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Long Range Thread 28.0

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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 09, 2024 7:15 pm

18z GFS didn't change much from earlier. Maybe a tick south again if anything. The Euro and GFS have pretty much settled in for the last 24 hours with the Euro just a bit more north and a little less snowy than the GFS. At this point I'm anxious to see how the NAM weighs in tomorrow and Sunday.

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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 09, 2024 7:45 pm

heehaw453 wrote:The other thing too to point out. A bad track will mix. I don't care what the antecedent air mass is. What a good high pressure does (which we don't have here) is create a bit more resistance. But a too amped up low pressure will cut it through it like butter at the mid-levels. It always track first then everything else IMO. No difference here.

Agree with this 100%. I've been meaning to comment on this earlier today in a slightly different context but closely related. I think it's important for folks to understand that most of these close-call winter storms are heavily track-driven rather than solely temperature regime driven. So you can't solely look at the temperatures the day before, or the forecast temperature in a model that shows rain at that moment and say it will be "too warm for snow," etc etc. because the right track and right dynamics very often create their own cold air in most of these storms. If you are seeing warm forecast temps in your forecast app, it's usually because the model is at that time anticipating a warm-favoring storm TRACK/DYNAMICS.  You will notice the forecast temp on your app will change to colder temps if the models start to show the storm track/dynamics changing.

For example: If a storm cuts to our west, or directly over us, more often than not it's going to be rain (or snow to mix to rain) even if cold air is in place. If it's to our south and east and a cold air source is available, more often than not someone is getting some snow even if its warm the day before. Usually, IMO, especially in the heart of winter, the storm determines the temperature more than the temperature determining the storm. This is how in March you can get a 55 degree day followed by a blizzard the next day.

Now there are exceptions to every rule, and there are absolutely times where a warm antecedent air mass will make it harder to get snow (especially in over-running events, or with weaker storm systems, or borderline storm tracks) so I don't discount the value of having cold air in place. Trust me, I'd rather have cold air in place AND a good track.

But more often than not I'd rather have a good track with marginal temperatures at the start than a bad track with colder temps at the start.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Feb 09, 2024 8:03 pm

billg315 wrote:Lol. Wow. Didn't bother to read the article. Any use of the word "snowmageddon" (which probably shouldn't be used in any storm/pattern as it's rather silly) with this storm or this pattern is laughable.
As I said earlier today, I'll be happy to get a few inches out of this storm. Thrilled if more, not shocked if less. Beyond that, while there is some cold air coming, I don't see any signs (yet) of any blockbuster storms in the next week or so.

I laughed 🤣😂 what the heck..is there an over abundance of salt, shovels and food in the stores needing to be sold..lol
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 09, 2024 8:44 pm

18Z Euro control. This is essentially similar to the operational. This track would be very favorable for the I95 TTN to NYC. It's literally going to come down to exactly how strong the storm is as it makes it's transfer. Weaker approach it's southerly flow ahead is muted. Strong it's enhanced. But what i continue to notice it's the confluence, but what adds to the transfer is the n/s acting as a kicker. That's why it moves so quickly ENE. The bottom gif it's almost like a pool stick hitting a ball.




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Post by MattyICE Fri Feb 09, 2024 9:52 pm

The Goldilocks solution would be where we continue to amp the shortwave but simultaneously continue to trend positively with more of a confluence press from the lead/northern stream short wave. That would not do a ton to slow this storm down but it would really enhance precip on that zone where the squeeze is strongest. No idea where that happens but I don’t think this thing gains a ton of latitude and where this zone sets up some impressive lift and associated rates easily overcome the less than stellar antecedent air mass.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:04 pm

[url=https://servimg.com/view/19315894/230]Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 41a7f010[/url.                                              
Euro control run is a huge hit.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:18 pm

The 00Z RGEM soundings for MBY look nice. Mid-levels are pretty cold. Hopefully meso's can trend cold.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Rgem26
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Rgem210

