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JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:46 pm

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Well this is like a good glass of Woodford Reserve before bed time. Hopefully the Nammy doesn't decide to take it away in 6 hours.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 5 Nam73

One more shift heehaw……..can we do it??? Lol

I sure hope so as this board could use some good juju.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:51 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Well this is like a good glass of Woodford Reserve before bed time. Hopefully the Nammy doesn't decide to take it away in 6 hours.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 5 Nam73

One more shift heehaw……..can we do it??? Lol

I sure hope so as this board could use some good juju.

I think you, me, and mugsy are willing this thing back ahaha

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Post by GreyBeard Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:52 pm

dsix85 wrote:How is that still rain though on Sunday for Long Island?

NWS is all over the place concerning Long Island. Snow to mix, to rain then back to mix, then snow at the end. Looks like the island gets more rain Tuesday night/Wednesday, 2 to 4 inches than it gets snow tomorrow night into Sunday, 1 to 2".

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/20240105_WeekendStorm_PM.pdf

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:52 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:I cant analyze models like you guys but for southern dutchess im gonna say aroung 8 inches give or take 2 seems to be the consensus on all these runs the last two days. The bullseye always moves but that number stays right around there for me. Im such a snow lover that 8 inches sounds bad even though I havent seen that much in a while. I alway want a Godzilla!.

That's basis a 10:1 ratio. I think it'll be more than that.

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:54 pm

Ray, do we care what the GFS has to say at this point?

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:54 pm

Icon running lol

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:56 pm

aiannone wrote:Ray, do we care what the GFS has to say at this point?

I do - I want to see if what the SREFS/NAMs just did is legitimate. If we see this across all (or most) guidance tonight, that would be Fucillo HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU-ge. lol but in all seriousness, yes; I want to see all guidance tonight.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:56 pm

0Z GFS and EURO  brother Rb, continues the trends. HREF too, theTrifecta.

To the playbook of East Coast Snowstorms. Final stages are SE jogs last minute after NW trend makes all weenies sit on the edge of the ledge. We all cry comeback miracle and sit 9n the dge of our seats for now cast time.Some cry tears of joy and other tears of anger, sorrow for not IMBY amounts don't or overperform the model Snowmaps. Then onto the next one only to replay it again.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:59 pm

ICON looks like it'll be better too, but I'm waiting on more maps to come out before saying for sure.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:01 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Well this is like a good glass of Woodford Reserve before bed time. Hopefully the Nammy doesn't decide to take it away in 6 hours.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 5 Nam73

Just a wonderful map, and you know your Bourbons there sir! I would light up a good Cuban to go with that Woodford, if I had one but the other mitigating factor on that is my wife would murder me ,LOL!

Models seem to be lining up for me in the LHV of NY.I like the fact that the precip shield seems to be expanding westward!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:02 pm

wow so some of these maps would bump me into wsw instead of a wwa, still go be a nowcast for me being so close to nyc but it may be just enough north to do decently. honestlya minor to modeate storm will be okay with mr.

qestion frank mentions starting time is now 2pm tomorrow? i was not planning to leave eastern ct till like 1ish and that would get me back aroud 3 to 4pm. or should i leave earlier like 11 or 12?

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:03 pm

docstox12 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Well this is like a good glass of Woodford Reserve before bed time. Hopefully the Nammy doesn't decide to take it away in 6 hours.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 5 Nam73

Just a wonderful map, and you know your Bourbons there sir! I would light up a good Cuban to go with that Woodford, if I had one but the other mitigating factor on that is my wife would murder me ,LOL!

Models seem to be lining up for me in the LHV of NY.I like the fact that the precip shield seems to be expanding westward!
if that 8.5 verifies for me id be very happy and surpried.
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Post by hyde345 Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:05 pm

RGEM which has been very consistent.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 5 Sn10_a17
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:05 pm

RGEM held serve from 18z, though it was notably wetter than 12z.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:07 pm

ICON definitely better than last run, similar to 12z.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:08 pm

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 5 Gdie0l10

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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:08 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Well this is like a good glass of Woodford Reserve before bed time. Hopefully the Nammy doesn't decide to take it away in 6 hours.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 5 Nam73

Just a wonderful map, and you know your Bourbons there sir! I would light up a good Cuban to go with that Woodford, if I had one but the other mitigating factor on that is my wife would murder me ,LOL!

Models seem to be lining up for me in the LHV of NY.I like the fact that the precip shield seems to be expanding westward!
if that 8.5 verifies for me id be very happy and surpried.

I think you have a good shot on getting into the good stuff.See Mugsy's post a few above this,these tri state snowstorms take a last SE jog before they hit.Your area is very close.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:08 pm

rb924119 wrote:RGEM held serve from 18z, though it was notably wetter than 12z.
NAMs were too brother

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:12 pm

RGEM is further N than NAM but just as cold

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 5 17045910

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:14 pm

amugs wrote:RGEM is further N than NAM but just as cold

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 5 17045910

No, it's not as cold - there's a warm tongue that gets in there and turns the I-95 Corridor completely. But at least it didn't get any warmer lol

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:15 pm

The axis of heavier snow +/- 20-25 miles NW or SE IMO. There could be some nice or not so nice surprises. From a synoptic point of view I'd lean to nice surprises, but I'd stay conservative until Now Casting.

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:18 pm

Hmmmm….

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 5 Img_6714

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:19 pm

Rb if i remember correct your new local is near lake wallenpaupach or however its spelt. Beautiful area. I spent a weekend there this summer with my family and had my baehlor party near by. Hows the storm look for you?

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:21 pm

aiannone wrote:Hmmmm….

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 5 Img_6714

I agree with this 100%. This is why I (and heehaw) have been wanting a further south/east adjustment. I also like it because with anomalous easterly flow like that, you enhance low-level moisture transport and boost your QPF/frontogenesis within the CCB.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:21 pm

aiannone wrote:Hmmmm….

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 5 Img_6714

From what I've been seeing the 925 winds have been quickly turning to east to east-northeast and staying decently cold. Between 800-850 is where I've been seeing warm tongues.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:23 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:Rb if i remember correct your new local is near lake wallenpaupach or however its spelt. Beautiful area. I spent a weekend there this summer with my family and had my baehlor party near by. Hows the storm look for you?

hahahaha yup! Wallenpaupack :p that's awesome, and congratulations! I'm still riding with the 12-18" based on the QPF and ratios. We will see how it shakes out, but I saw the NAM's kuchera ratio had me at 14-16", so at least I'm not entirely alone lol

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:24 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Hmmmm….

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 5 Img_6714

From what I've been seeing the 925 winds have been quickly turning to east to east-northeast and staying decently cold. Between 800-850 is where I've been seeing warm tongues.

If we can keep the wind direction northeasterly along the coast, it will snow, and that should keep the column and surface cold. Then to add on to what Ray said, if we increase the precip rate because of the wind direction, we also help keep the column cool.

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