December 10th-11th "Sneaky" Storm

Some models, such as the GFS and the not-so reliable DGEX, are showing energy holding back from the 2nd wave storm on Monday in the southeast and develop another storm right off the Carolina's that could come up the coast (or go out to sea).

Here was the 18z GFS



There is some ridging in the west during this time, but the NAO remains positive and there is no High Placement to the north. So even if it does get here, it could fall as rain for the immediate coast but snow would be likely for areas along I-95.

Another storm to keep an eye on which is being slightly overshadowed because of the first 2 waves.

00z GFS has some snow, but it looks like the vort in the Great Lakes is trying to push this storm out

Current guidance suggests this wave will me a miss at the moment....

EURO just has some snow showers for Central NJ and points south in this time frame. Probably turning into a non-event for our area.

00z GFS has a good thump of snow back for this time period

When you least expect it sometimes:D Even the pro mets are hinting at the snow/rain (Mix) ending Tues afternoon from this mornings forecasts.

12z GFS still thinking snow...

6z GFS snow map for this storm

Snj and dc look to be this sweet spot for these storms so far! A jog north and we may see some up here.

Stuck in the middle again mugs! lol

Oh yeah - one day Zoo, ONE DAYYYYYY!!! It will be us getting crushed:D

12Z GFS  oh boy - don't count this one out just yet!

Feeling a lot better. The arctic snap this week isn't looking as tough as it was for most of the country. Or maybe it's just running a little late and will pick up next weekend. My friend from Kentucky sent me some picks and wow is all I have to say. And another friend of mine send me picks from Dallas Texas where it was colder and snowier lol.

HectorO wrote:Feeling a lot better. The arctic snap this week isn't looking as tough as it was for most of the country. Or maybe it's just running a little late and will pick up next weekend. My friend from Kentucky sent me some picks and wow is all I have to say. And another friend of mine send me picks from Dallas Texas where it was colder and snowier lol.

Hector,

Glad to hear you are feeling better. The arctic front will be strong but I do not know how strong you were thinking - teens for highs? It is showing 20's for highs over here and teens for lows Thurs through Sat but the models seem to behaving trouble with this air mass just like the last one - I think all these storms and cold air has the models" panties in a knot" since they had no action for months (like what we are seeing) !! It will be interesting to see how the models due after some snow is on the ground to the air passing over the snow pack(?) to our west. Enjoy the snow H!!

Mugs

 It would be nice  to see this little baby serve - translates into a few (3+) more inches. We shall see...

 I know we are in the middle of the 1st snow event of the season but this one is looking very interesting!!! The one you least expect ..............???

Sneaky indeed. I hope it comes to fruition.

I hear you Frank and I would like to see this on a few more runs -00Z tonight to make me think this is going to happen to some degree - from this map it looks like a 4"-6" widespread - sneaky little (not really if this occurs) bugger.

The sneaky storm is gaining some momentum here but we need a few more runs and some euro support - just like tonight and Friday's storm - CRAZY to call but fun!!

NAM goes BOOM

Shows 3-6 inches

Frank_Wx wrote:

NAM goes BOOM

Shows 3-6 inches

Frank, you should do a live chat for the 0Z GFS

Math23x7 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

NAM goes BOOM

Shows 3-6 inches

Frank, you should do a live chat for the 0Z GFS

You all can feel free and make a chat. I'm going to finish up on school work, and if by 12z's tomorrow models are still bullish, we will hold a chat tomorrow night around 9pm.

What do you guys think of this so far- The upper levels have been gradually improving.  That's why this event has improved on the progs. Gradually more PVA ahead of the trof leading to slightly more lift and surface deepening.  Nice to see the model progs starting to show precip breaking out in the MO Valley moving into the OH Valley on Tue morning.  I hope it's real.  I wouldn't disregard the 0z NAM based on pretty good support from recent cycles of the GEFS.  But we are probably looking at a relatively short duration event and the NAM is likely too wet.  However, this might not be done trending, and with cold temps and moderate precip intensities, things could look very wintry on Tuesday into Wed.

amugs wrote:What do you guys think of this so far- The upper levels have been gradually improving.  That's why this event has improved on the progs. Gradually more PVA ahead of the trof leading to slightly more lift and surface deepening.  Nice to see the model progs starting to show precip breaking out in the MO Valley moving into the OH Valley on Tue morning.  I hope it's real.  I wouldn't disregard the 0z NAM based on pretty good support from recent cycles of the GEFS.  But we are probably looking at a relatively short duration event and the NAM is likely too wet.  However, this might not be done trending, and with cold temps and moderate precip intensities, things could look very wintry on Tuesday into Wed.

Pretty much agree with that. If the surface low can trend stronger, we could see 1-2 inch snowfall rates out come Tuesday night with high ratios.