Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

by **frank 638** Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:49 am

Lightly snowing and sleeting roads are getting slushy

by silentwreck Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:50 am

Officially snowing in NYC, everything is getting covered!

by **billg315** Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:51 am

Approx location of 850 line. This continues moving south over the next couple hours. It is about where it was forecast to be, maybe even a bit south, at this time.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Img_2950

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:58 am

Latest GFS 06Z Run. Im hoping to get 4-6" out of this. Love that it shows a almost a foot, but 4-6" is where my head is at. Real sharp cut offs for I84.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Gfs208

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:00 am

billg315 wrote:Approx location of 850 line. This continues moving south over the next couple hours. It is about where it was forecast to be, maybe even a bit south, at this time.

Bill that radar is dead on accurate. Can you provide url? thanks!

by **billg315** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:01 am

I agree heehaw. 4” imby would be a double into the gap. 6” a home run. Anything over 8” and this storm is a grand slam (and a coup for the GFS lol).

by **billg315** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 am

It is the RadarScope app. Precip Depiction setting.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:05 am

30.6 here and heavy snow. Did not expect to wake up and see this. The power of lowered or in this case almost no expectations.

Haven't gone out to measure but grass completely covered and plow just went through. Eyeballing, as Doc would say, at least 2.5 inches so far. I'm about 12 miles south of 84 so not sure how sharp the cutoff is there. Looks to be snowing at a fair clip all the way up to Poughkeepsie on radar.

by **Irish** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:05 am

heehaw453 wrote:Latest GFS 06Z Run. Im hoping to get 4-6" out of this. Love that it shows a almost a foot, but 4-6" is where my head is at. Real sharp cut offs for I84.

Incredible that it still shows my area with a foot. The next 7 hours must really get going or this is gonna bust for this area. I'm reading some up north already have 3 inches on the ground. Very nice!

by **billg315** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:14 am

I still think GFS is overdone - maybe by a few inches in the max areas. But if this really did achieve 1-2” per hour rates, would only take 4 hours of that heavy snow (which we may get from 7-11 am) to get 4-8” on top of whatever comes before or after that.

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:15 am

Heavy snow 31.8 about 1/2" OTG.

It's a good sign when the scope of WSW's increases in the AM update.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Weathe12

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:23 am

I'm a big fan of this signature on the h5 trough. That's going to push in a lot of instability inland.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 H5trou11

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:24 am

30.4° and snowing moderately here 12 miles south if I84. Intensity down in the last 15 minutes.

4.0 inches officially as of 5:15 am. Don't know what happened between midnight and five but wish I'd been up to see it. This has already exceeded my greatly lowered expectations from last night. Plows already been through and street covered again.

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:28 am

Dropped to 31.5 with heavy snow. I expected to have to fight above freezing surface temps. Pleasantly surprised

by **billg315** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:32 am

heehaw453 wrote:Dropped to 31.5 with heavy snow. I expected to have to fight above freezing surface temps. Pleasantly surprised

Same here. Thought at 5 am I’d wake up to 34* wet pavement and light snow. Instead 32* moderate snow and everything is snow covered.

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:34 am

There are times when the antecedent air mass is less important and less need for the big banana H which I usually look for to get sig snow. Track and n/s interaction can compensate for that and this case looks to be doing so.

by Carvin Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:41 am

Gonna have to snow very hard in next five hours for Brooklyn my to get 3”this storm is fast

by **phil155** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:42 am

Snow and sleet here in middlesex county, everything is covered with an icy snowy mix. If this does change to heavy snow as expected the roads will be a disaster

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:43 am

Surface low 992mb on the Delmarva. Deepening rapidly.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Mslp12

by **mmanisca** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:48 am

Deer Park
33 with some light snow and sleet. A light coating on the grass and cars..

by **Irish** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:49 am

phil155 wrote:Snow and sleet here in middlesex county, everything is covered with an icy snowy mix. If this does change to heavy snow as expected the roads will be a disaster

They just closed schools for the day in Edison.

by **billg315** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:49 am

heehaw453 wrote:Surface low 992mb on the Delmarva. Deepening rapidly.

This is good placement for us. Probably explains a bit why the cold air has intruded a little faster than expected.

by **billg315** Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:57 am

The wind direction around that Low due to its placement is NNE. That can’t be underestimated either.
31* here, moderate Snow, NNE wind 10 mph, gusts 21mph.

by **heehaw453** Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:01 am

Radar is impressive and expansive with this system.

Heavy snow 31.2/31.0 winds gusting to 25 maybe 30 mph. Have to measure but approaching 1.5" seems reasonable.

It's going to probably look blizzard like at times as this storm cranks.

by **phil155** Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:07 am

Irish wrote:
phil155 wrote:Snow and sleet here in middlesex county, everything is covered with an icy snowy mix. If this does change to heavy snow as expected the roads will be a disaster
They just closed schools for the day in Edison.

All snow now

by **docstox12** Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:08 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:30.4° and snowing moderately here 12 miles south if I84. Intensity down in the last 15 minutes.

4.0 inches officially as of 5:15 am. Don't know what happened between midnight and five but wish I'd been up to see it. This has already exceeded my greatly lowered expectations from last night. Plows already been through and street covered again.

Same here CP, 4 inches, 30 degrees moderate snow.I had the call of nature around 3:45 and there was an eyeballed 1 1/2 inches OTG then so must have started around 2 am.Sure looked like we were going to be scrooed on this yesterday with the rapid southern shifting.So, with that being said:

Snowstorm check on nowcast day:
1) Is there snow on the ground? Yes, 4 inches CHECK
2) Does the radar look juicy? At least 4 or 5 hours of 1/2 plus per hour rate CHECK
3)Cold weather for a week ahead for a good snowpack and a refresh Clipper or two? CHECK
Let's see if we can get to 6 , a victory for us considering the dire straits of yesterday.

Hope the South and East crew get their 8 plus radar looks very good for them as well.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:16 am

This storm has become a forecasting nightmare. Just when it looked like we were going to have an under performer with all the cutbacks on snow totals yesterday afternoon/evening, lo and behold the storm has seemingly done a head fake and the meso models have been bumping north overnight. Quicker closure of the ULL and negative tilt of the trough can work wonders.

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