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Long Range Thread 28.0

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by billg315 Sat Feb 10, 2024 7:01 am

Both the Euro and GFS present mixing issues for some spots. NAM since last night seems colder perhaps why it’s not showing mixing at end of its run (which is a few hours short of storm’s end).
One other word of caution: if you use the models’ Positive Snowdepth Change maps instead of the 10:1 maps, the totals are lighter (ie 4-8” vs some of the double digit totals you’re seeing above on Euro and only a 1-3” on GFS except north of NJ). Keep that in the back of your head.

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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 10, 2024 7:13 am

6z Euro now in. Not significantly different than 0z run from a quick glance. If anything a bit stronger on snow totals.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 10, 2024 7:30 am

2 key ingredients.

1/Track of the mid-levels and ULL. Keep mid-levels crossing around Cape May and then ENE. ULL over the Delmarva
2/Close off mid-levels as it passes east of Cape May

Get those 2 things to occur this will be 6" no problem. If not then several inches still possible but won't be sig IMO.

06Z GFS was late on maturing the mid-levels.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 10, 2024 7:43 am

heehaw453 wrote:2 key ingredients.

1/Track of the mid-levels and ULL. Keep mid-levels crossing around Cape May and then ENE. ULL over the Delmarva
2/Close off mid-levels as it passes east of Cape May

Get those 2 things to occur this will be 6" no problem. If not then several inches still possible but won't be sig IMO.

06Z GFS was late on maturing the mid-levels.

One is most important. The ULL is likely to close off well before it gets to us. This causes heights along the coast to get a little too amplified which initially warms our boundary layers. The lack of HP or 50/50 hurts us. But you have other features like a dual upper level jet structure and partial phasing with the northern branch that create those dynamics and bring the cold air in. It’s a delicate situation for the coast. N&W is in a prime spot IMO

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 10, 2024 7:46 am

I like having the RGEM (Canadian meso) where it is right now. That model is usually warm bias. It's showing a track very favorable with plenty of room for upside. Meaning there's plenty of wiggle room for northward movement if the storm is stronger. Honestly that might be the thing I'm most encouraged about with guidance right now.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 10, 2024 7:54 am

I will surprised if this makes a northerly jog last minute. This TPV is pushing down aggressively on the storm. The mesos are showing that both NAM/RGEM. It makes sense to me with active n/s and the EPO ridging. There's a lot of disturbance above us that the storm will want to avoid.

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by Irish Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:57 am

Irish wrote:So, I'm reading that we really need things to work out within the next 2 weeks in regard to winter weather, as the long range expected cold may not be materializing as hoped.  After the possibility of a Presidents' Day storm, we may be done and truly looking at an early spring.

Is the reverse psychology working yet?
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Post by Irish Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:46 am

The cooler solutions seem like they're winning out at this current time for Tuesday. Starting to get a bit more pumped for a snowier outcome Monday night into Tuesday...
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 10, 2024 11:00 am

heehaw453 wrote:2 key ingredients.

1/Track of the mid-levels and ULL. Keep mid-levels crossing around Cape May and then ENE. ULL over the Delmarva
2/Close off mid-levels as it passes east of Cape May

Get those 2 things to occur this will be 6" no problem. If not then several inches still possible but won't be sig IMO.

06Z GFS was late on maturing the mid-levels.

It's going to be boom or bust with this system. 1 and 2 will determine if/who gets the 6"+. And slight variations will make all the difference.

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 10, 2024 11:11 am

The GFS is being aggressive with the ULL as it hits the WV. That's critical because it would force the mid-levels to ride higher and then everything gets pulled north as does the southerly flow.

It's night and day with the Canadian GGEM with regard to the strength/maturity of the ULL.

The GFS has a mature ULL and the Canadian never gets there. All the difference. Caution is warranted regardless of what any model shows at 66 hours out. Boom or bust.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Gfs1100
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Ggem110

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Post by hyde345 Sat Feb 10, 2024 1:21 pm

Irish wrote:The cooler solutions seem like they're winning out at this current time for Tuesday.  Starting to get a bit more pumped for a snowier outcome Monday night into Tuesday...

Huh? The GFS, Euro, and ICON all ticked north. It's basically the GFS/EURO/ICON vs the CMC/Ukie/Nam.
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Post by Irish Sat Feb 10, 2024 1:40 pm

hyde345 wrote:
Irish wrote:The cooler solutions seem like they're winning out at this current time for Tuesday.  Starting to get a bit more pumped for a snowier outcome Monday night into Tuesday...

Huh? The GFS, Euro, and ICON all ticked north. It's basically the GFS/EURO/ICON vs the CMC/Ukie/Nam.
Just happened to see TWC forecast temps dropped and now show all snow versus a mix on Tuesday.
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Post by hyde345 Sat Feb 10, 2024 1:53 pm

Irish wrote:
hyde345 wrote:
Irish wrote:The cooler solutions seem like they're winning out at this current time for Tuesday.  Starting to get a bit more pumped for a snowier outcome Monday night into Tuesday...

Huh? The GFS, Euro, and ICON all ticked north. It's basically the GFS/EURO/ICON vs the CMC/Ukie/Nam.
Just happened to see TWC forecast temps dropped and now show all snow versus a mix on Tuesday.

That may change again.
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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by Irish Sat Feb 10, 2024 2:07 pm

hyde345 wrote:
Irish wrote:
hyde345 wrote:
Irish wrote:The cooler solutions seem like they're winning out at this current time for Tuesday.  Starting to get a bit more pumped for a snowier outcome Monday night into Tuesday...

