JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
I think you, me, and mugsy are willing this thing back ahaha
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
dsix85 wrote:How is that still rain though on Sunday for Long Island?
NWS is all over the place concerning Long Island. Snow to mix, to rain then back to mix, then snow at the end. Looks like the island gets more rain Tuesday night/Wednesday, 2 to 4 inches than it gets snow tomorrow night into Sunday, 1 to 2".
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/20240105_WeekendStorm_PM.pdf
GreyBeard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
2004blackwrx wrote:I cant analyze models like you guys but for southern dutchess im gonna say aroung 8 inches give or take 2 seems to be the consensus on all these runs the last two days. The bullseye always moves but that number stays right around there for me. Im such a snow lover that 8 inches sounds bad even though I havent seen that much in a while. I alway want a Godzilla!.
That's basis a 10:1 ratio. I think it'll be more than that.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
Ray, do we care what the GFS has to say at this point?
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
Icon running lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
aiannone wrote:Ray, do we care what the GFS has to say at this point?
I do - I want to see if what the SREFS/NAMs just did is legitimate. If we see this across all (or most) guidance tonight, that would be Fucillo HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU-ge. lol but in all seriousness, yes; I want to see all guidance tonight.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
0Z GFS and EURO brother Rb, continues the trends. HREF too, theTrifecta.
To the playbook of East Coast Snowstorms. Final stages are SE jogs last minute after NW trend makes all weenies sit on the edge of the ledge. We all cry comeback miracle and sit 9n the dge of our seats for now cast time.Some cry tears of joy and other tears of anger, sorrow for not IMBY amounts don't or overperform the model Snowmaps. Then onto the next one only to replay it again.
To the playbook of East Coast Snowstorms. Final stages are SE jogs last minute after NW trend makes all weenies sit on the edge of the ledge. We all cry comeback miracle and sit 9n the dge of our seats for now cast time.Some cry tears of joy and other tears of anger, sorrow for not IMBY amounts don't or overperform the model Snowmaps. Then onto the next one only to replay it again.
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Mugs
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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
ICON looks like it'll be better too, but I'm waiting on more maps to come out before saying for sure.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
Just a wonderful map, and you know your Bourbons there sir! I would light up a good Cuban to go with that Woodford, if I had one but the other mitigating factor on that is my wife would murder me ,LOL!
Models seem to be lining up for me in the LHV of NY.I like the fact that the precip shield seems to be expanding westward!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
wow so some of these maps would bump me into wsw instead of a wwa, still go be a nowcast for me being so close to nyc but it may be just enough north to do decently. honestlya minor to modeate storm will be okay with mr.
qestion frank mentions starting time is now 2pm tomorrow? i was not planning to leave eastern ct till like 1ish and that would get me back aroud 3 to 4pm. or should i leave earlier like 11 or 12?
qestion frank mentions starting time is now 2pm tomorrow? i was not planning to leave eastern ct till like 1ish and that would get me back aroud 3 to 4pm. or should i leave earlier like 11 or 12?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
if that 8.5 verifies for me id be very happy and surpried.docstox12 wrote:
Just a wonderful map, and you know your Bourbons there sir! I would light up a good Cuban to go with that Woodford, if I had one but the other mitigating factor on that is my wife would murder me ,LOL!
Models seem to be lining up for me in the LHV of NY.I like the fact that the precip shield seems to be expanding westward!
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hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
RGEM held serve from 18z, though it was notably wetter than 12z.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
ICON definitely better than last run, similar to 12z.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
jmanley32 wrote:if that 8.5 verifies for me id be very happy and surpried.docstox12 wrote:
Just a wonderful map, and you know your Bourbons there sir! I would light up a good Cuban to go with that Woodford, if I had one but the other mitigating factor on that is my wife would murder me ,LOL!
Models seem to be lining up for me in the LHV of NY.I like the fact that the precip shield seems to be expanding westward!
I think you have a good shot on getting into the good stuff.See Mugsy's post a few above this,these tri state snowstorms take a last SE jog before they hit.Your area is very close.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
NAMs were too brotherrb924119 wrote:RGEM held serve from 18z, though it was notably wetter than 12z.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
The axis of heavier snow +/- 20-25 miles NW or SE IMO. There could be some nice or not so nice surprises. From a synoptic point of view I'd lean to nice surprises, but I'd stay conservative until Now Casting.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
Rb if i remember correct your new local is near lake wallenpaupach or however its spelt. Beautiful area. I spent a weekend there this summer with my family and had my baehlor party near by. Hows the storm look for you?
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
2004blackwrx wrote:Rb if i remember correct your new local is near lake wallenpaupach or however its spelt. Beautiful area. I spent a weekend there this summer with my family and had my baehlor party near by. Hows the storm look for you?
hahahaha yup! Wallenpaupack :p that's awesome, and congratulations! I'm still riding with the 12-18" based on the QPF and ratios. We will see how it shakes out, but I saw the NAM's kuchera ratio had me at 14-16", so at least I'm not entirely alone lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II
If we can keep the wind direction northeasterly along the coast, it will snow, and that should keep the column and surface cold. Then to add on to what Ray said, if we increase the precip rate because of the wind direction, we also help keep the column cool.
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