NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

January 2024 Observations and Discussion

+55
mmanisca
Abba701
Aiosamoney21
vascudave
larryrock72
crippo84
Brookster
Fededle22
2004blackwrx
Koroptim
uanswer2me
silentwreck
snowday111
bloc1357
JT33
Angela0621
DAYBLAZER
jurzdevil
DWay
skinsfan1177
Math23x7
hyde345
Irish
richb521
CPcantmeasuresnow
tomsriversnowstorm
SkiSeadooJoe
Grselig
brownie
Snowprincess0204
NJBear
dkodgis
weatherwatchermom
kalleg
frank 638
Frank_Wx
toople
Dunnzoo
Frozen.9
Carvin
MattyICE
SENJsnowman
phil155
dsix85
essexcountypete
docstox12
billg315
jmanley32
nutleyblizzard
aiannone
amugs
rb924119
1190ftalt
sroc4
heehaw453
59 posters

Page 3 of 26 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 14 ... 26  Next

Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 02, 2024 3:18 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:All the models today 12Z are showing very little if any n/s interaction. Of course tomorrow is another story but you'd want to see that trend stop and reverse course tomorrow. This won't be be a Godzilla for anyone IMO unless we get that phasing at the right time. Can still be a nice event for NW I95 though. Hell I'd take 3-6" right now sign on the dotted line.

I dont think this is an interaction with the n/s issue.  This is a southern system that comes into a cold antecedent air mass.  Question is how consolidated is the enrgy at our latitude.  Biggest solns showed a closed low and strong vort.  Latest trends on euro have been to not have as consolidated energy.  That's a problem.

12z yesterday 00z then 12z today

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1704585600-DTOjdQ2JWG4
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1704585600-zjhCoxkNlac
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1704585600-mDmyiFLi6Kk

It's subtle but I believe it does make a significant difference in how the storm consolidates and rapidly deepens also it's reinforcing colder air at the mid levels.

northern stream
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Euro511
no northern stream shown
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Euro512

But what your showing is a 250mb wind map. You have to zoom out a little to see the northern jet. Normally you find the greatest verticle forcing in the Right rear or left front quadrants of a jet streak. Thats where pressures will tend to want to drop the fastest. The biggest difference I see from yest 12z to todays 12z on the euro is today the Northern branch is further north and much weaker. The low is centered poorly to have any help from the southen branch jet streak as modeled. In addition at 500mb like the vort maps indicate the vorticity is way more sporead out; less reds that the prev two runs.

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Ecmwf174
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Ecmwf175

sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8322
Join date : 2013-01-07

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 02, 2024 3:20 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Tracks have not been our problem for the most part with storms this season. And I don't think this one will either per se. But it will need to deepen some how some way.

More consolidated vorticity at 500 and or better positioned and stronger jet streak

sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8322
Join date : 2013-01-07

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 02, 2024 3:35 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:All the models today 12Z are showing very little if any n/s interaction. Of course tomorrow is another story but you'd want to see that trend stop and reverse course tomorrow. This won't be be a Godzilla for anyone IMO unless we get that phasing at the right time. Can still be a nice event for NW I95 though. Hell I'd take 3-6" right now sign on the dotted line.

I dont think this is an interaction with the n/s issue.  This is a southern system that comes into a cold antecedent air mass.  Question is how consolidated is the enrgy at our latitude.  Biggest solns showed a closed low and strong vort.  Latest trends on euro have been to not have as consolidated energy.  That's a problem.

12z yesterday 00z then 12z today

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1704585600-DTOjdQ2JWG4
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1704585600-zjhCoxkNlac
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1704585600-mDmyiFLi6Kk

It's subtle but I believe it does make a significant difference in how the storm consolidates and rapidly deepens also it's reinforcing colder air at the mid levels.

northern stream
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Euro511
no northern stream shown
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Euro512

But what your showing is a 250mb wind map.  You have to zoom out a little to see the northern jet.   Normally you find the greatest verticle forcing in the Right rear or left front quadrants of a jet streak.  Thats where pressures will tend to want to drop the fastest.  The biggest difference I see from yest 12z to todays 12z on the euro is today the Northern branch is further north and much weaker.  The low is centered poorly to have any help from the southen branch jet streak as modeled.  In addition at 500mb like the vort maps indicate the vorticity is way more sporead out; less reds that the prev two runs.  

