:00 pm

amugs wrote:
billg315 wrote:NHC 11 am update 50 mph winds, and continuing to move due north at 13 mph. As noted, the forecast cone has indeed shifted and now takes the storm due north to eastern VA.

New Cone. furhter North that yesterday for sure by a good 75 miles
Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia - Page 3 145104_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Probably more than that.  Yesterday the 8am update had the system still well offshore as of 2am this am, whereas, landfall was between 5:30-6am this am.   And the 11am position in thee image you posted shows it well north of where yesterdays update had it by 2pm today

Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia - Page 3 Ophile11


Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Sep 23, 2023 12:08 pm; edited 3 times in total

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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 23, 2023 12:04 pm

Two biggest things with the track were the shift west and faster over the past couple of days. 11am update Sept 21st-23rd

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by amugs Sat Sep 23, 2023 12:08 pm

This is for tomorrow. If it verifies, CMC may have nailed the rainfall totals.

Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia - Page 3 Image_29

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Sep 23, 2023 12:14 pm

amugs wrote:This is for tomorrow.  If it verifies,  CMC may have nailed the rainfall totals.

Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia - Page 3 Image_29

yeah, not much of an event for us here today, just some nuisance rain. Tomorrow looks to be the gully washers. Off to watch college football and not worry about today.

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Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
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Post by billg315 Sat Sep 23, 2023 12:24 pm

Steady Rain here, off and on in intensity as bands work through. NE wind of 15 mph and I’m well inland. I checked the obs from the shore town in Cape May County where I spend most weekends: sustained 31 mph NE winds with much higher gusts. Nasty.
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Post by billg315 Sat Sep 23, 2023 12:56 pm

This band moving through my town is producing some heavy rain here, but most notable is it has some of the strongest wind gusts I’ve seen so far today. Blustery.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 23, 2023 1:05 pm

billg315 wrote:This band moving through my town is producing some heavy rain here, but most notable is it has some of the strongest wind gusts I’ve seen so far today. Blustery.
Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia - Page 3 Img_2715
heavier rain amd winds slowly picking up here a bit. Nothomg to write home sbout. I hate do errands in the rain.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 23, 2023 1:09 pm

Just gusted to 55mph a little while ago. The house was a-rockin’ with that one, but not because of Stevie Ray Vaughan lol

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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 23, 2023 1:18 pm

We have some stronger cells approaching from offshore, so I’m thinking we may crack the 60mph mark with those. But we will see!

Not nearly as much rain as expected here overall so far, though. Definitely another bust on my part with the track, no question, but I did pretty well with the intensity. I thought the Mississippi River Valley ridge would have been a bit stronger and forced the whole progression further east, but I think what happened was the Atlantic ridge ended up being the one that trended stronger relative to the other. Admittedly, I thought about that, but I didn’t think it was far enough west to be influenced by the drivers that I analyzed. I’m also guilty of not following up on the evolution of forecasts, so that doesn’t help. I need to focus better, plain and simple.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 23, 2023 1:23 pm

rb924119 wrote:We have some stronger cells approaching from offshore, so I’m thinking we may crack the 60mph mark with those. But we will see!

Not nearly as much rain as expected here overall so far, though. Definitely another bust on my part with the track, no question, but I did pretty well with the intensity. I thought the Mississippi River Valley ridge would have been a bit stronger and forced the whole progression further east, but I think what happened was the Atlantic ridge ended up being the one that trended stronger relative to the other. Admittedly, I thought about that, but I didn’t think it was far enough west to be influenced by the drivers that I analyzed. I’m also guilty of not following up on the evolution of forecasts, so that doesn’t help. I need to focus better, plain and simple.
lucky i wanna see that especially at shore. I had my expectations tempered the entire time but u did well. Nothing can ever go exactly right especially wothese. Now question is how weak does he get? Do at least 35mph sustained get into my area as a depression? I doubt he stays a ts far enough north. If i go to say portchester beach in the sound might i see some coadtal impacts or not really? We been hetting squally bands where it rains hard and winds pick up but then dies out and is calm with no rain in between.
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Post by billg315 Sat Sep 23, 2023 1:55 pm

