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JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

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Post by silentwreck Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:27 pm

jmanley32 wrote:yup, gn all. good tracking! hope we can be doing this with snow soon.


hopefully soon gn

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Post by frank 638 Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:30 pm

First line came through with bery heavy wind driven rain ..rain lightly

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:30 pm

daughter has 2 hr delay.
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:31 pm

Winds have calmed down, temp at 54*, 2.25" highest gust was 32 in a semi protected balcony. Mom in Paramus has a leaning oak tree. Flooding starting in town

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by frank 638 Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:31 pm

The wind did ease up for now what about everyone else with the wind

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Post by silentwreck Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:33 pm

frank 638 wrote:The wind did ease up for now what about everyone else with the wind

same, still raining tho

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Post by essexcountypete Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:41 pm

winds did calm down here quite a bit but still raining pretty hard.

back yard is one very large puddle.
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Post by essexcountypete Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:55 pm

Wunderground had me forecast for anywhere from 2.55 to 2.76 of rain, and it looks like we got close to that.

I don't think we hit the max gusts forecast but we got the howling, freight train sound here in the 8:30-9:30 timeframe that hints to me that we hit middle 40s.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jan 09, 2024 11:59 pm

The winds eased here as well still raining pretty hard we have almost 2.25 inches of rain so far
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 17 Screen22
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Post by silentwreck Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:12 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:The winds eased here as well still raining pretty hard we have almost 2.25 inches of rain so far
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 17 Screen22

Very Heavy Rain falling in the area again. Looks like another 1-2+ hours of heavy rainfall

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Post by silentwreck Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:20 am

silentwreck wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:The winds eased here as well still raining pretty hard we have almost 2.25 inches of rain so far
JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 17 Screen22

Very Heavy Rain falling in the area again. Looks like another 1-2+ hours of heavy rainfall

Flood warning has been extended until 2:30am for the NYC area!

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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 10, 2024 6:19 am

NWS had me at around 1.5 inches.There were good wind gusts, had to be in the 40mph range last night.Right now, 44 degrees, cloudy and light breeze.Came through this ok, no trees down and power stayed on but 9 inch snow pack obliterated save for a few patches and piles.Guess a few day snowpack is it in Wall.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:55 am

Impressive storm. Was mid 970's as it cut to our west. I had ~3" of rain and at least 40 mph wind gusts. Lost power briefly.

Needless to say the 3" of snow that fell is all but a memory now.

44 now and drying out.

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Post by crippo84 Wed Jan 10, 2024 8:25 am

docstox12 wrote:NWS had me at around 1.5 inches.There were good wind gusts, had to be in the 40mph range last night.Right now, 44 degrees, cloudy and light breeze.Came through this ok, no trees down and power stayed on but 9 inch snow pack obliterated save for a few patches and piles.Guess a few day snowpack is it in Wall.

I'm willing to bet you exceeded that rainfall total. The NWS rainfall update on their website is valid as of about 9:45 last night. That squall came through with something fierce a little before 11. I'm curious to see the final update.
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Post by phil155 Wed Jan 10, 2024 9:04 am

How are the rivers looking? Concerned the next system will cause very serious issues

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Jan 10, 2024 9:10 am

Wow, what a night!  2.66" of rain, plus about .5" of snow melt, had flooding here as the reservoir hit capacity and they had to let some water out. Wind gusts close to 40 mpg, trees down as well. This is my Mom's tree in Paramus, about 7 miles south of me.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 17 Tree110

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 17 Tree210

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Coachgriff Wed Jan 10, 2024 9:20 am

D&R Canal flooded again…probably will do the same Friday night.  No school for me so I haven’t checked the Millstone yet…if it didn’t flood I am sure it’s close.
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Post by Grselig Wed Jan 10, 2024 10:00 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Wow, what a night!  2.66" of rain, plus about .5" of snow melt, had flooding here as the reservoir hit capacity and they had to let some water out. Wind gusts close to 40 mpg, trees down as well. This is my Mom's tree in Paramus, about 7 miles south of me.

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 17 Tree110

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 17 Tree210

Wow. In Wayne things for now seem ok. At least in my area. But flooding a concern today.

I grew up in Paramus. West side on Midland Ave.
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Post by brownie Wed Jan 10, 2024 11:03 am

It wasn’t that bad here.

It poured rain like crazy for a long time, but I never heard the wind howl.  Looking at the radar snapshot that was posted in this thread, it seems the northern part of the squall line dissipated before it hit my part of Morris County.  There are no new branches down.  The storm last month brought down a few, but nothing this time.

