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January 2024 Observations and Discussion

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:05 pm

aiannone wrote:Well that was disappointing. Lol

Look at the GEM if you’re depressed, it should help Wink

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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:05 pm

We hug the Canadian lol

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Img_6710

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:06 pm

So the weakening energy like Bernie said may be very feasible (thoug he was going with it not, and so are you i believe), will be interesting to see what recon finds and when it is over land. Not losing complete hope but def not enthused.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:07 pm

That’s actually a perfect example of my preliminary forecast……literally verbatim.


Last edited by rb924119 on Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:07 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:07 pm

aiannone wrote:We hug the Canadian lol

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Img_6710
LOL what step is that in the program? That is beautiful nice band over the majority of the area, classic.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:10 pm

This is 10:1:

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Img_1942

There’s my 12-18”/14-20” centered on I-95 Smile and that’s without accounting for the actual ratios, which will be higher.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:11 pm

rb924119 wrote:This is 10:1:

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Img_1942

There’s my 12-18”/14-20” centered on I-95 Smile and that’s without accounting for the actual ratios, which will be higher.
Why does the heaviest swatch abruptly cut off at NYC, literally is scathing the bronx and Yonkers with 10 or 12 lol, don't get me wrong sign me up. This is also a perfect depiction of CP's worst outcome he posted in banter lol
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:18 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:This is 10:1:

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Img_1942

There’s my 12-18”/14-20” centered on I-95 Smile and that’s without accounting for the actual ratios, which will be higher.
Why does the heaviest swatch abruptly cut off at NYC, literally is scathing the bronx and Yonkers with 10 or 12 lol, don't get me wrong sign me up. This is also  a perfect depiction of CP's worst outcome he posted in banter lol

Because you’re stretching the best dynamics out. When the storm is approaching, the best dynamics are maturing/overlapped, but once it runs into the block and has to start sliding east-southeast, it stretches out, and forcings become diluted.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:01 am

NOBODY POSTED THE EURO?!!!! I don’t believe it. I’m disappointed in you all. It looked just like GEM!!

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:13 am

OR THE UKMET?!! Yeesh, it’s hard to find good help nowadays lol

So, basically, it’s the Euro/GEM with big ticket storms, which have also been the most steadfast, then you have the ICON/UKMET which decided to jump on board for the 00z/06z cycles, and then the GFS/NAM which are not enthused with this storm.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:55 am

Bring this one home Rb!

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:03 am

Big difference I see on the 00Z euro is Upper air flow is compressed better. N/S really pressing down on S/S I think allowing for better consolidated energy. Also think there is room for better consolidation earlier.

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:06 am

So we’ve reached the point 3-4 days out where the models that had everyone on the ledge yesterday, swing back to having everyone enthusiastic this morning. Lol. This is why I advised yesterday to relax and stop riding each model run. Until this thing is inside of 24-48 hours nobody is going to know exactly what to expect… if then. I personally love the potential of this storm. But realize a wide array of possible outcomes are on the table at this stage.
It’s like sports: the fun is in the uncertainty folks.
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Post by Carvin Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:16 am

Sometimes you gotta smell the rain to get big snows on the coast speaking on jersey long island and nyc

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:57 am

billg315 wrote:So we’ve reached the point 3-4 days out where the models that had everyone on the ledge yesterday, swing back to having everyone enthusiastic this morning. Lol. This is why I advised yesterday to relax and stop riding each model run. Until this thing is inside of 24-48 hours nobody is going to know exactly what to expect… if then. I personally love the potential of this storm. But realize a wide array of possible outcomes are on the table at this stage.
It’s like sports: the fun is in the uncertainty folks.

EURO =

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2F2VoXrhRb77A7C%2Fgiphy

GFS =

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.pinimg.com%2Foriginals%2Ffa%2F20%2F0d%2Ffa200dce9ff1b4c683a98b27329fb6b1

You're a wiley ol' veteran Bill.  Wiser words could not have been spoken.  GFS still has a sprawling mess of vorticity and doesnt get going until the trailing energy catches up to it.
Euro/CMC consolidate the energy as it hits the coast.  I see two main reasons for this.

