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JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 07, 2024 10:06 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian is much wetter. Widespread 3" amounts. Even 3.5" in north-central jersey. Looks like Morristown area.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Screen10
If you look close and count the levels of purple thas actually 4-4.5...

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:05 pm

HRRR wind gusts

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Img_6819

12z GFS wind gusts

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Img_6821

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:06 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian is much wetter. Widespread 3" amounts. Even 3.5" in north-central jersey. Looks like Morristown area.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Screen10
If you look close and count the levels of purple thas actually 4-4.5...

I think the lightest shade of pink/purple starts the 2” mark

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:09 pm

Hi Res NAM wind gusts

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Img_6820

00z GFS wind gusts

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Img_6822
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Img_6823


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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:13 pm

Read it and pass along

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... *Key Points* * A significant storm system will impact the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. * Heavy rain, and river and coastal flooding are increasingly likely with this system. See hydrology section below. * Strong winds with the potential for 45 to 60 mph gusts, highest along the coast, Tuesday night into early Wednesday are also possible. A major storm system will impact the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with heavy rain and both river and coastal flooding. Models have been in good overall agreement for sometime now in taking a strengthening low northward across the Midwest and Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night, sending a strong frontal system into the region. Deep-layered lift with the potential for record breaking PWAT values (1.25-1.40"), is setting the stage for heavy rainfall to overspread the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates for about a 6-h timeframe will be between 0.25 to 0.50 inches, with locally higher rates possible. This will result in a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts. A strong SE flow will likely enhance orographic lift for areas west of NYC up into portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT. NBM probabilities for greater than 2 inches are near 100 percent with much of the area greater than 50 percent for exceeding 3 inches. In addition, snowpack across portions of the area may include up to an inch liquid equivalent. This combined with saturated soils, high streamflow, and low FFG, points to the greatest potential of widespread flooding across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. WPC also has placed this area under a Moderate Risk of exceeding flash flood guidance. Many of the faster responding streams and rivers across this area will likely go into flood with these forecast rainfall amounts. Several river forecast points are also forecast to reach moderate benchmarks. Thus, a Flood Watch is in effect for these areas. There will likely be refinement and expansion of these areas in coming days. The heaviest rains will then exit the area by daybreak Wednesday with some lingering rain possible as the upper low/trough move through the area. Another potential hazard will be high winds, especially along the coasts with SE gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible. A high wind watch has been issued for LI and may very well need to be expanded to the CT coast in later forecasts. Elsewhere, Wind Advisory level winds are possible elsewhere. At this time, used a blend of the NBM and NBMexp which seemed to best represent the wind and gust potential based on model soundings.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian is much wetter. Widespread 3" amounts. Even 3.5" in north-central jersey. Looks like Morristown area.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Screen10
If you look close and count the levels of purple thas actually 4-4.5...

I think the lightest shade of pink/purple starts the 2” mark

this will be catastrophic for the areas that were flooded not long ago. Sad
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:17 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Hi Res NAM wind gusts

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Img_6820

00z GFS wind gusts

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Img_6822
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Img_6823

well then clear increase on gfs from previous run and im surprised you even posted hi res nam dont you think thats beyond overdone? I mean 79mph in white plains?! That would not be good at all. Do you think rain could exceed 4 inches or is that the ceiling. I sure hope the latter. Syill no wind alerts for ct or nyc/ westchester not sure why nws is waiting being they have issued most other areas.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:25 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian is much wetter. Widespread 3" amounts. Even 3.5" in north-central jersey. Looks like Morristown area.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Screen10
If you look close and count the levels of purple thas actually 4-4.5...