Actually doing about as expected on rainfall here (central/NW NJ). Already approaching .70" with more heavy bands to come this afternoon and the second round of rain tomorrow. I'm pretty confident we'll be close to or above 2" by tomorrow afternoon. Winds have been less impressive than I expected. Not sure if that will change tomorrow as the circulation center approaches (my guess would be that would be the case as strongest winds are near the storm center), but today's winds have been very mild (comparatively -- I mean if this were a snowstorm and I had 15-20 mph winds with 30 mph-plus gusts, I'd be looking at a lot of blowing snow. Just doesn't look as impressive with plain rain. lol).
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Post by billg315 Sat Sep 23, 2023 2:09 pm

Pouring rain here. Some of the heaviest of the day. Great day to be a duck. If only it were snow . . .
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 23, 2023 4:00 pm

I have to say she still looks impressive over land, if i were just looking id think she was a strong TS or hurricane, the infrared is much different though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=16L&product=vis
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 23, 2023 4:18 pm

Some pretty heavy rain over NYC far North eastern NJ, southern westchester county and fairfield county NY, coming off ocean and is kinda training.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 23, 2023 4:37 pm

Interesting, intensity model has her regaining TS strength once back over the water, but likely well past the area (72 hrs from now she will be absorbed by the front assuming track is correct.. Wonder if this will actually happen. One gets her up to 50 kts. Very few have her completely degrading below a 35mph depression, I think tomorrow may be the windiest day with her closest approach to the area, NYC area that is.

Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia - Page 3 16l_in10

5pm 40mph storm, cone shifted north more for a exit off coast NJ and as far north as just off queens coast, NYC area and NJ now in 10-20% or 20-30% chance of TS force winds, as I said I think tonight and tomorrow are the windiest for NJ and NYC/LI (albeit now very high but enough to possibly cause some localized downed branches).
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Post by billg315 Sat Sep 23, 2023 6:49 pm

Interested to see if we have some localized flooding issues tomorrow. Plenty of rain today with round one and the ground is saturated to the max, as are rivers and streams. Round two tomorrow could still pack a punch with rainfall, and there isn’t really anywhere for the excess water to go. As you see below #1 was todays rain, but #2 is tomorrow’s round.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Sep 23, 2023 6:56 pm

.91" here today, had steadier rain late this afternoon to make up for the slow start. Not much wind to speak of. So far no issues with waterways, they are elevated but should drain off a bit before the next round.

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Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
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Post by amugs Sat Sep 23, 2023 7:00 pm

Holy Mother of Rain and flooding. Please be wrong .

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 23, 2023 7:08 pm

amugs wrote:Holy Mother of Rain and flooding. Please be wrong .

Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia - Page 3 F6vif010
Is that including today or just tomorrow? Yikes 5.3 bullsyeye over me, ya we cannot handle that especially if its in a fairly short amount of time. Do you think with the passage of the depression we might see some winds tonorrow or is that threat over? We never really saw any wind here just slightly breezy.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Sep 23, 2023 7:15 pm

Per Upton, from 2 pm today through 8 pm Monday, hope goofus is wrong

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Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
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Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 23, 2023 7:16 pm

And the majority of that rain comes at monday morning rush. Fun, but it's really over the course of 3 days so shouldn't case much flooding.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Sep 23, 2023 7:30 pm

WPC on the lower end too, hope the goofus is an outlier!

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 23, 2023 9:03 pm

Absolutely ripping here again with these feeder bands. Gusting over 50mph again. Town of Beach Haven was under water today, but I stayed dry, luckily. Highest gust I saw here today was 64mph this morning at about 5:30am.

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Post by amugs Sat Sep 23, 2023 11:04 pm

Wildwood this afternoon


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Post by docstox12 Sun Sep 24, 2023 8:29 am

54 degrees, light rain, breezy.Overall, not bad at all up here.Yesterday was able to drive around with moderate rain and breezy conditions.Most noticeable thing is the Fall like temps, very cool.rb is getting the brunt of this at the shore, but well inland up here, nothing bad.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Sep 24, 2023 11:51 am

Goofus was really wrong, dry out almost hasn't rained since last night, the goofus wasn't just wrong it was really wrong. Sun even tried to come out of a bit, is there still goin gotb e a round 2 or is it go be nice from here on out?
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