1) The center of our 50/50 low is a tad further north compared to euro/cmc.  This slows the lead energy down a tad late on the GFS when compared to the euro/cmc.  GFS gets going but a tad too far east.   
2) Behind the system look at the 500mb interacting between N/s and S/S over the Northern plains.  Which is what Heehaw has been noting

Bottom line is the energy that is this system is just now diving into the SW CONUS.  It all should be onshore by mid day meaning even todays 12z may not be fully sampled.  The slow walk to our soln begins folks.  Remember Im off to Florida in an hour and supposed to fly home Sunday.  This fact along with the -NAO and 50/50 low is a positive that the euro soln is more likely Wink

WE TRACK!!!!! What a Face

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:23 am

Does anyone have euro snow map? I still dont like that gfs is not liking it even if 4 models do. and the nam at this range is no good anyways. Seems like some positive things though.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:37 am

jmanley32 wrote:Does anyone have euro snow map? I still dont like that gfs is not liking it even if 4 models do. and the nam at this range is no good anyways. Seems like some positive things though.

Heres the take on the GFS by pro Met Mike Masco. He reiterates Rb position on this model and its waffling
Using the operational model run from tonight (0Z) and members of the GFS ensembles you see a few distinct things that will impact the surface low Saturday..

1. The shortwave low is strung out as energy is pulled back to Texas
2. There is feedback issues showing on the GFS by Sunday morning keeping the low and precip strung out and forcing the precip out fast

My thinking is this is all overstated and underestimated by the GFS and a bit of a normal GFS bias we'd see at this time frame.
Usualy GFS shaninigans.

Here is your GFS - paltry snow map

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 GC48FXyXgAAU1CY?format=png&name=900x900


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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:41 am

jmanley32 wrote:Does anyone have euro snow map? I still dont like that gfs is not liking it even if 4 models do. and the nam at this range is no good anyways. Seems like some positive things though.

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 GC6nra9XAAALoJl?format=jpg&name=900x900

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:42 am

0Z model run breakdown

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 GC6xgxyXsAA8KaS?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:32 am

For those N/W of I95 I believe the WAA (warm air advection) snows will come in Saturday afternoon/evening and those can produce several inches. The set up for such snow is decent as the thickness lines should promote decent snow growth coupled with a decent air mass. Rb has been saying that too. So what I'm saying is (N) and EPA/NW NJ/LHV I think at least 4" is very conservative and there is a potential for at least double that.

The wild card comes into play on the I95 coastal plain (including NYC/LI) and Monmouth Cty NJ. How much of the WAA can they cash in on and how does this storm consolidate to drag colder air in and create good rates? I think a lot of that depends on the n/s compressing the flow and promoting quick consolidation. As sroc said the 50/50 and the -NAO promotes a good setup.

I will say this the AO/NAO values heading into Saturday are very ripe for a nice event for the I95. The PNA will approach -1 sigma and that's not too bad as it's coming from positive territory.

Let's see.

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:55 am

Here is the path that isn't changing with this - again a wiggle 10-20 miles on either side but that is about it I'd say. The strength of the storm is to be detemined for sure.

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 GC7BSB8W4AAEQzU?format=jpg&name=medium


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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:38 am

12z NAM looks better to me through 66. We’ll see…..

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:41 am

6z EURO ENS TOP
0Z Bottom

A tad strong and snowier

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 GC7KHc9XkAAVTuE?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:46 am

NAM - HP in Quebec stronger and cofluence is stronger - more cold air can bleed in and a deeper layer of cold air (CAD)

 January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Nam_we10



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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:47 am

NAM not enthused still.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:55 am

rb924119 wrote:NAM not enthused still.

Through 48 Nam is def better. Beyond that Nam is out of range anyway.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:59 am

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:NAM not enthused still.

Through 48 Nam is def better. Beyond that Nam is out of range anyway.

True, and it has been off its game lately. But if we could get it in our camp I’d feel better because it has a knack for sniffing out bigger events. I’d certainly trade it for the GFS though, even if it’s been sub-par lol

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