I think the lightest shade of pink/purple starts the 2” mark

this will be catastrophic for the areas that were flooded not long ago. Sad
not to mention some of those areas have 6 plus inches of snow. Which could add .5 to 1.0 if its calculated in qpf. Wed morning commute will be a disaster.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 5:05 am

Oy GFS is headed towards numbers the 3km NAM is showing, news outlets are already mentioning up to 70 mph gusts, dunno how much ground that holds but this is latest GFSmax rain and hughest wind gusts (accumulated) (00z) compliments of JB. And of even more concern to many in NJ and LHV is the flood threat large area there of 3+ inchs.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Gdsqgr10

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Gdsqiq10


Last edited by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 08, 2024 6:16 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 6:09 am

WPC extended moderate area for flash flooding and in disco mentions possibility of High level in future forecasts, which is very rare for up here.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 98ewbg12
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:11 am

Winds are going to be howling for some if th einversions being shown on the soundings are correct.

GFS wind map you can cut by 25% but still its roaring.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Winds_10

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:20 am

He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.


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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:30 am

amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:57 am

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 GDVYlafWAAo1LQj?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:58 am

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.

Upton will wait.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:27 pm

I just took a quick look at some forecast soundings for my local area here in NEPA, and it doesn’t look good. AT ALL. However, with the snowpack, I’m hoping that it can help induce a stout extremely low-level inversion to help prevent mixing just long enough to allow the core of the strongest winds to pass overhead. I have to look at this more closely later. But I’m hoping the same thing can occur for everybody else that just got snow.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:34 pm

rb924119 wrote:I just took a quick look at some forecast soundings for my local area here in NEPA, and it doesn’t look good. AT ALL. However, with the snowpack, I’m hoping that it can help induce a stout extremely low-level inversion to help prevent mixing just long enough to allow the core of the strongest winds to pass overhead. I have to look at this more closely later. But I’m hoping the same thing can occur for everybody else that just got snow.
what sbout over here do you think the met above could b right could we really see close to if not hurricane force gusts?
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:36 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.

Upton will wait.
but what are they wait for i think this potential at least warrents a HW watch. Or are they go wait till going straight to warning or advisory. Why are they always last to make decision lol
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Post by phil155 Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:36 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.

Upton will wait.


I have to think this will not verify, but as mentioned earlier even 65-75% of this for gusts will be a problem. This would be almost Sandy like in terms of winds if it verified

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.
And you don't think the Jersey coast?? LOL we already have high winter watch posted..
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:49 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.
And you don't think the Jersey coast?? LOL  we already have high winter watch posted..
Didn't mention them cuz as you said you have a HWW, I dunno what engraved invitation Upton is waiting for, literally HWW all way to south of NYC (Atlantic city I believe) then nothing then LI and RI/MA. NYC area, coastal CT have nothing, As i said guess they may be waiting to see if the inversion might allow for those insane numbers to verify.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:56 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I just took a quick look at some forecast soundings for my local area here in NEPA, and it doesn’t look good. AT ALL. However, with the snowpack, I’m hoping that it can help induce a stout extremely low-level inversion to help prevent mixing just long enough to allow the core of the strongest winds to pass overhead. I have to look at this more closely later. But I’m hoping the same thing can occur for everybody else that just got snow.
what sbout over here do you think the met above could b right could we really see close to if not hurricane force gusts?

I haven’t looked yet, but I will tonight after work. However, it seems like a setup where the atmospheric column will be pretty isothermal through the boundary layer (meaning the temperatures are approximately the same through 850 hPa). This would mean that there’s no inversion, and momentum transfer would be efficient, and allow the high winds to mix down, especially with any convection. So yeah, at face value, his thoughts seem valid to me.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:59 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I just took a quick look at some forecast soundings for my local area here in NEPA, and it doesn’t look good. AT ALL. However, with the snowpack, I’m hoping that it can help induce a stout extremely low-level inversion to help prevent mixing just long enough to allow the core of the strongest winds to pass overhead. I have to look at this more closely later. But I’m hoping the same thing can occur for everybody else that just got snow.
what sbout over here do you think the met above could b right could we really see close to if not hurricane force gusts?

