Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

[aiannone]

12z GFS running....

[rb924119]

Here is another RGEM map ray

Yeah, this is the Crapola ratios. I can understand why this would be different lol but not the two 10:1 maps haha

[jmanley32]

NWS going with...

They just tweeted their first official snowmap for the storm wont be released until this afternoon

What is this then? Looks like their regular snow map. Hopefully we can get those higher totals down to nyc, if not then at least into southern westchester and NE NJ, not sure how LI will fare even with a shift SE.

[amugs]

12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.[/


RB any idea when we would be getting the Recon sampling?

I think mugsy said they’ll be going out for tonight’s 00z runs, and then again tomorrow…?

Yes that what was posted yestereday that they were going out today on the West Coast and it should be fully ingested into models by 0Z tonight and again tomorrow in the Gulf region

[docstox12]

Heavy snow Saturday night for my area, total of 4 to 8 ATM.Hope mugs and rb can work on the midweek storm next week as it is all rain here and in the 40's.Need to have a snowpack for more than 72 hours for a change.

[aiannone]

12z GFS maybe confluence a little stronger than 6z from early looks?

[rb924119]

Thanks for confirming the recon intel, mugs!

[rb924119]

Paging heehaw lol

[rb924119]

GFS actually doesn’t look too bad to me at first glance. It looks better overall than previous runs, with an earlier consolidation/tilting of the lower levels. Again, this will aid with wrap-around snow.

[rb924119]

GFS actually doesn’t look too bad to me at first glance. It looks better overall than previous runs, with an earlier consolidation/tilting of the lower levels. Again, this will aid with wrap-around snow.

BOOM, there it is lol

[rb924119]

GFS actually doesn’t look too bad to me at first glance. It looks better overall than previous runs, with an earlier consolidation/tilting of the lower levels. Again, this will aid with wrap-around snow.

BOOM, there it is lol

[dsix85]

Is this closing off earlier compared to prior runs?

[phil155]

Not looking very good for us in central NJ unless the storm tracks a good bit SE of what it looks like now

[rb924119]

Verbatim that drops >20” on CP’s head haha

[rb924119]

Verbatim that drops >20” on CP’s head haha

[docstox12]

Verbatim that drops >20” on CP’s head haha

CP, whatever you do DO NOT LOOK AT THIS,LOL.

[amugs]

Massive backend CCB on this run - wet pasty snow for most of NNJ and LHV with great mixing over NNJ as well. Need that 850 to close off sooner and energy to consolidate more which it took a step too. Jet streak looked a bit better too.

[jmanley32]

Wow to GFS for northern folks, still no good down here. If happens I hope CP praises the snow gods. But yeah CP like doc said don't look at 12z snow map.

[Frank_Wx]

The GFS goes Godzilla for those N&W of NYC. A very impressive run with dynamics playing a critical role in bombing the storm out and allowing a CCB to sit over our area. Madonne!

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z GFS shows the potential of this storm. As long as all the southern energy consolidates off the coast, we're looking at a Godzilla-like storm across N&W of NYC into New England.

[aiannone]

Well now...

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z CMC looks pretty similar to the 12z GFS. A storm that bombs out JUST as it leaves our latitude.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Verbatim that drops >20” on CP’s head haha

CP, whatever you do DO NOT LOOK AT THIS,LOL.

I always look but never take these seriously from run to run. The weather app has been consistently saying 6-11 for days now. Sounds like a good range.

More or less I'll know for sure when I stick my yardstick into my snowboard. If it gets washed away Tuesday night did it ever really happen?

[rb924119]

Wow to GFS for northern folks, still no good down here. If happens I hope CP praises the snow gods. But yeah CP like doc said don't look at 12z snow map.

Give it time, Jman.

[rb924119]

Well now...

Still think I’m just being optimistic?

[aiannone]

CMC still wants to put a damper on the party

[aiannone]

Well now...

Still think I’m just being optimistic?

Of course not. Your reason is always scientific. However, we need more than just one run of the GFS in our camp.

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