Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

[amugs]

12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

[jmanley32]

Looks like NAM is ALL SNOW KNYC…..waiting on better maps to confirm.

Did not look like it to me on TT, but its not very hi-res or close up snow map.

Verbatim they are apparently on the line lol my bad, but Jimminy Crickets you’re right freakin’ thereeeeeeeee lol

Also love how it’s extending the precip shield further west even as the low continues to the east-northeast, which is what we should see in this scenario, as discussed earlier in the week.

I know, I hate how razor sharp the cutoff is, literally 9.5 miles to my north it goes from 2-3 to 6+, amazing, i want to see at least a decent amount into the pink on TT to feel safe. Still thinking this may be a nowcast for NYC and my area even if models do show a change for the better, lots of things at play that change during storms as we have seen many times 2 years ago lol

[rb924119]

12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.

[aiannone]

12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.

So i guess the question is... do we still have room to get the lower level circulation to close off earlier?

[rb924119]

12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.

So i guess the question is... do we still have room to get the lower level circulation to close off earlier?

I think so, but even if not, a slight shift further to the east-southeast would do the trick too. Get them together, and NYC is cooking with gas.

[Artechmetals]

[quote="rb924119"]

12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.[/


RB any idea when we would be getting the Recon sampling?

[heehaw453]

The mid-levels are torched as there is too much energy inland causing that southerly flow. That's got to move east. This the NAM at hour 69 so keep that in mind for now.

[jmanley32]

12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.

So i guess the question is... do we still have room to get the lower level circulation to close off earlier?

I think so, but even if not, a slight shift further to the east-southeast would do the trick too. Get them together, and NYC is cooking with gas.

OMG YES! I have never been able to use this now I can!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJRQo5aawho


Real public service anouncement from 1980's. I found it because a DJ I listen to utilizes it as a sample in his mix (DJ Shadow, if anyone knows him).

[rb924119]

12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.

So i guess the question is... do we still have room to get the lower level circulation to close off earlier?

I think so, but even if not, a slight shift further to the east-southeast would do the trick too. Get them together, and NYC is cooking with gas.

OMG YES! I have never been able to use this now I can!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJRQo5aawho


Real public service anouncement from 1980's. I found it because a DJ I listen to utilizes it as a sample in his mix (DJ Shadow, if anyone knows him).

OH MY……

[rb924119]

12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.[/


RB any idea when we would be getting the Recon sampling?

I think mugsy said they’ll be going out for tonight’s 00z runs, and then again tomorrow…?

[heehaw453]

On the NAM it's that h850 energy that causes the rain. Lower levels look workable see the 925's as it's further east and the fetch is more easterly. That's why I am hoping this can consolidate and stop being a ragged mess. The ragged mess is going to screw us if it continues.

[rb924119]

On the NAM it's that h850 energy that causes the rain. Lower levels look workable see the 925's as it's further east and the fetch is more easterly. That's why I am hoping this can consolidate and stop being a ragged mess. The ragged mess is going to screw us if it continues.

Agree 100%.

[jmanley32]

12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.

So i guess the question is... do we still have room to get the lower level circulation to close off earlier?

I think so, but even if not, a slight shift further to the east-southeast would do the trick too. Get them together, and NYC is cooking with gas.

OMG YES! I have never been able to use this now I can!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJRQo5aawho


Real public service anouncement from 1980's. I found it because a DJ I listen to utilizes it as a sample in his mix (DJ Shadow, if anyone knows him).

OH MY……

I know it is about the worst rap attempt ever, DJ Shadow loves to mix in goofy stuff and he added a sick beat to it.

[rb924119]

RGEM looks worse to me, but waiting to confirm.

[rb924119]

RGEM looks worse to me, but waiting to confirm.

Actually, maybe not as bad as I thought. It looks like it consolidates/slips east sooner than previous runs, which gets the area into more wrap-around snow on the back side, but, it’s also warmer with the approach of the low-level centers overhead, similarly to the NAM. So a give and take there.

[rb924119]

RGEM looks worse to me, but waiting to confirm.

Actually, maybe not as bad as I thought. It looks like it consolidates/slips east sooner than previous runs, which gets the area into more wrap-around snow on the back side, but, it’s also warmer with the approach of the low-level centers overhead, similarly to the NAM. So a give and take there.

[rb924119]

Definitely more snow that run further southeast.

[rb924119]

So that means that we should see a similar change to the regular GEM.

[aiannone]

12z RGEM. Still snowing for new england. Low was tucked into the NJ coast for too long

[jmanley32]

Definitely more snow that run further southeast.

Still screws southern WC but NYC gets into the 6 inch as dioes across the river from me lol, this storm has a vendetta against my area, all joking aside it is better and IMO that area over eastern NJ should be expanded over southern WC, its just like 1 mile away. Weird the snow map alex posted versus you ray do not match.

[rb924119]

12z RGEM. Still snowing for new england. Low was tucked into the NJ coast for too long

It still snows after this for our area too, but not sure why these maps would still be that much different?

[heehaw453]

So that means that we should see a similar change to the regular GEM.

It's all about getting this thing to consolidate just a little faster. It's clear it's going to do it eventually. But eventually is the wild card.

[aiannone]

Here is another RGEM map ray

[amugs]

NWS going with...

[aiannone]

NWS going with...

They just tweeted their first official snowmap for the storm wont be released until this afternoon

[aiannone]

12z GFS running....

[rb924119]

Here is another RGEM map ray

Yeah, this is the Crapola ratios. I can understand why this would be different lol but not the two 10:1 maps haha

[Sponsored content]