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JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:38 am

How does 3”+ of rain sound a couple of days from now with some people sitting on 8”+ of snow pack? Sounds like flooding.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat Gfs_apcpn_neus_15

Winds also appear to be a concern. This cold front will be no joke. More to come

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:39 am

Has the makings of a squall line

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_46

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Post by Grselig Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:03 pm

Yes. Living in Wayne NJ and we have had significant flooding this past month. Paterson was hit hard and their schools closed for nearly a week

Concerned.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Has the makings of a squall line

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_46

Last thing we need but we all know it's coming. Tired Mad Tired Mad Tired Mad
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:13 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:How does 3”+ of rain sound a couple of days from now with some people sitting on 8”+ of snow pack? Sounds like flooding.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat Gfs_apcpn_neus_15

Winds also appear to be a concern. This cold front will be no joke. More to come
Any wind maps, what are they going to be like? Often when we have these squall lines the winds end up underwhelming, the timing for flooding couldnt be worse for the morning rush, all the parkways here will be flooded, luckily Wed is my work from home day. At least I don't really have to say bye to snow cuz never really had any, I fel for those north.
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Post by phil155 Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:16 pm

Grselig wrote:Yes.  Living in Wayne NJ and we have had significant flooding this past month. Paterson was hit hard and their schools closed for nearly a week

Concerned.

The flood prone locations are very much at risk especially if we see 3+ inches of rain. I know during the last heavy rainstorm the river by canal road was very high and this storm if it lives up to its potential will be terrible for folks by the rivers and streams that typically flood. The ground is saturated to say the least so I am not liking this setup at all

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:20 pm

I don't have the 925s but ya this is concerning often the winds have not built up steam prior to crossing the area and blow up for eastern LI and CT/RI. As you can see the winds already across PC etc are push 100mph 850's. Not going to all translate to surface but more I am showing how strong this is prior to moving in. gonna blow in with a vengence for all. Frank ur not kidding, a major squall line wow, yes its the 3km out of it's range but still yikes.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat Nam3km34

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat Nam3km35
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:21 pm

Grselig wrote:Yes.  Living in Wayne NJ and we have had significant flooding this past month. Paterson was hit hard and their schools closed for nearly a week

Concerned.

It is concerning...family in Caldwell/N Caldwell so know the area..feel for little falls .
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:26 pm

2 Day lead time and there are already high wind warnings for northern NY, no watches went straight to wind warnings (up to 65mph), that is unerving, I know winds are always stronger around the lakes but it still poses what we could be looking at here. I expect headlines by tonight or tomorrow here. If this was snow man, but a squall line couldn't ever produce snow down here I do not think, looks like VT will see some big snow from it.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:28 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Grselig wrote:Yes.  Living in Wayne NJ and we have had significant flooding this past month. Paterson was hit hard and their schools closed for nearly a week

Concerned.

It is concerning...family in Caldwell/N Caldwell so know the area..feel for little falls .
I been to little falls for their town wide garage sale, cute town. I really enjoy going to all the town wides in NJ, it has made me know jersey better and seeing what a nice place most of the townships are, I might even consider moving the NJ one day. Houses any less costly there?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:31 pm

Ugg,

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-081730-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
1229 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A storm system likely brings a period of heavy rain and strong winds
to the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Given the saturated soils and
elevated streamflows, urban and poor drainage flooding appears
likely, with significant river flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.
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Post by Grselig Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:51 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
Grselig wrote:Yes.  Living in Wayne NJ and we have had significant flooding this past month. Paterson was hit hard and their schools closed for nearly a week

Concerned.

It is concerning...family in Caldwell/N Caldwell so know the area..feel for little falls .
I been to little falls for their town wide garage sale, cute town. I really enjoy going to all the town wides in NJ, it has made me know jersey better and seeing what a nice place most of the townships are, I might even consider moving the NJ one day. Houses any less costly there?


Nice town. Not sure about housing values but probably better than Bergen County? At least back when I was looking for a home in 2007.
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Post by Grselig Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:53 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Grselig wrote:Yes.  Living in Wayne NJ and we have had significant flooding this past month. Paterson was hit hard and their schools closed for nearly a week

Concerned.

It is concerning...family in Caldwell/N Caldwell so know the area..feel for little falls .


Yes! I know that people lost everything and needed to be rescued right around Christmas.

I pray this busts.
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Post by sabamfa Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:55 pm

Any idea on timing for this?

Like Grselig, I’m in Wayne and concerned about flooding. While my house is unlikely to flood, it does have the ability to make my commute a nightmare. I have family in the flood zone and it sucks.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:50 pm

sabamfa wrote:Any idea on timing for this?

Like Grselig, I’m in Wayne and concerned about flooding. While my house is unlikely to flood, it does have the ability to make my commute a nightmare. I have family in the flood zone and it sucks.

Light rain will begin around 2pm (+/- 2 hours) on Tuesday. More moderate intensity by rush hour. It will be an absolute deluge with high winds by 9pm (+/- 2 hours). This intensity will continue through 2am (+/- 2 hours) and it looks like the storm will be over well before sunrise. Possibly as early as 4am. In that short time 2 to 3 inches of rain will fall on top of 40+mph winds.