Huh? The GFS, Euro, and ICON all ticked north. It's basically the GFS/EURO/ICON vs the CMC/Ukie/Nam.
Just happened to see TWC forecast temps dropped and now show all snow versus a mix on Tuesday.

That may change again.
I'm sure it will with it only being Saturday and the storm coming through on Monday night.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Feb 10, 2024 4:42 pm

You can all continue this discussion on the new thread made for this week... I keep thinking someone saw something for down the road tongue

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Post by Irish Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:43 pm

https://x.com/SoApps1979/status/1756425377335874039?s=20
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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 11, 2024 7:58 am

Dunnzoo wrote:You can all continue this discussion on the new thread made for this week...  I keep thinking someone saw something for down the road tongue

Speaking of something down the road looks like 17th-20th is next period to monitor.  This has the look of a big storm with -EPO, -AO, and -NAO look. It’s 200+ hrs out so time for evolution.  All we look for at the range is pattern recognition.  This look here is definitely conducive to a big winter storm.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Img_7511

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by SENJsnowman Tue Feb 13, 2024 1:42 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:You can all continue this discussion on the new thread made for this week...  I keep thinking someone saw something for down the road tongue

Speaking of something down the road looks like 17th-20th is next period to monitor.  This has the look of a big storm with -EPO, -AO, and -NAO look. It’s 200+ hrs out so time for evolution.  All we look for at the range is pattern recognition.  This look here is definitely conducive to a big winter storm.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Img_7511

Alright, that was fun!! Now, how’s the weekend looking? What a Face

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Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

Post by amugs Tue Feb 13, 2024 1:52 pm

MJO in phase 8  for the 15-17th signals are there

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Screenshot_2024_02_13_at_10_17_10_AM

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Post by Irish Tue Feb 13, 2024 2:21 pm

Looks like the 16th into the 17th might be our next shot.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 13, 2024 2:23 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:You can all continue this discussion on the new thread made for this week...  I keep thinking someone saw something for down the road tongue

Speaking of something down the road looks like 17th-20th is next period to monitor.  This has the look of a big storm with -EPO, -AO, and -NAO look. It’s 200+ hrs out so time for evolution.  All we look for at the range is pattern recognition.  This look here is definitely conducive to a big winter storm.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Img_7511

Start a thread, you're our hot hand LOL.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 13, 2024 2:53 pm

I'll be travelling over President's Day weekend so count on snow. Definitely want to cash in with this pattern and it might continue with a clipper on Thursday night. Anyone that thinks that clipper is harmless and passes well north have a look at the Atlantic and think again. MUCH better airmass for coastal plain folks. You will be trying to cash in on on each wave with this pattern. Now is the time for GREED. Go big or go home.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Euro156

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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Feb 13, 2024 3:00 pm

heehaw453 wrote:I'll be travelling over President's Day weekend so count on snow. Definitely want to cash in with this pattern and it might continue with a clipper on Thursday night. Anyone that thinks that clipper is harmless and passes well north have a look at the Atlantic and think again. MUCH better airmass for coastal plain folks. You will be trying to cash in on on each wave with this pattern. Now is the time for GREED. Go big or go home.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Euro156

Well, if that update don’t get a snow-loving Coastie all in the Valentine’s Day mood, nothing will!!
😍🥰I love you😍🥰

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Post by Irish Tue Feb 13, 2024 3:02 pm

heehaw453 wrote:I'll be travelling over President's Day weekend so count on snow. Definitely want to cash in with this pattern and it might continue with a clipper on Thursday night. Anyone that thinks that clipper is harmless and passes well north have a look at the Atlantic and think again. MUCH better airmass for coastal plain folks. You will be trying to cash in on on each wave with this pattern. Now is the time for GREED. Go big or go home.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Euro156
Other than you mentioning it, I haven't seen anything for Thursday night.  

Thoughts for the Friday into Saturday system?
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 13, 2024 3:11 pm

Irish wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:I'll be travelling over President's Day weekend so count on snow. Definitely want to cash in with this pattern and it might continue with a clipper on Thursday night. Anyone that thinks that clipper is harmless and passes well north have a look at the Atlantic and think again. MUCH better airmass for coastal plain folks. You will be trying to cash in on on each wave with this pattern. Now is the time for GREED. Go big or go home.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Euro156
Other than you mentioning it, I haven't seen anything for Thursday night.  

Thoughts for the Friday into Saturday system?

A relaxing NAM state should pique interest. We see times when the AO/NAO start relaxing that s/w's can lift further north and strengthen.

What stands out to me is the n/s activeness and a southern stream underneath it. Look at the TPV in Hudson Bay dropping energy on a very steep ridge. If you time that right big snowstorm right to the coast.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Eps101

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Post by Irish Tue Feb 13, 2024 3:27 pm

Anybody know rb personally? He has gone radio silent for a bit now. He didn't check in once leading up to this last storm.
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:53 pm

This really mucked up our winter and possibly late hurrah the models were o gung ho on showing end of Jan and early Feb for teh upcoming period. These are phase 4 in MJO and these waters are not cooling which should be in this Nino base state but is anything going to plan this winter?? Latest LR model show the western trough coming back into Alaska which would end this winter so lets get what we can as Heehaw pointed thee next two weeks.
Look at these hot spots off New Zealand and Eastern Australia. 3C above normal!! What's causing it?? Underwater Volcanoes some have surmised and it is a very plausible answer for how warm and fast it has become since September.
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 12 Screenshot_2024_02_13_at_1_56_43_PM

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