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JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:37 am

Oy ray. NWS saw ur idea snd went with it. Hww issued here (i knew they would just too close to coast) and peak gusts increased to 65mph. Ct and LI increased to 70 mph. .This is go be really bad. Lights out...


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:47 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:42 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Good morning, everyone! It's been awhile -- hope you're all well Very Happy

The latest on winds from a normally conservative Upton office paints a very impactful picture tonight with an increase in expected gusts across the area. High Wind Warnings have been expanded west and now include Manhattan, southern Westchester, & Hudson County, NJ where 65 mph winds are possible. For Staten Island, Queens, Brooklyn and the rest of Long Island, the High Wind Warning verbiage now explicitly calls for 70 mph wind gusts.

It's been more than 3 years since Manhattan was included in High Wind Warning, with the last issuance occurring on December 24, 2020.
hey buddy! And when was it last for 65mph and even li 70 mph hww very rare. Welcome along for this dicy situation. If you read back rb made a map calling these numbers and the nws must seen. We kinda both knew they would increase it. This is bordering on a isiais kind of situation lasted bout 4 to 6 hrs and about same peak gusts. Very concerning.


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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:45 am

phil155 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I think 3KM NAM and all the nam runs for that fact are under doing the rain, it has some areas not even seeing 2 inches in the areas that are calling for 2-3+

One thing that may limit the rainfall is the speed of this, storm will be moving at a good clip
good point its go be ripping for 4 to 6 hrs then shut off like a faucet. Not good that everything was increased regarding winds. Those numbers are go cause major strong ts like outages for days. On plus side its not 100 degrees out so no AC needed.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:57 am

Wow NWS has increased the max wind gust map significantly IMBY by 15+ mph. they also mention not only will gusts be to 65mph in and around nyc, and 70 mph on coast but that locally HIGHER gusts meaning hurricane force could happen. I couldn't copy and past the snippet but it is in the briefing. Area of heaviest rain also shifted a bit. At this point its pretty much nowcast time.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/01092024_am_public.pdf

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 09, 2024 7:17 am

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 6 10mgus10
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 6 Gmp_u210

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 09, 2024 7:21 am

amugs wrote:JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 6 10mgus10
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 6 Gmp_u210
This is not playing man, and did you get my message. Hope you did and I also posted a reply here. Where did you get that first mapthe HREF? Some may reach hurricane force gusts, in fact I am pretty sure there will be a few isolated ones at the very least. Not much I myself can do to prepare other than have flashlights and charge stuff up. Not to much food in fridge so don't have to worry about that.


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Post by Mathgod55 Tue Jan 09, 2024 7:23 am

Wind always seems to be over estimated.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 09, 2024 7:25 am

jmanley32 wrote:BTW Ray, my parents are in your red area, to be specific Guilford, CT. They have filled their tub with water for flushing as it is a rural shore town and no power = no water pump. Looks like they could really be in for it. It is so sad as a kid I used to love to play and build tree forts in the small pine grove we had in our backyard. Irene did round 1 of removal and Sandy took the rest out, cost many thousands of doallrs for the cleanup. They decided to extend the yard by about 25 feet (might even been more not sure) or so once it was just a barren opening of woods. We used to have nice protction between the two houses on either side but the woods thinned out so much that everyone has a clear view now, less in summer obviously. Amazing it took till 2011/2012 (we moved there in 1986 and was able to withstand many windstorms prior) to take out that pine grove, goes to show storms are only getting worse.

As my Grandfather used to say, “Mother Nature is gonna do what Mother Nature is gonna do.” It stinks to see that change go on over the years, but we have no control over that, just like urbanization. That drives me nuts; seeing what was once beautiful farmland and forest get turned into shopping complexes and housing developments. I hate it. But, what can I do, ya know? I won’t touch your last point though, at least right now lol

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 09, 2024 7:29 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:BTW Ray, my parents are in your red area, to be specific Guilford, CT. They have filled their tub with water for flushing as it is a rural shore town and no power = no water pump. Looks like they could really be in for it. It is so sad as a kid I used to love to play and build tree forts in the small pine grove we had in our backyard. Irene did round 1 of removal and Sandy took the rest out, cost many thousands of doallrs for the cleanup. They decided to extend the yard by about 25 feet (might even been more not sure) or so once it was just a barren opening of woods. We used to have nice protction between the two houses on either side but the woods thinned out so much that everyone has a clear view now, less in summer obviously. Amazing it took till 2011/2012 (we moved there in 1986 and was able to withstand many windstorms prior) to take out that pine grove, goes to show storms are only getting worse.

