JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
2004blackwrx wrote:Rb if i remember correct your new local is near lake wallenpaupach or however its spelt. Beautiful area. I spent a weekend there this summer with my family and had my baehlor party near by. Hows the storm look for you?
hahahaha yup! Wallenpaupack :p that's awesome, and congratulations! I'm still riding with the 12-18" based on the QPF and ratios. We will see how it shakes out, but I saw the NAM's kuchera ratio had me at 14-16", so at least I'm not entirely alone lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
If we can keep the wind direction northeasterly along the coast, it will snow, and that should keep the column and surface cold. Then to add on to what Ray said, if we increase the precip rate because of the wind direction, we also help keep the column cool.
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
Yeah, we want that 850 hPa front to stop progressing northward no further north than Sandy Hook. That should leave enough buffer to prevent any tainting from sleet. The easy way to see this is look at the vorticity at the 850 hPa level - the vorticity will be associated with the actual front at this level. If you stay to the north of that, you should stay primarily snow. If you're under it, you're mixing, and if you're south of it, you're raining. We weren't there on these runs, but we are within reach (I think).
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
This feels like one of those storms where it could be a cold rain when you get on the A train at Rockaway, but 4 inches of heavy wet slop when you get off at Inwood.
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
GFS rolling
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
rb924119 wrote:GFS rolling
Looks west of 18z
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
Closes 850 low off over Delmarva! If this can maintain through the next frame and not open back up that's HUGE.
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
Holy it gives a foot into Westchester Cty NY and NE NJ under those.mega bands in 6 hrs!!
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
Nice cold air out there tonight. 26* here with a dewpoint of 20* and still dropping. With the right dynamics and track I’d have no problem staying in the frozen stuff throughout the storm tomorrow imby.
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
Probably go over to a mix and then rain between about 10pm-midnight. I had to blend GFS and NAM thermals on TT, so that's a guesstimate lol
Last edited by rb924119 on Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
I'm holding on hope. Maybe a surprise. it's that close. makes it possible LOL
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
GEM held serve, which is no surprise given the RGEM.
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
stays consistent with 8 inches for southern dutchess and bulleye moves again
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
billg315 wrote:Nice cold air out there tonight. 26* here with a dewpoint of 20* and still dropping. With the right dynamics and track I’d have no problem staying in the frozen stuff throughout the storm tomorrow imby.
I was thinking the same too biilg.Here it is 21 and clear, hoping to drop into the teens here pre storm.
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
docstox12 wrote:billg315 wrote:Nice cold air out there tonight. 26* here with a dewpoint of 20* and still dropping. With the right dynamics and track I’d have no problem staying in the frozen stuff throughout the storm tomorrow imby.
I was thinking the same too biilg.Here it is 21 and clear, hoping to drop into the teens here pre storm.
Yep, should get down to about 23* here I think. So many storms where the night before it’s in the upper 30s and you’re questioning “will it get/stay cold enough?” But the cold air is in place for this one. Just have to not flush it out with that warm ocean air. Mugs might be onto something with the CAD as well.
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
billg315 wrote:docstox12 wrote:billg315 wrote:Nice cold air out there tonight. 26* here with a dewpoint of 20* and still dropping. With the right dynamics and track I’d have no problem staying in the frozen stuff throughout the storm tomorrow imby.
I was thinking the same too biilg.Here it is 21 and clear, hoping to drop into the teens here pre storm.
Yep, should get down to about 23* here I think. So many storms where the night before it’s in the upper 30s and you’re questioning “will it get/stay cold enough?” But the cold air is in place for this one. Just have to not flush it out with that warm ocean air. Mugs might be onto something with the CAD as well.
24.2* here with 16*dp
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
I'm at 22.5/18.5. Definitely decent air mass setting up.
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
HOLY CRAP
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
It's about the same as earlier runs verbatim.
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