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Ecmwf174
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Ecmwf175

OK. I like your assessment too. But I still think the n/s has to get involved more for a bigger potential. I don't think southern stream alone is enough as you will have better cold air supply with the n/s and a kicker to create more spin.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by SENJsnowman Tue Jan 02, 2024 4:31 pm

Interesting map posted by NorEasterNick. And he also fully expects the storm track to inch more eastward, just not by enough to save the Shore on this one. We’re tough and resilient at the Shore, and plenty used to getting bypassed. So, if this the final outcome- we will be ready to track the next one…for sure!

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_2610

This map depicts the chances by % of accumulating at least one inch of snow this weekend.

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1182
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 50
Location : Bayville, NJ

docstox12, amugs, kalleg, essexcountypete and heehaw453 like this post

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 02, 2024 4:51 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Interesting map posted by NorEasterNick. And he also fully expects the storm track to inch more eastward, just not by enough to save the Shore on this one. We’re tough and resilient at the Shore, and plenty used to getting bypassed. So, if this the final outcome- we will be ready to track the next one…for sure!

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_2610

This map depicts the chances by % of accumulating at least one inch of snow this weekend.

I feel even in your area you can see at least an inch of snow. It's not the track per se that is the issue. It's the lack of a deepening storm that is more so the problem.

This mid level track is money. But it's not consolidating fast enough. There's a myriad of reason as to why that is IMO, but that is the bottom line until it changes tomorrow   January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 1f600

Today weaker storm further east
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Track10
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 850tem10

Yesterday strong storm tucked
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Tracky10
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 850tem11

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 02, 2024 4:58 pm

And I just realized senj was speaking track as monitor, not track of this storm. sorry senj...

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3887
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

SENJsnowman likes this post

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:04 pm

18z GFS does not have a significant primary out west, as RB was saying the GFS was at one point and it was maybe wrong.

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

heehaw453 likes this post

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:20 pm

aiannone wrote:18z GFS does not have a significant primary out west, as RB was saying the GFS was at one point and it was maybe wrong.
So this bodes well or not for a storm? The primary meaning the energy we want to see maintain strength or is that a different piece? I honestly am not that enthused about this storm, something tells me if anything this will be a interior event like I-287 and north in NY. Rest of us rain, we will see, not getting good vibes though after todays runs and the troubles seen potentially by Bernie and those on here. If that energy weakens we are toast, at least some of us and those that do will get little.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20470
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:22 pm

Wow 18z has a narrow swath of heavy snow that has a sharp cut off and screws LI and CT, but even NYC sees 3-6+, and JUST N/W 8-10 and then quickly to 0 further N/W you go how is that possible that further east sees so little does it die out, or it drops SE? Big swings in models as is expected.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20470
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:18z GFS does not have a significant primary out west, as RB was saying the GFS was at one point and it was maybe wrong.
So this bodes well or not for a storm? The primary meaning the energy we want to see maintain strength or is that a different piece? I honestly am not that enthused about this storm, something tells me if anything this will be an interior event like I-287 and north in NY. Rest of us rain, we will see, not getting good vibes though after todays runs and the troubles seen potentially by Bernie and those on here.  If that energy weakens we are toast, at least some of us and those that do will get little.

Yes, it bodes well. The primary is the low that initially tracks west of the Appalachians, and then transfers to the coast. The longer the primary hangs on, the warmer the overall storm will be for us, as more warm air can be drawn northward before the coastal low takes over.

