NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

+40
hyde345
richb521
SENJsnowman
tomsriversnowstorm
jimv45
WeatherBob
MattyICE
DAYBLAZER
dkodgis
crippo84
jurzdevil
nutleyblizzard
phil155
Coachgriff
Carvin
1190ftalt
silentwreck
emokid51783
NJBear
Dunnzoo
2004blackwrx
brownie
weatherwatchermom
snowday111
billg315
DWay
sroc4
Irish
essexcountypete
GreyBeard
frank 638
Goalscore1
mmanisca
heehaw453
amugs
CPcantmeasuresnow
aiannone
jmanley32
docstox12
Frank_Wx
44 posters

Page 6 of 15 Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 10 ... 15  Next

Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by frank 638 Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:49 am

Lightly snowing and sleeting roads are getting slushy

frank 638
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2834
Join date : 2016-01-01

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by silentwreck Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:50 am

Officially snowing in NYC, everything is getting covered!

silentwreck

Posts : 45
Join date : 2023-12-18

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by billg315 Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:51 am

Approx location of 850 line. This continues moving south over the next couple hours. It is about where it was forecast to be, maybe even a bit south, at this time.
FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Img_2950
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Irish likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:58 am

Latest GFS 06Z Run. Im hoping to get 4-6" out of this. Love that it shows a almost a foot, but 4-6" is where my head is at. Real sharp cut offs for I84.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Gfs208

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

silentwreck likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:00 am

billg315 wrote:Approx location of 850 line. This continues moving south over the next couple hours. It is about where it was forecast to be, maybe even a bit south, at this time.
FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Img_2950

Bill that radar is dead on accurate. Can you provide url? thanks!

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by billg315 Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:01 am

I agree heehaw. 4” imby would be a double into the gap. 6” a home run. Anything over 8” and this storm is a grand slam (and a coup for the GFS lol).
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

docstox12 and heehaw453 like this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by billg315 Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 am

It is the RadarScope app. Precip Depiction setting.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

heehaw453 likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:05 am

30.6 here and heavy snow. Did not expect to wake up and see this. The power of lowered or in this case almost no expectations.

Haven't gone out to measure but grass completely covered and plow just went through. Eyeballing, as Doc would say, at least 2.5 inches so far. I'm about 12 miles south of 84 so not sure how sharp the cutoff is there. Looks to be snowing at a fair clip all the way up to Poughkeepsie on radar.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

docstox12, heehaw453 and billg315 like this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Irish Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:05 am

heehaw453 wrote:Latest GFS 06Z Run. Im hoping to get 4-6" out of this.  Love that it shows a almost a foot, but 4-6" is where my head is at. Real sharp cut offs for I84.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Gfs208
Incredible that it still shows my area with a foot. The next 7 hours must really get going or this is gonna bust for this area. I'm reading some up north already have 3 inches on the ground. Very nice!
Irish
Irish
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by billg315 Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:14 am

I still think GFS is overdone - maybe by a few inches in the max areas. But if this really did achieve 1-2” per hour rates, would only take 4 hours of that heavy snow (which we may get from 7-11 am) to get 4-8” on top of whatever comes before or after that.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Irish likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:15 am

Heavy snow 31.8 about 1/2" OTG.

It's a good sign when the scope of WSW's increases in the AM update.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Weathe12

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Irish likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:23 am

I'm a big fan of this signature on the h5 trough. That's going to push in a lot of instability inland.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 H5trou11

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:24 am

30.4° and snowing moderately here 12 miles south if I84. Intensity down in the last 15 minutes.