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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:20 pm

NAM not fully in-range yet, but if I had to bet based on what I see in the 0z run, once we get it in range tomorrow AM it is going to be leaning toward a cold and snowy output. At least in the early runs tomorrow. I like the Low placement and temp profiles in the 0z.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:21 pm

billg315 wrote:NAM not fully in-range yet, but if I had to bet based on what I see in the 0z run, once we get it in range tomorrow AM it is going to be leaning toward a cold and snowy output. At least in the early runs tomorrow. I like the Low placement and temp profiles in the 0z.

Agree. I like seeing 00Z RGEM on the colder side too. If we can hold that meso I'd be encouraged for a decent thermal profile.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:32 pm

NWS went colder up by me in LHV now all snow Monday night to 1 pm Tuesday.Things getting interesting!!
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:48 pm

RGEM resembles the NAM. Low transfers off the VA Capes!
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:56 pm

00z GFS coming in…

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:57 pm

Very very wet storm on the GFS. Causes it to be a little too warm. Big hit N&W

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Img_7012
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Img_7013

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:01 pm

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Img_7014

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:10 pm

CMC is a crusher!
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:14 pm

Ratios could be > 10:1 NW of I95 if the storm deepens and track is far enough SE.

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Gfssou10

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Img_7014


That map will break CP's radio silence.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:15 pm

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 16614310
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:16 pm

This is enticing to bite onto but Ima hold for now, even the 00z GFS was decent for IMBY verbatim, a 6 inche storm would be great the Euro above would be incredible and would make up for the past 2 years!
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:21 pm

Things just far enough away still to pause but check out this dual jet streak structure. It’s textbook. This is why the gfs is such a bomb. Showing up on the cmc too. Def interesting

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Img_7510

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:29 pm

sroc4 wrote:Things just far enough away still to pause but check out this dual jet streak structure. It’s textbook. This is why the gfs is such a bomb. Showing up on the cmc too. Def interesting

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Img_7510
I know it is still to far off scott but what do you think the nyc metro area sees a big snowstorm? More specifically how much is the warm ground and lack of leading up cold going to put a possible damper on this for me and many others?
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:30 pm

sroc4 wrote:Things just far enough away still to pause but check out this dual jet streak structure. It’s textbook. This is why the gfs is such a bomb. Showing up on the cmc too. Def interesting

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Img_7510

Yes. That's why the h5 -EPO had me excited. That AK ridge facilitates that extra energy coming down the slide. It's just a matter of keeping it at the right latitude. The h5 is aligned well for a decent event in many facets. But still need that luck to make the magic happen. Still on the fence personally.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Feb 10, 2024 5:47 am

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Sn10_a18
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Feb 10, 2024 6:22 am

Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Sn10_a19
6z GFS is a tick colder…
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 10, 2024 6:52 am

Morning roundup:
6z NAM just coming into range so these totals are cut short as we don’t have full storm output:
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Img_2931
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Img_2930

6z GFS is not as good as last night but still generally in the same spot:
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Img_2933
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Img_2932

0z Euro (ironically after being way north 3 days ago has come so far south it now brings heaviest snow a bit further south than the GFS:
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Img_2935
Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 11 Img_2934
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 10, 2024 7:01 am

Both the Euro and GFS present mixing issues for some spots. NAM since last night seems colder perhaps why it’s not showing mixing at end of its run (which is a few hours short of storm’s end).
One other word of caution: if you use the models’ Positive Snowdepth Change maps instead of the 10:1 maps, the totals are lighter (ie 4-8” vs some of the double digit totals you’re seeing above on Euro and only a 1-3” on GFS except north of NJ). Keep that in the back of your head.
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Post by billg315 Sat Feb 10, 2024 7:13 am

6z Euro now in. Not significantly different than 0z run from a quick glance. If anything a bit stronger on snow totals.
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