As for the rest of your post, I’m going to take my own advice and holdddddddddd before accepting this idea of a weaker wave. Now, that is NOT to be mistaken for me denying that most recent runs do indicate a weaker conglomeration of energy. Because I’m not lol but, at this time* I do not think that it’s correct. Fundamentally, there is not much difference between this afternoon’s runs and last night’s/yesterday’s through the time when our energy is approaching/at the Continental Divide. The difference comes AFTER this, with latest runs de-amplifying the wave. This doesn’t make physical sense. When that energy emerges on the eastern side of the mountains, it should actually intensify some via vortex tube stretching. What is vortex tube stretching? Think of a column of air being advected over the mountains. It’s forced up and over, and as that column rises, it cools and contracts. As it emerges on the eastern side of the mountains and downslopes, that column starts expanding downward. As it stretches, due to conservation of mass (and momentum), the radius of that column has to shrink. What happens when a rotating circle shrinks? Its rotational velocity increases, just like an ice skater when he/she goes from extended arms to tucked arms.

Let’s give this some time before everybody jumps off the proverbial cliff, because this doesn’t make sense to me.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

jmanley32 and heehaw453 like this post

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:53 pm

Now, I also understand that our wave will be de-amplifying due to the ambient environment. You have a broadening trough axis thanks to secondary energy coming onshore in the West, compounded by the fact that it’s approaching a ridge axis, which works against cyclonic development/maintenance. However, at least conceptually, I would think that the vortex tube stretching should offset this for a while, as it gives it a stronger starting point. Let’s see what happens, folks.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by MattyICE Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:03 pm

Even if that trend IS true, it would certainly lower the potential ceiling but could still be a solid snowfall for many, WAA style, no?

MattyICE
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 249
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2017-11-10
Age : 38
Location : Clifton, NJ (Eastern Passaic County)

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:37 pm

MattyICE wrote:Even if that trend IS true, it would certainly lower the potential ceiling but could still be a solid snowfall for many, WAA style, no?

Correct.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

jmanley32 and MattyICE like this post

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:21 pm

Recon flights scheduled for Thursday and Friday

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Gc32cz10

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15074
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by dsix85 Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:36 pm

That’s kind of a big deal, no?

dsix85
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 349
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2014-01-01
Location : New York

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:42 pm

Thanks rb, and ya I would say recon mission means they want to sample a possibly sig storm. They did so with the big storm on the 18th in the GOM and it wasn't scheduled. So ya I would say something is up. It is def not cheap to send those out.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20470
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:07 pm

It’s almost like the models have been focusing on the wrong wave and are now realizing that “oh crap, I was expecting a right, but ya hit me with a left”. I wonder if we see the second piece of energy that trails what we *think* is the main event actually become the main event. Not saying I necessarily see this happening, but it is a possible option that these recent shifts bring into the mix, especially if they continue.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:12 pm

Like I said, I’m letting this ride for right now. Very intriguing situation.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:22 pm

EPS low locations took a significant shift back SE on 18z compared to 12z

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8322
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:28 pm

sroc4 wrote:EPS low locations took a significant shift back SE on 18z compared to 12z

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_7312
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_7313
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Screen10
 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Screen11


Hopefully it’s not a blip

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8322
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:52 pm

FWIW 00z GFS looks better to me through 54. We’ll see what happens.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

MattyICE likes this post

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:58 pm

This should be a colder run/further southeast.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

MattyICE likes this post

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:59 pm

I’m up watching with ya ray. Should be asleep but couldn’t resist lol

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:01 pm

Man, that energy just falls apart so fast, though. Just flattens out into nothing but warm advection snow. If that’s real, this thing is no more than a 4-8” event. Sad, considering where it would have started.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:02 pm

Well that was disappointing. Lol

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:05 pm

aiannone wrote:Well that was disappointing. Lol

Look at the GEM if you’re depressed, it should help Wink

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:05 pm

We hug the Canadian lol

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Img_6710

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Empty Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 26 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 14 ... 26  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum