Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

[billg315]

Both the Euro and GFS present mixing issues for some spots. NAM since last night seems colder perhaps why it’s not showing mixing at end of its run (which is a few hours short of storm’s end).
One other word of caution: if you use the models’ Positive Snowdepth Change maps instead of the 10:1 maps, the totals are lighter (ie 4-8” vs some of the double digit totals you’re seeing above on Euro and only a 1-3” on GFS except north of NJ). Keep that in the back of your head.

[billg315]

6z Euro now in. Not significantly different than 0z run from a quick glance. If anything a bit stronger on snow totals.

[heehaw453]

2 key ingredients.

1/Track of the mid-levels and ULL. Keep mid-levels crossing around Cape May and then ENE. ULL over the Delmarva
2/Close off mid-levels as it passes east of Cape May

Get those 2 things to occur this will be 6" no problem. If not then several inches still possible but won't be sig IMO.

06Z GFS was late on maturing the mid-levels.

[Frank_Wx]

2 key ingredients.

1/Track of the mid-levels and ULL. Keep mid-levels crossing around Cape May and then ENE. ULL over the Delmarva
2/Close off mid-levels as it passes east of Cape May

Get those 2 things to occur this will be 6" no problem. If not then several inches still possible but won't be sig IMO.

06Z GFS was late on maturing the mid-levels.

One is most important. The ULL is likely to close off well before it gets to us. This causes heights along the coast to get a little too amplified which initially warms our boundary layers. The lack of HP or 50/50 hurts us. But you have other features like a dual upper level jet structure and partial phasing with the northern branch that create those dynamics and bring the cold air in. It’s a delicate situation for the coast. N&W is in a prime spot IMO

[heehaw453]

I like having the RGEM (Canadian meso) where it is right now. That model is usually warm bias. It's showing a track very favorable with plenty of room for upside. Meaning there's plenty of wiggle room for northward movement if the storm is stronger. Honestly that might be the thing I'm most encouraged about with guidance right now.

[heehaw453]

I will surprised if this makes a northerly jog last minute. This TPV is pushing down aggressively on the storm. The mesos are showing that both NAM/RGEM. It makes sense to me with active n/s and the EPO ridging. There's a lot of disturbance above us that the storm will want to avoid.

[Irish]

So, I'm reading that we really need things to work out within the next 2 weeks in regard to winter weather, as the long range expected cold may not be materializing as hoped.  After the possibility of a Presidents' Day storm, we may be done and truly looking at an early spring.

Is the reverse psychology working yet?

[Irish]

The cooler solutions seem like they're winning out at this current time for Tuesday. Starting to get a bit more pumped for a snowier outcome Monday night into Tuesday...

[heehaw453]

2 key ingredients.

1/Track of the mid-levels and ULL. Keep mid-levels crossing around Cape May and then ENE. ULL over the Delmarva
2/Close off mid-levels as it passes east of Cape May

Get those 2 things to occur this will be 6" no problem. If not then several inches still possible but won't be sig IMO.

06Z GFS was late on maturing the mid-levels.

It's going to be boom or bust with this system. 1 and 2 will determine if/who gets the 6"+. And slight variations will make all the difference.

[heehaw453]

The GFS is being aggressive with the ULL as it hits the WV. That's critical because it would force the mid-levels to ride higher and then everything gets pulled north as does the southerly flow.

It's night and day with the Canadian GGEM with regard to the strength/maturity of the ULL.

The GFS has a mature ULL and the Canadian never gets there. All the difference. Caution is warranted regardless of what any model shows at 66 hours out. Boom or bust.

[hyde345]

The cooler solutions seem like they're winning out at this current time for Tuesday.  Starting to get a bit more pumped for a snowier outcome Monday night into Tuesday...

Huh? The GFS, Euro, and ICON all ticked north. It's basically the GFS/EURO/ICON vs the CMC/Ukie/Nam.

[Irish]

The cooler solutions seem like they're winning out at this current time for Tuesday.  Starting to get a bit more pumped for a snowier outcome Monday night into Tuesday...

Huh? The GFS, Euro, and ICON all ticked north. It's basically the GFS/EURO/ICON vs the CMC/Ukie/Nam.

Just happened to see TWC forecast temps dropped and now show all snow versus a mix on Tuesday.

[hyde345]

The cooler solutions seem like they're winning out at this current time for Tuesday.  Starting to get a bit more pumped for a snowier outcome Monday night into Tuesday...

Huh? The GFS, Euro, and ICON all ticked north. It's basically the GFS/EURO/ICON vs the CMC/Ukie/Nam.

Just happened to see TWC forecast temps dropped and now show all snow versus a mix on Tuesday.

That may change again.

[Irish]

The cooler solutions seem like they're winning out at this current time for Tuesday.  Starting to get a bit more pumped for a snowier outcome Monday night into Tuesday...

Huh? The GFS, Euro, and ICON all ticked north. It's basically the GFS/EURO/ICON vs the CMC/Ukie/Nam.

Just happened to see TWC forecast temps dropped and now show all snow versus a mix on Tuesday.

That may change again.

I'm sure it will with it only being Saturday and the storm coming through on Monday night.

[Dunnzoo]

You can all continue this discussion on the new thread made for this week... I keep thinking someone saw something for down the road

[Irish]

https://x.com/SoApps1979/status/1756425377335874039?s=20

[sroc4]

You can all continue this discussion on the new thread made for this week...  I keep thinking someone saw something for down the road

Speaking of something down the road looks like 17th-20th is next period to monitor.  This has the look of a big storm with -EPO, -AO, and -NAO look. It’s 200+ hrs out so time for evolution.  All we look for at the range is pattern recognition.  This look here is definitely conducive to a big winter storm.

[SENJsnowman]

You can all continue this discussion on the new thread made for this week...  I keep thinking someone saw something for down the road

Speaking of something down the road looks like 17th-20th is next period to monitor.  This has the look of a big storm with -EPO, -AO, and -NAO look. It’s 200+ hrs out so time for evolution.  All we look for at the range is pattern recognition.  This look here is definitely conducive to a big winter storm.

Alright, that was fun!! Now, how’s the weekend looking?

[amugs]

MJO in phase 8  for the 15-17th signals are there

[Irish]

Looks like the 16th into the 17th might be our next shot.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

You can all continue this discussion on the new thread made for this week...  I keep thinking someone saw something for down the road

Speaking of something down the road looks like 17th-20th is next period to monitor.  This has the look of a big storm with -EPO, -AO, and -NAO look. It’s 200+ hrs out so time for evolution.  All we look for at the range is pattern recognition.  This look here is definitely conducive to a big winter storm.

Start a thread, you're our hot hand LOL.

[heehaw453]

I'll be travelling over President's Day weekend so count on snow. Definitely want to cash in with this pattern and it might continue with a clipper on Thursday night. Anyone that thinks that clipper is harmless and passes well north have a look at the Atlantic and think again. MUCH better airmass for coastal plain folks. You will be trying to cash in on on each wave with this pattern. Now is the time for GREED. Go big or go home.

[SENJsnowman]

I'll be travelling over President's Day weekend so count on snow. Definitely want to cash in with this pattern and it might continue with a clipper on Thursday night. Anyone that thinks that clipper is harmless and passes well north have a look at the Atlantic and think again. MUCH better airmass for coastal plain folks. You will be trying to cash in on on each wave with this pattern. Now is the time for GREED. Go big or go home.

Well, if that update don’t get a snow-loving Coastie all in the Valentine’s Day mood, nothing will!!
🥰🥰

[Irish]

I'll be travelling over President's Day weekend so count on snow. Definitely want to cash in with this pattern and it might continue with a clipper on Thursday night. Anyone that thinks that clipper is harmless and passes well north have a look at the Atlantic and think again. MUCH better airmass for coastal plain folks. You will be trying to cash in on on each wave with this pattern. Now is the time for GREED. Go big or go home.

Other than you mentioning it, I haven't seen anything for Thursday night.  

Thoughts for the Friday into Saturday system?

[heehaw453]

I'll be travelling over President's Day weekend so count on snow. Definitely want to cash in with this pattern and it might continue with a clipper on Thursday night. Anyone that thinks that clipper is harmless and passes well north have a look at the Atlantic and think again. MUCH better airmass for coastal plain folks. You will be trying to cash in on on each wave with this pattern. Now is the time for GREED. Go big or go home.

Other than you mentioning it, I haven't seen anything for Thursday night.  

Thoughts for the Friday into Saturday system?

A relaxing NAM state should pique interest. We see times when the AO/NAO start relaxing that s/w's can lift further north and strengthen.

What stands out to me is the n/s activeness and a southern stream underneath it. Look at the TPV in Hudson Bay dropping energy on a very steep ridge. If you time that right big snowstorm right to the coast.

[Irish]

Anybody know rb personally? He has gone radio silent for a bit now. He didn't check in once leading up to this last storm.

[amugs]

This really mucked up our winter and possibly late hurrah the models were o gung ho on showing end of Jan and early Feb for teh upcoming period. These are phase 4 in MJO and these waters are not cooling which should be in this Nino base state but is anything going to plan this winter?? Latest LR model show the western trough coming back into Alaska which would end this winter so lets get what we can as Heehaw pointed thee next two weeks.
Look at these hot spots off New Zealand and Eastern Australia. 3C above normal!! What's causing it?? Underwater Volcanoes some have surmised and it is a very plausible answer for how warm and fast it has become since September.

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