I haven’t looked yet, but I will tonight after work. However, it seems like a setup where the atmospheric column will be pretty isothermal through the boundary layer (meaning the temperatures are approximately the same through 850 hPa). This would mean that there’s no inversion, and momentum transfer would be efficient, and allow the high winds to mix down, especially with any convection. So yeah, at face value, his thoughts seem valid to me.
I am confused, I thought weak inversion meant the winds wouldn't mix down, inversion is the opposite you want it to be weak? Yeah def let us know ur thoughts later. gotta ready Upton's disco not sure if a new one is out and if they explain why they are holding off on wind headlines for NYC are and CT.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:09 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I just took a quick look at some forecast soundings for my local area here in NEPA, and it doesn’t look good. AT ALL. However, with the snowpack, I’m hoping that it can help induce a stout extremely low-level inversion to help prevent mixing just long enough to allow the core of the strongest winds to pass overhead. I have to look at this more closely later. But I’m hoping the same thing can occur for everybody else that just got snow.
what sbout over here do you think the met above could b right could we really see close to if not hurricane force gusts?

I haven’t looked yet, but I will tonight after work. However, it seems like a setup where the atmospheric column will be pretty isothermal through the boundary layer (meaning the temperatures are approximately the same through 850 hPa). This would mean that there’s no inversion, and momentum transfer would be efficient, and allow the high winds to mix down, especially with any convection. So yeah, at face value, his thoughts seem valid to me.
I am confused, I thought weak inversion meant the winds wouldn't mix down, inversion is the opposite you want it to be weak? Yeah def let us know ur thoughts later. gotta ready Upton's disco not sure if a new one is out and if they explain why they are holding off on wind headlines for NYC are and CT.

The stronger an inversion is, the harder it is for wind to mix down to the surface. In this case, I don’t think that there will be an inversion along the coast because the thermal profile appears generally isothermal (uniform) from the surface through 850 hPa.So, high winds appear to be a legitimate threat. Inland where there’s snowpack, my hope is that the snow can help induce a very low-level inversion just above the surface to help limit the mixing of the high winds to the surface there. But I’m not sure that will happen, and have to look at all of it later.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:37 pm

Ida 2.0 peeps, prepare the ark and the generators is all I am saying. call it hype or what you want but models are noty backing down from winds nor flooding potentital.
Jersey shore will have possible moderate to major coastal flooding as well. Upton playing politicas again by utter silence or waiting?
SE winds will rake the area 40 -50 MPH inland and LI and Jersey Shore up to 65/70mph is not out of the question.
Unless we see models backing off this is a worry.
NNJ does not do well with SE winds nor does the shore.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 GDVo4AtWEAEXFIJ?format=jpg&name=900x900

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:40 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.
And you don't think the Jersey coast?? LOL  we already have high winter watch posted..
Didn't mention them cuz as you said you have a HWW, I dunno what engraved invitation Upton is waiting for, literally HWW all way to south of NYC (Atlantic city I believe) then nothing then LI and RI/MA. NYC area, coastal CT have nothing, As i said guess they may be waiting to see if the inversion might allow for those insane numbers to verify.

Easy jman, they are late quite often on watches, warnings etc. No news is good news, if they haven't issued one yet, they aren't concerned yet. We are still 24 hours away from start time, there is plenty of time to put out additional watches/warnings. I would rather they take their time and get it right then go early and have to retract or adjust.

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Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:45 pm

amugs wrote:Ida 2.0 peeps, prepare the ark and the generators is all I am saying. call it hype or what you want but models are noty backing down from winds nor flooding potentital.
Jersey shore will have possible moderate to major coastal flooding as well. Upton playing politicas again by utter silence or waiting?
SE winds will rake the area 40 -50 MPH inland and LI and Jersey Shore up to 65/70mph is not out of the question.
Unless we see models backing off this is a worry.
NNJ does not do well with SE winds nor does the shore.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 GDVo4AtWEAEXFIJ?format=jpg&name=900x900

The bolded/italicized point is extremely poignant, and I was just talking to a friend/employer of mine who owns a tree service about this. Our climatological wind direction is west-northwest, so trees are used to added stress from that direction and grow accordingly. However, this will have an anomalous southerly/easterly component, which, if the wind potential is realized, will result in additional damage that we wouldn’t otherwise see if it was west-northwest wind, because that is the weaker side of the tree’s fibers. This goes for everywhere north and west of I-95. A secondary factor is that we have snow load up here.

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JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

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