Here's the euro precip total

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat Euro_r10

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:53 pm

The Canadian is much wetter. Widespread 3" amounts. Even 3.5" in north-central jersey. Looks like Morristown area.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat Screen10

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 07, 2024 3:03 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
sabamfa wrote:Any idea on timing for this?

Like Grselig, I’m in Wayne and concerned about flooding. While my house is unlikely to flood, it does have the ability to make my commute a nightmare. I have family in the flood zone and it sucks.

Light rain will begin around 2pm (+/- 2 hours) on Tuesday. More moderate intensity by rush hour. It will be an absolute deluge with high winds by 9pm (+/- 2 hours). This intensity will continue through 2am (+/- 2 hours) and it looks like the storm will be over well before sunrise. Possibly as early as 4am. In that short time 2 to 3 inches of rain will fall on top of 40+mph winds.

Here's the euro precip total

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat Euro_r10
do you have the max gusts map or at least the 925 mb winds, i know pivotal has those, with that heavy rain i would think there would be enough convection for the higher gusts to mix down no? I know there are a lot of factors with that though and I dont understand how to read the soundings.
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Post by sabamfa Sun Jan 07, 2024 3:32 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
sabamfa wrote:Any idea on timing for this?

Like Grselig, I’m in Wayne and concerned about flooding. While my house is unlikely to flood, it does have the ability to make my commute a nightmare. I have family in the flood zone and it sucks.

Light rain will begin around 2pm (+/- 2 hours) on Tuesday. More moderate intensity by rush hour. It will be an absolute deluge with high winds by 9pm (+/- 2 hours). This intensity will continue through 2am (+/- 2 hours) and it looks like the storm will be over well before sunrise. Possibly as early as 4am. In that short time 2 to 3 inches of rain will fall on top of 40+mph winds.

Here's the euro precip total

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat Euro_r10

Thanks, Frank!

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 07, 2024 3:50 pm

WPC flash flooding outlook, not good. Suprised its not moderate into NYC area also, our rivers are running high and i know it is going to flood. the disco states hourly rates could top 1 inch per hr at times.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat 99ewbg10
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 07, 2024 3:52 pm

I expect more areas will follow. I did not expect watches to go up today, was thinking tomorrow.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
343 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024

NYZ075-078>081-176>179-080900-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
343 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
possible.

* WHERE...Kings (Brooklyn), Northwest Suffolk, Northeast
Suffolk, Southwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk, Northern
Queens, Northern Nassau, Southern Queens and Southern Nassau
Counties.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 07, 2024 3:53 pm

For anyone that wants to check river levels, you can click on the ID # on the left of the table and it will give you current data. It also allows you to see different time frames. I use this when I have to watch the brook levels upstream to see what's headed our way.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nj/nwis/current/?type=flow

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 07, 2024 3:56 pm

NWS Disco Upton:

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*Key Points*

* A significant storm system will impact the region Tuesday into
Wednesday.

* A period of heavy rain, and river and coastal flooding are
increasingly likely with this system. See hydrology section below.

* Strong winds with the potential for 45 to 60 mph gusts, highest
along the coast, Tuesday night into early Wednesday are also
possible.

There were no major changes to the forecast. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance continues to be in agreement of the overall
evolution of this system. An upper level low and associated surface
low will lift out of the Southern Plains early Tuesday and track
west of the area as the surface low strengthens. The low will pull
moisture up from the Gulf and track over the Great Lakes (model
PWATs around 1.25" would be close to or just over the max PWAT
value for the 01/10 OKX sounding per SPC`s Sounding Climatology
Page). An all rain event is likely given this track, with the
exception of snow or a rain/snow mix at the onset for portions of
the Lower Hudson Valley. Given the moisture fetch, enhanced forcing
from an upper jet and frontal approach, the ingredients are in place
for a period of heavy rainfall. The NBM probabilities of 3 inches
over 24 hours are now widespread 60 to 80 percent, with 90 percent
across portions of northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. See the
hydrology section below.

The other hazard with this system will be the winds. Latest guidance
still shows 65-70 kts at 950mb, with only a weak inversion in place.
The thinking remains that the area could see widespread 30 to 40 mph
winds with gusts 45 to 60 mph, with the higher end of these values
across the coast. The latest NBM max wind gust probabilities of
seeing 60 mph are as high as 60 percent along the Long Island south
coast.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:54 pm

Does anyone have the surface wind gust maps for tuesday night, all I can see is the 850's and NWS mentioned weak inversion so this is not a good depiction of what could even mix down but the fact that we have 3Km NAM showing 80-110+mph winds over the area is crazy, so from a standpoint of just how powerful this storm will be. NWS is calling for 30-40 sustained and 60mph gusts but if we get stronger inversion we could be in trouble (though this is bad enough with how saturated the ground is). I tried to find the 925's but pivotal wx locks that, those we can use to kind of estimate mixing down. IMO HWW will eventually be needed for NYC area, NE NJ and coastal CT. This system is no joke as progged rn.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat Nam3km36
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 07, 2024 10:06 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian is much wetter. Widespread 3" amounts. Even 3.5" in north-central jersey. Looks like Morristown area.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat Screen10
If you look close and count the levels of purple thas actually 4-4.5...
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:05 pm

HRRR wind gusts

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat Img_6819

12z GFS wind gusts

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat Img_6821

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