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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by amugs Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:50 am

aiannone wrote:12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km22

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km23

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km24

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:51 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Looks like NAM is ALL SNOW KNYC…..waiting on better maps to confirm.
Did not look like it to me on TT, but its not very hi-res or close up snow map.

Verbatim they are apparently on the line lol my bad, but Jimminy Crickets you’re right freakin’ thereeeeeeeee lol

Also love how it’s extending the precip shield further west even as the low continues to the east-northeast, which is what we should see in this scenario, as discussed earlier in the week.
I know, I hate how razor sharp the cutoff is, literally 9.5 miles to my north it goes from 2-3 to 6+, amazing, i want to see at least a decent amount into the pink on TT to feel safe. Still thinking this may be a nowcast for NYC and my area even if models do show a change for the better, lots of things at play that change during storms as we have seen many times 2 years ago lol

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:52 am

amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km22

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km23

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km24

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:53 am

rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km22

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km23

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km24

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.

So i guess the question is... do we still have room to get the lower level circulation to close off earlier?

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:55 am

aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km22

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km23

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km24

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.

So i guess the question is... do we still have room to get the lower level circulation to close off earlier?

I think so, but even if not, a slight shift further to the east-southeast would do the trick too. Get them together, and NYC is cooking with gas.

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by Artechmetals Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:57 am

[quote="rb924119"]
amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km22

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km23

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km24

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.[/


RB any idea when we would be getting the Recon sampling?
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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:58 am

The mid-levels are torched as there is too much energy inland causing that southerly flow. That's got to move east. This the NAM at hour 69 so keep that in mind for now.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Nam71

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2024 9:58 am

rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km22

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km23

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km24

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.

So i guess the question is... do we still have room to get the lower level circulation to close off earlier?

I think so, but even if not, a slight shift further to the east-southeast would do the trick too. Get them together, and NYC is cooking with gas.
OMG YES! I have never been able to use this now I can!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJRQo5aawho


Real public service anouncement from 1980's. I found it because a DJ I listen to utilizes it as a sample in his mix (DJ Shadow, if anyone knows him).

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:01 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km22

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km23

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km24

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.

So i guess the question is... do we still have room to get the lower level circulation to close off earlier?

I think so, but even if not, a slight shift further to the east-southeast would do the trick too. Get them together, and NYC is cooking with gas.
OMG YES! I have never been able to use this now I can!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJRQo5aawho


Real public service anouncement from 1980's. I found it because a DJ I listen to utilizes it as a sample in his mix (DJ Shadow, if anyone knows him).


OH MY…… lol!

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:02 am

Artechmetals wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km22

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km23

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km24

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.[/


RB any idea when we would be getting the Recon sampling?

I think mugsy said they’ll be going out for tonight’s 00z runs, and then again tomorrow…?

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:04 am

On the NAM it's that h850 energy that causes the rain. Lower levels look workable see the 925's as it's further east and the fetch is more easterly. That's why I am hoping this can consolidate and stop being a ragged mess. The ragged mess is going to screw us if it continues.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Nam92513

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:06 am

heehaw453 wrote:On the NAM it's that h850 energy that causes the rain. Lower levels look workable see the 925's as it's further east and the fetch is more easterly. That's why I am hoping this can consolidate and stop being a ragged mess. The ragged mess is going to screw us if it continues.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Nam92513

Agree 100%.

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:08 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:12Z NAM. Definitely took a jump SE, but still tough for the coast with mixing and dry slot

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km22

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km23

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Ref1km24

On soundings it has a dry mid level wedge in various spots since the energy is not consolidated.

6Z EURO was colder and took a tick SE by about 25 miles - the wobbling and waffling continues!

It’s because it’s basically closing the lower level circulation (850 hPa) off overhead. That’s why the precip goes from a burst of snow to snizzle, then back to snow once it passes by.

So i guess the question is... do we still have room to get the lower level circulation to close off earlier?

I think so, but even if not, a slight shift further to the east-southeast would do the trick too. Get them together, and NYC is cooking with gas.
OMG YES! I have never been able to use this now I can!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJRQo5aawho


Real public service anouncement from 1980's. I found it because a DJ I listen to utilizes it as a sample in his mix (DJ Shadow, if anyone knows him).


OH MY…… lol!
I know it is about the worst rap attempt ever, DJ Shadow loves to mix in goofy stuff and he added a sick beat to it.
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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:10 am

RGEM looks worse to me, but waiting to confirm.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:13 am

rb924119 wrote:RGEM looks worse to me, but waiting to confirm.

Actually, maybe not as bad as I thought. It looks like it consolidates/slips east sooner than previous runs, which gets the area into more wrap-around snow on the back side, but, it’s also warmer with the approach of the low-level centers overhead, similarly to the NAM. So a give and take there.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:15 am

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:RGEM looks worse to me, but waiting to confirm.

Actually, maybe not as bad as I thought. It looks like it consolidates/slips east sooner than previous runs, which gets the area into more wrap-around snow on the back side, but, it’s also warmer with the approach of the low-level centers overhead, similarly to the NAM. So a give and take there.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Img_1950

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:16 am

Definitely more snow that run further southeast.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:16 am

So that means that we should see a similar change to the regular GEM.

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:20 am

12z RGEM. Still snowing for new england. Low was tucked into the NJ coast for too long

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Sn10_a65



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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:20 am

rb924119 wrote:Definitely more snow that run further southeast.
Still screws southern WC but NYC gets into the 6 inch as dioes across the river from me lol, this storm has a vendetta against my area, all joking aside it is better and IMO that area over eastern NJ should be expanded over southern WC, its just like 1 mile away. Weird the snow map alex posted versus you ray do not match.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:23 am

aiannone wrote:12z RGEM. Still snowing for new england. Low was tucked into the NJ coast for too long

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Sn10_a65



It still snows after this for our area too, but not sure why these maps would still be that much different?

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:24 am

rb924119 wrote:So that means that we should see a similar change to the regular GEM.

It's all about getting this thing to consolidate just a little faster. It's clear it's going to do it eventually. But eventually is the wild card.

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:31 am

Here is another RGEM map ray

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 41500410

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JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

Post by amugs Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:34 am

NWS going with...

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 GDAUtjCasAAhuNu?format=jpg&name=medium

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 GDAUtiQWQAAoL6M?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:35 am

amugs wrote:NWS going with...

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 GDAUtjCasAAhuNu?format=jpg&name=medium

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 GDAUtiQWQAAoL6M?format=jpg&name=medium

They just tweeted their first official snowmap for the storm wont be released until this afternoon

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:37 am

12z GFS running....

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 04, 2024 10:38 am

aiannone wrote:Here is another RGEM map ray

JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 5 41500410

Yeah, this is the Crapola ratios. I can understand why this would be different lol but not the two 10:1 maps haha

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