I found a very nearby weather station on that wunderground site (must be a neighbor!), and that station measured 3.57 inches of rain. That’s a lot of rain!  My snow is all gone, except for the piles where it was shoveled.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 10, 2024 11:30 am

Wind advisory issued till 8pm. Ironic winds are howling stronger than last night snd consistently. Whats the explanation for this? I know often the back end of storms hsve some wind but gusts to 50mph?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 10, 2024 11:33 am

Sat looks like a somewhat less potent system but this one busted very low in terms of winds (thats a good thing in most peoples minds) rainfall was more on point. My friend in CT near Norwich stated the river flooded so badly it flooded the stop shop and gym both are closed.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 10, 2024 11:42 am

Gfs has 975mb cutter fri night def looks like 2 inch rain plus and wind advisory winds. Will have wait see sr models but damn the kicks keep coming.

Nam 968mb cutter correct me but thats stronger than this one no? Ray had said 970mb i think.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 10, 2024 11:57 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 10, 2024 11:48 am

jmanley32 wrote:Wind advisory issued till 8pm. Ironic winds are howling stronger than last night snd consistently. Whats the explanation for this? I know often the back end of storms hsve some wind but gusts to 50mph?

Yesterdays winds were from the low level jet streak mixing down and today is because you have a deepening storm and a tightening pressure gradient. And Im not so sure Id call this wind forecast a bust just because there wasnt wide spread damage. Along he coastal plain and LI there was wide spread upper 40's and fifties, with isolated 60's and sporadic low 70's on the Jersey shore.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/windpns2.pdf

I dont think you understand what the watches and warnings mean for an area. Just because there is a designated area in a warning or watch zone doesnt mean that 100% of the designated area will experience those level winds. But NWS has to warn everyone in the area that its possible. Just like a snow total forecast there are always isolated areas of busts higher and lower. Its the nature of the game. I think NWS did a pretty decent job at highlighting areas that needed watches and warnings. I think achieving your wind expectations is for most instances unattainable Jon..lol

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 17 Pmsl

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 10, 2024 11:54 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wind advisory issued till 8pm. Ironic winds are howling stronger than last night snd consistently. Whats the explanation for this? I know often the back end of storms hsve some wind but gusts to 50mph?

Yesterdays winds were from the low level jet streak mixing down and today is because you have a deepening storm and a tightening pressure gradient.  And Im not so sure Id call this wind forecast a bust just because there wasnt wide spread damage.  Along he coastal plain and LI there was wide spread upper 40's and fifties, with isolated 60's and sporadic low 70's on the Jersey shore.  

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/windpns2.pdf

I dont think you understand what the watches and warnings mean for an area.  Just because there is a designated area in a warning or watch zone doesnt mean that 100% of the designated area will experience those level winds.  But NWS has to warn everyone in the area that its possible.  Just like a snow total forecast there are always isolated areas of busts higher and lower.  Its the nature of the game.   I think NWS did a pretty decent job at highlighting areas that needed watches and warnings.  I think achieving your wind expectations is for most instances unattainable Jon..lol

JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat - Page 17 Pmsl
yeah i was thinking sbout that and ur right doesnt mean it will happen everywhere but they did say wide sprwad outages which did not happen even i will say thank goodness. No they are attainable pretty impressed right now and theres more outages in my area now than last night. Last night confined to staten is. And queens. Did not know gusts hit 70 on shore. Impressive. Also to note it got wild for sbout 10 min last night with the squall. I guess my interest is in st longer duration which is go on now. Chilly too. Go figure.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:00 pm

Recorded 2.99" here and winds gust of low 40's on multiple.
Strongest winds were from about 9 - 11PM, 50' oak trees swaying like crazy. Have not seen that or heard the wind roar as such since Isaias and ......Sandy!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:30 pm

currently 49* down from a 57* high.. winds roaring at 21mph wsw we had a gust of 30 a bit ago..our rain total was 2.54 inches...bring on the SNOW..
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:35 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:currently 49* down from a 57* high.. winds roaring  at 21mph wsw we had a gust of 30 a bit ago..our rain total was 2.54 inches...bring on the SNOW..
slight chance of that on 16th, not fri/sat though thats another dismal cutter, originally it was looking possible it might not cut but its in close range now 48 hrs or so and its pretty set, intensity is kinda still in question, SR models appear to have it pretty strong.
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