As my Grandfather used to say, “Mother Nature is gonna do what Mother Nature is gonna do.” It stinks to see that change go on over the years, but we have no control over that, just like urbanization. That drives me nuts; seeing what was once beautiful farmland and forest get turned into shopping complexes and housing developments. I hate it. But, what can I do, ya know? I won’t touch your last point though, at least right now lol
LOL, good idea not even sure I should added that fire. I posted a paqge back that NWS must have seen ur ideas cuz if you did not see HWW were added to my area and upped to 65mph and LI to 70mph, you were right, well we both were cuz my gut was these numbers would be at least acknowledged by NWS and for them to do so is bold as those levels are nothing to trifle with.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 09, 2024 7:31 am

Mathgod55 wrote:Wind always seems to be over estimated.
Can be but in this case there is a lot of backing for these intense winds and being the NWS has gone this more extreme wind threat I am taking it very seriously, if it underperforms than it will be a good thing but even if it drops say 10mph still go be a lot of issues ALOT. So be prepared is all I can say. Didn't notice ur location, batten down the hatches your really going to get the worst of it.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 09, 2024 7:37 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Good morning, everyone! It's been awhile -- hope you're all well Very Happy

The latest on winds from a normally conservative Upton office paints a very impactful picture tonight with an increase in expected gusts across the area. High Wind Warnings have been expanded west and now include Manhattan, southern Westchester, & Hudson County, NJ where 65 mph winds are possible. For Staten Island, Queens, Brooklyn and the rest of Long Island, the High Wind Warning verbiage now explicitly calls for 70 mph wind gusts.

It's been more than 3 years since Manhattan was included in High Wind Warning, with the last issuance occurring on December 24, 2020.

Good to hear from you, Soul! Hope you’re well!!

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 09, 2024 7:38 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:BTW Ray, my parents are in your red area, to be specific Guilford, CT. They have filled their tub with water for flushing as it is a rural shore town and no power = no water pump. Looks like they could really be in for it. It is so sad as a kid I used to love to play and build tree forts in the small pine grove we had in our backyard. Irene did round 1 of removal and Sandy took the rest out, cost many thousands of doallrs for the cleanup. They decided to extend the yard by about 25 feet (might even been more not sure) or so once it was just a barren opening of woods. We used to have nice protction between the two houses on either side but the woods thinned out so much that everyone has a clear view now, less in summer obviously. Amazing it took till 2011/2012 (we moved there in 1986 and was able to withstand many windstorms prior) to take out that pine grove, goes to show storms are only getting worse.

As my Grandfather used to say, “Mother Nature is gonna do what Mother Nature is gonna do.” It stinks to see that change go on over the years, but we have no control over that, just like urbanization. That drives me nuts; seeing what was once beautiful farmland and forest get turned into shopping complexes and housing developments. I hate it. But, what can I do, ya know? I won’t touch your last point though, at least right now lol
LOL, good idea not even sure I should added that fire. I posted a paqge back that NWS must have seen ur ideas cuz if you did not see HWW were added to my area and upped to 65mph and LI to 70mph, you were right, well we both were cuz my gut was these numbers would be at least acknowledged by NWS and for them to do so is bold as those levels are nothing to trifle with.

I won’t say I was weight about anything yet because nothing has happened to actually verify anything ahaha plus, they disagree with me on where the max winds will be.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 09, 2024 7:48 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:BTW Ray, my parents are in your red area, to be specific Guilford, CT. They have filled their tub with water for flushing as it is a rural shore town and no power = no water pump. Looks like they could really be in for it. It is so sad as a kid I used to love to play and build tree forts in the small pine grove we had in our backyard. Irene did round 1 of removal and Sandy took the rest out, cost many thousands of doallrs for the cleanup. They decided to extend the yard by about 25 feet (might even been more not sure) or so once it was just a barren opening of woods. We used to have nice protction between the two houses on either side but the woods thinned out so much that everyone has a clear view now, less in summer obviously. Amazing it took till 2011/2012 (we moved there in 1986 and was able to withstand many windstorms prior) to take out that pine grove, goes to show storms are only getting worse.

As my Grandfather used to say, “Mother Nature is gonna do what Mother Nature is gonna do.” It stinks to see that change go on over the years, but we have no control over that, just like urbanization. That drives me nuts; seeing what was once beautiful farmland and forest get turned into shopping complexes and housing developments. I hate it. But, what can I do, ya know? I won’t touch your last point though, at least right now lol
LOL, good idea not even sure I should added that fire. I posted a paqge back that NWS must have seen ur ideas cuz if you did not see HWW were added to my area and upped to 65mph and LI to 70mph, you were right, well we both were cuz my gut was these numbers would be at least acknowledged by NWS and for them to do so is bold as those levels are nothing to trifle with.

