JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II

2004blackwrx wrote:Rb if i remember correct your new local is near lake wallenpaupach or however its spelt. Beautiful area. I spent a weekend there this summer with my family and had my baehlor party near by. Hows the storm look for you?

hahahaha yup! Wallenpaupack :p that's awesome, and congratulations! I'm still riding with the 12-18" based on the QPF and ratios. We will see how it shakes out, but I saw the NAM's kuchera ratio had me at 14-16", so at least I'm not entirely alone lol

heehaw453 wrote:

aiannone wrote:Hmmmm….

From what I've been seeing the 925 winds have been quickly turning to east to east-northeast and staying decently cold. Between 800-850 is where I've been seeing warm tongues.

If we can keep the wind direction northeasterly along the coast, it will snow, and that should keep the column and surface cold. Then to add on to what Ray said, if we increase the precip rate because of the wind direction, we also help keep the column cool.

heehaw453 wrote:

aiannone wrote:Hmmmm….

From what I've been seeing the 925 winds have been quickly turning to east to east-northeast and staying decently cold. Between 800-850 is where I've been seeing warm tongues.

Yeah, we want that 850 hPa front to stop progressing northward no further north than Sandy Hook. That should leave enough buffer to prevent any tainting from sleet. The easy way to see this is look at the vorticity at the 850 hPa level - the vorticity will be associated with the actual front at this level. If you stay to the north of that, you should stay primarily snow. If you're under it, you're mixing, and if you're south of it, you're raining. We weren't there on these runs, but we are within reach (I think).

This feels like one of those storms where it could be a cold rain when you get on the A train at Rockaway, but 4 inches of heavy wet slop when you get off at Inwood.

GFS rolling

rb924119 wrote:GFS rolling

Looks west of 18z

Closes 850 low off over Delmarva! If this can maintain through the next frame and not open back up that's HUGE.

aiannone wrote:

That would be snow into KNY - I just checked the sounding. GFS is terrible with boundary layer thermals.

Holy it gives a foot into Westchester Cty NY and NE NJ under those.mega bands in 6 hrs!!

rb924119 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

That would be snow into KNY - I just checked the sounding. GFS is terrible with boundary layer thermals.

How about out by me?

aiannone wrote:

Here's the vorticity for the same time:



That's a pretty sick look. Shift that another 15 miles south and that's really big. Last several runs have been getting that northern edge (front) to Putnam County.

Nice cold air out there tonight. 26* here with a dewpoint of 20* and still dropping. With the right dynamics and track I’d have no problem staying in the frozen stuff throughout the storm tomorrow imby.

aiannone wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

That would be snow into KNY - I just checked the sounding. GFS is terrible with boundary layer thermals.

How about out by me?

Probably go over to a mix and then rain between about 10pm-midnight. I had to blend GFS and NAM thermals on TT, so that's a guesstimate lol

rb924119 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

That would be snow into KNY - I just checked the sounding. GFS is terrible with boundary layer thermals.

How about out by me?

Probably go over to a mix and then rain around midnight.

I'm holding on hope. Maybe a surprise. it's that close. makes it possible LOL

GEM held serve, which is no surprise given the RGEM.

stays consistent with 8 inches for southern dutchess and bulleye moves again

docstox12 wrote:

billg315 wrote:Nice cold air out there tonight. 26* here with a dewpoint of 20* and still dropping. With the right dynamics and track I’d have no problem staying in the frozen stuff throughout the storm tomorrow imby.

I was thinking the same too biilg.Here it is 21 and clear, hoping to drop into the teens here pre storm.

Yep, should get down to about 23* here I think. So many storms where the night before it’s in the upper 30s and you’re questioning “will it get/stay cold enough?” But the cold air is in place for this one. Just have to not flush it out with that warm ocean air. Mugs might be onto something with the CAD as well.

billg315 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

billg315 wrote:Nice cold air out there tonight. 26* here with a dewpoint of 20* and still dropping. With the right dynamics and track I’d have no problem staying in the frozen stuff throughout the storm tomorrow imby.

I was thinking the same too biilg.Here it is 21 and clear, hoping to drop into the teens here pre storm.

Yep, should get down to about 23* here I think. So many storms where the night before it’s in the upper 30s and you’re questioning “will it get/stay cold enough?” But the cold air is in place for this one. Just have to not flush it out with that warm ocean air. Mugs might be onto something with the CAD as well.

24.2* here with 16*dp

I'm at 22.5/18.5. Definitely decent air mass setting up.

HOLY CRAP

GEFS are just slightly wetter lol



It only makes sense when you take a 1.4-1.8 sigma PWAT and force it to rise and condense:



Now, take that and ram it into a cold air mass.....

rb924119 wrote:GEFS are just slightly wetter lol



It only makes sense when you take a 1.4-1.8 sigma PWAT and force it to rise and condense:



Now, take that and ram it into a cold air mass.....

colder or warmer?

It's about the same as earlier runs verbatim.