4.0 inches officially as of 5:15 am. Don't know what happened between midnight and five but wish I'd been up to see it. This has already exceeded my greatly lowered expectations from last night. Plows already been through and street covered again.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

sroc4, docstox12, heehaw453, billg315 and Irish like this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:28 am

Dropped to 31.5 with heavy snow. I expected to have to fight above freezing surface temps. Pleasantly surprised

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by billg315 Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:32 am

heehaw453 wrote:Dropped to 31.5 with heavy snow. I expected to have to fight above freezing surface temps. Pleasantly surprised
Same here. Thought at 5 am I’d wake up to 34* wet pavement and light snow. Instead 32* moderate snow and everything is snow covered.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

docstox12 and heehaw453 like this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:34 am

There are times when the antecedent air mass is less important and less need for the big banana H which I usually look for to get sig snow. Track and n/s interaction can compensate for that and this case looks to be doing so.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Carvin Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:41 am

Gonna have to snow very hard in next five hours for Brooklyn my to get 3”this storm is fast

Carvin

Posts : 44
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2019-01-09

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by phil155 Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:42 am

Snow and sleet here in middlesex county, everything is covered with an icy snowy mix. If this does change to heavy snow as expected the roads will be a disaster

phil155
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 476
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:43 am

Surface low 992mb on the Delmarva. Deepening rapidly.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Mslp12

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by mmanisca Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:48 am

Deer Park
33 with some light snow and sleet. A light coating on the grass and cars..
mmanisca
mmanisca
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 299
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-23
Age : 65
Location : Deer Park, Long Island

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Irish Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:49 am

phil155 wrote:Snow and sleet here in middlesex county, everything is covered with an icy snowy mix. If this does change to heavy snow as expected  the roads will be a disaster
They just closed schools for the day in Edison.
Irish
Irish
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

phil155 likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by billg315 Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:49 am

heehaw453 wrote:Surface low 992mb on the Delmarva. Deepening rapidly.

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Mslp12
This is good placement for us. Probably explains a bit why the cold air has intruded a little faster than expected.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

heehaw453 likes this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by billg315 Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:57 am

The wind direction around that Low due to its placement is NNE. That can’t be underestimated either.
31* here, moderate Snow, NNE wind 10 mph, gusts 21mph.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

docstox12 and CPcantmeasuresnow like this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:01 am

Radar is impressive and expansive with this system.

Heavy snow 31.2/31.0 winds gusting to 25 maybe 30 mph. Have to measure but approaching 1.5" seems reasonable.

It's going to probably look blizzard like at times as this storm cranks.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

docstox12 and CPcantmeasuresnow like this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by phil155 Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:07 am

Irish wrote:
phil155 wrote:Snow and sleet here in middlesex county, everything is covered with an icy snowy mix. If this does change to heavy snow as expected  the roads will be a disaster
They just closed schools for the day in Edison.

All snow now

phil155
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 476
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16

docstox12 and Irish like this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:08 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:30.4° and snowing moderately here 12 miles south if I84. Intensity down in the last 15 minutes.

4.0 inches officially as of 5:15 am. Don't know what happened between midnight and five but wish I'd been up to see it. This has already exceeded my greatly lowered expectations from last night. Plows already been through and street covered again.

Same here CP, 4 inches, 30 degrees moderate snow.I had the call of nature around 3:45 and there was an eyeballed 1 1/2 inches OTG then so must have started around 2 am.Sure looked like we were going to be scrooed on this yesterday with the rapid southern shifting.So, with that being said:

Snowstorm check on nowcast day:
1) Is there snow on the ground? Yes, 4 inches CHECK
2) Does the radar look juicy? At least 4 or 5 hours of 1/2 plus per hour rate CHECK
3)Cold weather for a week ahead for a good snowpack and a refresh Clipper or two? CHECK
Let's see if we can get to 6 , a victory for us considering the dire straits of yesterday.

Hope the South and East crew get their 8 plus radar looks very good for them as well.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8516
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY

CPcantmeasuresnow, essexcountypete and billg315 like this post

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:16 am

This storm has become a forecasting nightmare. Just when it looked like we were going to have an under performer with all the cutbacks on snow totals yesterday afternoon/evening, lo and behold the storm has seemingly done a head fake and the meso models have been bumping north overnight. Quicker closure of the ULL and negative tilt of the trough can work wonders.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1953
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II - Page 6 Empty Re: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 15 Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 10 ... 15  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum