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JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

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JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 18 Empty Re: JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:30 pm

currently 49* down from a 57* high.. winds roaring at 21mph wsw we had a gust of 30 a bit ago..our rain total was 2.54 inches...bring on the SNOW..

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:35 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:currently 49* down from a 57* high.. winds roaring  at 21mph wsw we had a gust of 30 a bit ago..our rain total was 2.54 inches...bring on the SNOW..
slight chance of that on 16th, not fri/sat though thats another dismal cutter, originally it was looking possible it might not cut but its in close range now 48 hrs or so and its pretty set, intensity is kinda still in question, SR models appear to have it pretty strong.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:36 pm

See what interests me is your guys definition of raring winds, 25-30 mph and 40 mph gusts is not exactly roaring IMO, so what would you call 50-70 mph, godzilla roaring winds lol?
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JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 18 Empty Re: JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:currently 49* down from a 57* high.. winds roaring  at 21mph wsw we had a gust of 30 a bit ago..our rain total was 2.54 inches...bring on the SNOW..
slight chance of that on 16th, not fri/sat though thats another dismal cutter, originally it was looking possible it might not cut but its in close range now 48 hrs or so and its pretty set, intensity is kinda still in question, SR models appear to have it pretty strong.

yeah I figured Fri more rain..but the cold is coming! we need snow..no snow in 2 years down here except for mood flakes...
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:45 pm

Winds absolutely ripping, loud! Power lines moving all over right outside my window.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:58 pm

I'd love to see a printout of wind observations if somebody can find a map of highest observed gusts, or a PNS/LSR summary from the NWS. I haven't found one yet.

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Post by WeatherBob Wed Jan 10, 2024 2:04 pm

This was the type of storm that if the reporting station reported gust to 48 mph, a distance of maybe a thousand or two feet or less can be a gust to 60 mph. Am I correct in my assumption rb ?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 10, 2024 2:11 pm

WeatherBob wrote:This was the type of storm that if the reporting station reported  gust to 48 mph, a distance of maybe a thousand or two feet or less can be a gust to 60 mph.  Am I correct in my assumption rb ?
I think also has alot to do if things like buildings are in the way when the wind blows and it stops it. Like the direction the wind is now is right at my windows last night it was parallel so i barely heard it.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 10, 2024 2:39 pm

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 18 20240112
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 18 20240111
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 18 20240110

Some pictures
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 10, 2024 2:59 pm

WeatherBob wrote:This was the type of storm that if the reporting station reported  gust to 48 mph, a distance of maybe a thousand or two feet or less can be a gust to 60 mph.  Am I correct in my assumption rb ?

I don't see any reason to disagree. Wind is incredibly unpredictable, and local/micro-scale topographical or even infrastructural features can affect them, so seeing a variance of several mph is not unexpected, at least in my opinion.

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Post by GreyBeard Wed Jan 10, 2024 4:31 pm

rb924119 wrote:I'd love to see a printout of wind observations if somebody can find a map of highest observed gusts, or a PNS/LSR summary from the NWS. I haven't found one yet.

Not a very extensive list rb, but saw this looking at my forecast from NWS. Timestamp was 3:34AM so list probably needs to be updated.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/windpns2.pdf

Here was the rainfall totals. A little more extensive view.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/20240110_Rainfall_PNS.pdf

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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Jan 10, 2024 5:26 pm

My beloved Bayville! This road that is underwater is Bayview Ave, one of the prettiest roads there is. Marsh wetlands with all kinds of visible and exotic wildlife on the west side and about a mile’s worth of Barnegat Bay going into Seaside Park/Island Beach State Park to the east. I’ve been on the road a few times at high tide when I didn’t like how high the water was, so I could only imagine how terrifying and upsetting this was to the folk who live over there. 😢
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 18 Img_1_10
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 18 Img_2_10

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JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 18 Empty Re: JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:24 am

GreyBeard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I'd love to see a printout of wind observations if somebody can find a map of highest observed gusts, or a PNS/LSR summary from the NWS. I haven't found one yet.

Not a very extensive list rb, but saw this looking at my forecast from NWS. Timestamp was 3:34AM so list probably needs to be updated.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/windpns2.pdf

Here was the rainfall totals. A little more extensive view.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/20240110_Rainfall_PNS.pdf

Thanks, GreyBeard! It definitely helped me to verify my wind forecast, which, outside of the coastal areas and the northern/western zones, was overdone. This was certainly an interesting event, especially with the inconsistent performance of that squall line. I almost wonder if the intensity of the low-level jet helps to make it less susceptible to vertical perturbations/mixing, even without the presence of any inversion, almost like it becomes more “rigid” in a sense. I’m not sure. But, in the end, I’m glad that the maximum potential severity wasn’t realized, at least with the wind. The rainfall and flooding, however, definitely were, which is worse :/

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:41 am

Yesterday the Yantic Rivers Dam broke in Norwichtown CT, absolutely devastating to the residents there had to be military and air rescues. My friend lives about 5 min from there but is in a elevated area.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:40 am

I saw that, Jman. Awful.

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