JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Well this is like a good glass of Woodford Reserve before bed time. Hopefully the Nammy doesn't decide to take it away in 6 hours.

One more shift heehaw……..can we do it??? Lol

I sure hope so as this board could use some good juju.

heehaw453 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Well this is like a good glass of Woodford Reserve before bed time. Hopefully the Nammy doesn't decide to take it away in 6 hours.

One more shift heehaw……..can we do it??? Lol

I sure hope so as this board could use some good juju.

I think you, me, and mugsy are willing this thing back ahaha

dsix85 wrote:How is that still rain though on Sunday for Long Island?

NWS is all over the place concerning Long Island. Snow to mix, to rain then back to mix, then snow at the end. Looks like the island gets more rain Tuesday night/Wednesday, 2 to 4 inches than it gets snow tomorrow night into Sunday, 1 to 2".

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/20240105_WeekendStorm_PM.pdf

2004blackwrx wrote:I cant analyze models like you guys but for southern dutchess im gonna say aroung 8 inches give or take 2 seems to be the consensus on all these runs the last two days. The bullseye always moves but that number stays right around there for me. Im such a snow lover that 8 inches sounds bad even though I havent seen that much in a while. I alway want a Godzilla!.

That's basis a 10:1 ratio. I think it'll be more than that.

Ray, do we care what the GFS has to say at this point?

Icon running lol

aiannone wrote:Ray, do we care what the GFS has to say at this point?

I do - I want to see if what the SREFS/NAMs just did is legitimate. If we see this across all (or most) guidance tonight, that would be Fucillo HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU-ge. lol but in all seriousness, yes; I want to see all guidance tonight.

0Z GFS and EURO  brother Rb, continues the trends. HREF too, theTrifecta.

To the playbook of East Coast Snowstorms. Final stages are SE jogs last minute after NW trend makes all weenies sit on the edge of the ledge. We all cry comeback miracle and sit 9n the dge of our seats for now cast time.Some cry tears of joy and other tears of anger, sorrow for not IMBY amounts don't or overperform the model Snowmaps. Then onto the next one only to replay it again.

ICON looks like it'll be better too, but I'm waiting on more maps to come out before saying for sure.

wow so some of these maps would bump me into wsw instead of a wwa, still go be a nowcast for me being so close to nyc but it may be just enough north to do decently. honestlya minor to modeate storm will be okay with mr.

qestion frank mentions starting time is now 2pm tomorrow? i was not planning to leave eastern ct till like 1ish and that would get me back aroud 3 to 4pm. or should i leave earlier like 11 or 12?

docstox12 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Well this is like a good glass of Woodford Reserve before bed time. Hopefully the Nammy doesn't decide to take it away in 6 hours.

Just a wonderful map, and you know your Bourbons there sir! I would light up a good Cuban to go with that Woodford, if I had one but the other mitigating factor on that is my wife would murder me ,LOL!

Models seem to be lining up for me in the LHV of NY.I like the fact that the precip shield seems to be expanding westward!

if that 8.5 verifies for me id be very happy and surpried.

RGEM which has been very consistent.

RGEM held serve from 18z, though it was notably wetter than 12z.

ICON definitely better than last run, similar to 12z.

rb924119 wrote:RGEM held serve from 18z, though it was notably wetter than 12z.

NAMs were too brother

RGEM is further N than NAM but just as cold

amugs wrote:RGEM is further N than NAM but just as cold

No, it's not as cold - there's a warm tongue that gets in there and turns the I-95 Corridor completely. But at least it didn't get any warmer lol

The axis of heavier snow +/- 20-25 miles NW or SE IMO. There could be some nice or not so nice surprises. From a synoptic point of view I'd lean to nice surprises, but I'd stay conservative until Now Casting.

Hmmmm….

Rb if i remember correct your new local is near lake wallenpaupach or however its spelt. Beautiful area. I spent a weekend there this summer with my family and had my baehlor party near by. Hows the storm look for you?

aiannone wrote:Hmmmm….

I agree with this 100%. This is why I (and heehaw) have been wanting a further south/east adjustment. I also like it because with anomalous easterly flow like that, you enhance low-level moisture transport and boost your QPF/frontogenesis within the CCB.

aiannone wrote:Hmmmm….

From what I've been seeing the 925 winds have been quickly turning to east to east-northeast and staying decently cold. Between 800-850 is where I've been seeing warm tongues.

2004blackwrx wrote:Rb if i remember correct your new local is near lake wallenpaupach or however its spelt. Beautiful area. I spent a weekend there this summer with my family and had my baehlor party near by. Hows the storm look for you?

hahahaha yup! Wallenpaupack :p that's awesome, and congratulations! I'm still riding with the 12-18" based on the QPF and ratios. We will see how it shakes out, but I saw the NAM's kuchera ratio had me at 14-16", so at least I'm not entirely alone lol

heehaw453 wrote:

aiannone wrote:Hmmmm….

From what I've been seeing the 925 winds have been quickly turning to east to east-northeast and staying decently cold. Between 800-850 is where I've been seeing warm tongues.

If we can keep the wind direction northeasterly along the coast, it will snow, and that should keep the column and surface cold. Then to add on to what Ray said, if we increase the precip rate because of the wind direction, we also help keep the column cool.