I won’t say I was weight about anything yet because nothing has happened to actually verify anything ahaha plus, they disagree with me on where the max winds will be.
not completely, coastal ct they agree, nyc area they agree, its over western nj you got the disagreement and up the rivers. When i say right I mean about the potential not about the outcome obviously lol
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 09, 2024 8:31 am

Soul!! Welcome back my man!

This is wild - snowing in bluish areas. Dynamic storm for sure.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 6 GDZz3P3XEAAu_oG?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 09, 2024 8:34 am

amugs wrote:Soul!! Welcome back my man!

This is wild - snowing in bluish areas. Dynamic storm for sure.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 6 GDZz3P3XEAAu_oG?format=jpg&name=large
yeah nws had mentioned a very brief onset of snow for far n/w folks. Wow its mobing in fast. You know whatd not funny. Its colder rn at 32 than it was on sat night.
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 09, 2024 8:58 am

Ugghhhh!!

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 6 GDZ3LqpXsAAgWV4?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:01 am

.5-2" of rain locked up in the snow pack - OOFFAAA for flooding issues

Zoo there you have it:

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 6 GDZ7SZ9aIAA6_Yn?format=jpg&name=900x900

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:10 am

amugs wrote:.5-2" of rain locked up in the snow pack - OOFFAAA for flooding issues

Zoo there you have it:

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 6 GDZ7SZ9aIAA6_Yn?format=jpg&name=900x900

I figured about .5-.75" of snow melt for our area, the drainage basin for the reservoir is from here to New City NY so I'm expecting about 3 - 3.5" of rain into the watershed. If that 4" in NYS verifies, oh boy!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:17 am

According to soul there has not been a HWW for Manhattan since Dec. 24th 2020 (I do not remember that day at all, that we had a storm), let alone one suggesting gusts to 65mph, lets see how this plays out but not good.



URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
349 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

NJZ006-NYZ071>073-092200-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.HW.W.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/
Hudson-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
349 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 65 mph
 expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Hudson County. In New York, Southern
 Westchester, New York (Manhattan) and Bronx Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
 Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
 especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:37 am

Flurries starting here, slight breeze. Tons of snow still on the trees, with up to 2” more before it gets soaked and heavy. Terrific Brick

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:44 am

Steady light snow has commenced. 28°.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:52 am

Current snow load situation:

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 6 Img_1917

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Post by 1190ftalt Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:56 am

24 degrees at 9:51 in the am, still have about 9 inches of snow on the ground, be interesting to see if the rain totally wipes it out, gonna be a strange weather event,
    Good Luck !JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 6 64d5f410
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 6 85e31b10
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 09, 2024 10:26 am

rb924119 wrote:Flurries starting here, slight breeze. Tons of snow still on the trees, with up to 2” more before it gets soaked and heavy. Terrific Brick
I guess good with the bad right, at least your getting to see snow for the 2nd time, though its gonna weigh on trees and exacerbate flooding potential.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 09, 2024 10:39 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Flurries starting here, slight breeze. Tons of snow still on the trees, with up to 2” more before it gets soaked and heavy. Terrific Brick
I guess good with the bad right, at least your getting to see snow for the 2nd time, though its gonna weigh on trees and exacerbate flooding potential.

Third time haha If I get 2” today I’ll be at 20” for the season so far. I’m not worried about flooding here at the house, because we are on top of a mountain, but down in town might get ugly lol the wind is the scariest part, by far, but I’m hoping my forecast is on track and it doesn’t get too bad lol not sure if you noticed in my picture, but we’re surrounded by really big and tall timber haha I’ve seen gusts to about 40 mph so far in western PA, so, so far, so good lol

Moderate snow now, going on a half-inch.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 09, 2024 10:45 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Flurries starting here, slight breeze. Tons of snow still on the trees, with up to 2” more before it gets soaked and heavy. Terrific Brick
I guess good with the bad right, at least your getting to see snow for the 2nd time, though its gonna weigh on trees and exacerbate flooding potential.

Third time haha If I get 2” today I’ll be at 20” for the season so far. I’m not worried about flooding here at the house, because we are on top of a mountain, but down in town might get ugly lol the wind is the scariest part, by far, but I’m hoping my forecast is on track and it doesn’t get too bad lol not sure if you noticed in my picture, but we’re surrounded by really big and tall timber haha I’ve seen gusts to about 40 mph so far in western PA, so, so far, so good lol

Moderate snow now, going on a half-inch.
Winds that high already? That doesn't bode well as its not even close to being near full force is it over there? Yeah will let you know how it gets here right now cold and dead calm. Wouldn't even know a storm is coming.
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JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 6 Empty Re: JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 09, 2024 10:52 am

Yeah, that’s about on track, I think.

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