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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:37 am

12z GFS running....

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:38 am

aiannone wrote:Here is another RGEM map ray

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 41500410

Yeah, this is the Crapola ratios. I can understand why this would be different lol but not the two 10:1 maps haha

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:39 am

aiannone wrote:
amugs wrote:NWS going with...

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 GDAUtjCasAAhuNu?format=jpg&name=medium

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 GDAUtiQWQAAoL6M?format=jpg&name=medium

They just tweeted their first official snowmap for the storm wont be released until this afternoon
What is this then? Looks like their regular snow map. Hopefully we can get those higher totals down to nyc, if not then at least into southern westchester and NE NJ, not sure how LI will fare even with a shift SE.
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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by amugs Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:39 am

rb924119 wrote:
Artechmetals wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Ref1km22

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Ref1km23

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Ref1km24

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.[/


RB any idea when we would be getting the Recon sampling?

I think mugsy said they’ll be going out for tonight’s 00z runs, and then again tomorrow…?

Yes that what was posted yestereday that they were going out today on the West Coast and it should be fully ingested into models by 0Z tonight and again tomorrow in the Gulf region

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by docstox12 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:41 am

Heavy snow Saturday night for my area, total of 4 to 8 ATM.Hope mugs and rb can work on the midweek storm next week as it is all rain here and in the 40's.Need to have a snowpack for more than 72 hours for a change.
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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:41 am

12z GFS maybe confluence a little stronger than 6z from early looks?

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:45 am

Thanks for confirming the recon intel, mugs!

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:48 am

Paging heehaw lol

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Img_1951

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:52 am

GFS actually doesn’t look too bad to me at first glance. It looks better overall than previous runs, with an earlier consolidation/tilting of the lower levels. Again, this will aid with wrap-around snow.

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:53 am

rb924119 wrote:GFS actually doesn’t look too bad to me at first glance. It looks better overall than previous runs, with an earlier consolidation/tilting of the lower levels. Again, this will aid with wrap-around snow.

BOOM, there it is lol

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:53 am

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:GFS actually doesn’t look too bad to me at first glance. It looks better overall than previous runs, with an earlier consolidation/tilting of the lower levels. Again, this will aid with wrap-around snow.

BOOM, there it is lol
JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Img_1952

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by dsix85 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:55 am

Is this closing off earlier compared to prior runs?

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by phil155 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:55 am

Not looking very good for us in central NJ unless the storm tracks a good bit SE of what it looks like now Sad

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:55 am

Verbatim that drops >20” on CP’s head haha

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:56 am

rb924119 wrote:Verbatim that drops >20” on CP’s head haha
JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Img_1953

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by docstox12 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:58 am

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Verbatim that drops >20” on CP’s head haha
JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Img_1953

CP, whatever you do DO NOT LOOK AT THIS,LOL.
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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by amugs Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:59 am

Massive backend CCB on this run - wet pasty snow for most of NNJ and LHV with great mixing over NNJ as well. Need that 850 to close off sooner and energy to consolidate more which it took a step too. Jet streak looked a bit better too.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:08 am

Wow to GFS for northern folks, still no good down here. If happens I hope CP praises the snow gods. But yeah CP like doc said don't look at 12z snow map.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:12 am

The GFS goes Godzilla for those N&W of NYC. A very impressive run with dynamics playing a critical role in bombing the storm out and allowing a CCB to sit over our area. Madonne!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:14 am

The 12z GFS shows the potential of this storm. As long as all the southern energy consolidates off the coast, we're looking at a Godzilla-like storm across N&W of NYC into New England.

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:15 am

Well now...
JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Pratep27

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Pratep27

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Sn10_a66

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:16 am

The 12z CMC looks pretty similar to the 12z GFS. A storm that bombs out JUST as it leaves our latitude.

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:16 am

docstox12 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Verbatim that drops >20” on CP’s head haha
JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Img_1953

CP, whatever you do DO NOT LOOK AT THIS,LOL.

I always look but never take these seriously from run to run. The weather app has been consistently saying 6-11 for days now. Sounds like a good range.

More or less I'll know for sure when I stick my yardstick into my snowboard. If it gets washed away Tuesday night did it ever really happen?
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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:16 am

jmanley32 wrote:Wow to GFS for northern folks, still no good down here. If happens I hope CP praises the snow gods. But yeah CP like doc said don't look at 12z snow map.

Give it time, Jman.

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:18 am

aiannone wrote:Well now...
JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Pratep27

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Pratep27

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Sn10_a66

Still think I’m just being optimistic? told ya

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:18 am

CMC still wants to put a damper on the party
JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Sn10_a67

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:19 am

rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Well now...
JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Pratep27

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Pratep27

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 6 Sn10_a66

Still think I’m just being optimistic? told ya

Of course not. Your reason is always scientific. However, we need more than just one run of the GFS in our camp.

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