December 10th-11th "Sneaky" Storm

Wow im liking that abc 7 map im right in the middle of locally 6 inches on long island haha

EURO is only about .20 inches of qpf for the area with surface temps right at freezing. Pretty big contrast with other models, but it think at least 2 inches is certainly not out of the question.

Winter storm warnings issued for the philadelphia area and winter weather advisories elsewhere.

Warnings and watches have been posted

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Actually it is advisories and a winter storm warning for Philly Metro

Ok so why i don't i have a WWA here on LI. This makes no sense.

Upton will probably issue advisories in their next update for LI and north of NYC

Do you think there is a reason why they didn't now? Are they waiting to see some more guidance for some reason?

Alex They didnt extend the watches that far north and east but they will next advisory I did see one on iphone for 3-6 for Suffolk

Mets2695 wrote:Do you think there is a reason why they didn't now? Are they waiting to see some more guidance for some reason?

Alex here is the latest discussion from UPTON. This I suppose is the reason, but I think that if heavier bands set up it wont change over. We shall see.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY DAYBREAK...AND
THEN PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LONG ISLAND COAST...
TEMP PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW THROUGHOUT. IN TERMS OF LIQUID
QPF...MOST MODELS SUPPORT 1/4-1/3 INCH...BUT THE GFS HAS COME IN A
BIT HIGHER AND CLOSER TO 1/2 INCH. 1/2 INCH LIQUID QPF WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS...BUT WILL TREAT IT AS AN OUTLIER
AND SIDE WITH A NAM/SREF/ECMWF BLEND WITH THE LOWER QPF TOTALS.
THIS YIELDS 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR NYC/NE NJ/WESTERN LONG ISLAND
AND 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
AREAS EXPECTED TO GET 2-4 INCHES AND AN SPS FOR AREAS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO GET 1-3 INCHES. IF SNOW BANDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
ACROSS CT...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH WARMER AIR COMING OFF LI SOUND...NORTHERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND
THE TWIN FORKS MAY HAVE A CHANGE TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON...CUTTING
DOWN ON SNOWFALL TOTALS THERE. (Better Not!!!!!!)

Everyone go into the chat room located at the bottom of the home page

I like a 4-8 inch snowfall for long island.  3-6 nnj and less nw. ...expect a sharp cutoff

I agree with that. Hudson valley especially north of I84 will be lucky to see 2 inches out of this. I expect Orange county in the 1-3 inch range. Looks like we get shafted again, but its early in the season.

Pretty bullish there Ryan. Almost double of what I think. Lol.

@CP, I think I have you in 1-3 as well

Lee is on now

What he say? I missed it

What is Lee saying?

Frank_Wx wrote:What he say? I missed it

general 2-4 inches, but just south of NYC (including the south shore of LI, locally 6" amounts are possible

He shifted the heaviest band. Its now from Phili through northern ocean up to Monmouth. Has south shore of LI in the zone to and says bill might have to adjust LI in the morning giving most of LI 3-6

U know me. I'm usually a bit conservative unless I love the set up.   Idk I just think this thing rips for a good 4 hrs and put down some 6+ amounts in central or southern jersey and LI

Ps I dont love this set up I just have a feeling it over performs where the heaviest band sets up.