December 10th-11th "Sneaky" Storm

What do you guys think of this so far- The upper levels have been gradually improving.  That's why this event has improved on the progs. Gradually more PVA ahead of the trof leading to slightly more lift and surface deepening.  Nice to see the model progs starting to show precip breaking out in the MO Valley moving into the OH Valley on Tue morning.  I hope it's real.  I wouldn't disregard the 0z NAM based on pretty good support from recent cycles of the GEFS.  But we are probably looking at a relatively short duration event and the NAM is likely too wet.  However, this might not be done trending, and with cold temps and moderate precip intensities, things could look very wintry on Tuesday into Wed.

amugs wrote:What do you guys think of this so far- The upper levels have been gradually improving.  That's why this event has improved on the progs. Gradually more PVA ahead of the trof leading to slightly more lift and surface deepening.  Nice to see the model progs starting to show precip breaking out in the MO Valley moving into the OH Valley on Tue morning.  I hope it's real.  I wouldn't disregard the 0z NAM based on pretty good support from recent cycles of the GEFS.  But we are probably looking at a relatively short duration event and the NAM is likely too wet.  However, this might not be done trending, and with cold temps and moderate precip intensities, things could look very wintry on Tuesday into Wed.

Pretty much agree with that. If the surface low can trend stronger, we could see 1-2 inch snowfall rates out come Tuesday night with high ratios.

Surprise surprise??

amugs wrote:

HectorO wrote:Feeling a lot better. The arctic snap this week isn't looking as tough as it was for most of the country. Or maybe it's just running a little late and will pick up next weekend. My friend from Kentucky sent me some picks and wow is all I have to say. And another friend of mine send me picks from Dallas Texas where it was colder and snowier lol.

Hector,

Glad to hear you are feeling better. The arctic front will be strong but I do not know how strong you were thinking - teens for highs? It is showing 20's for highs over here and teens for lows Thurs through Sat but the models seem to behaving trouble with this air mass just like the last one - I think all these storms and cold air has the models" panties in a knot" since they had no action for months (like what we are seeing) !! It will be interesting to see how the models due after some snow is on the ground to the air passing over the snow pack(?) to our west. Enjoy the snow H!!

Mugs

Thanks, I wasn't expecting Alaska weather. high 20s for highs sounds about right. The arctic air over the midwest and much of the west (around Washington and Oregon) is giving them some record lows and highs. It seems to be filling in and making its way over here. The question is I wonder how long it will hover over us. I think its been stuck out west for about 2 weeks. Seattle has been seeing some pretty cold temps for 2 weeks. Also a funny thing about the link I'm about to post is my friends in FL lol. They keep complaining about how hot it is, and I must say, although it is Florida... They are seeing some pretty high temps. Northern Florida should be like 68 or so not 80. I lived in Jacksonville for a few years, but it looks like Thursday they should be getting cool for them.

00z GFS shows widespread 2-4 / 3-6 inch amounts

This mornings discussion from Upton.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRYING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. GRADUAL CAA EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE
WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN PLAYERS BEING A STRONG JET STREAK AHEAD OF A
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...INDUCING
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH.
THE AMOUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION...WHICH ALWAYS POSES SOME
PREDICTABILITY ISSUES...SEEMS TO BE A KEY IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH AND AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE THAT GETS ENTRAINED IN THE SW
FLOW AND OVER THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE
AMPLIFIED...AND THEREFORE WETTER ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE SIGNALING SOME GOOD FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND DEEP
LAYERED LIFT UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 175 KT JET STREAK.
SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...BUT BANDING
PLACEMENT WILL BE KEY. SPREAD EXISTS BETWEEN A SOLID ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...TO JUST A COATING TO 2 INCHES. WILL INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL BASED ON MODELS TRENDS...WITH A TREND TOWARDS
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR SNOWFALL.

I'm wondering about the timing for the Tuesday 12/10 event. Is it looking like Tuesday AM or Tuesday PM into Wednesday, or some combination thereof? My snow shovels are in place ready to go, just trying to figure out when I might be using them...

cooladi wrote:I'm wondering about the timing for the Tuesday 12/10 event.  Is it looking like Tuesday AM or Tuesday PM into Wednesday, or some combination thereof?  My snow shovels are in place ready to go, just trying to figure out when I might be using them...  

Early Tuesday afternoon ending around 10pm Tuesday. Short duration event.

Looks like another solid 2-4 inch event for most. Looks like like we will just have to watch the Hi-Res models to see if there might be a hint of more serious banding that might set up.

12z NAM coming in juiced

Hour 27



Hour 30

Hour 33



Winner winner...

Chicken dinner!

Will this storm effect NE PA. and how much are we talking about? If so when would it start in my area because I have physical therapy at 8:00am and an eye checkup at 10:00am. Just wondering if I should reschedule both. Thanks.

And I just realize I didn't even post the link. I'll do it when I get home.

SNOW MAN wrote:Will this storm effect NE PA. and how much are we talking about? If so when would it start in my area because I have physical therapy at 8:00am and an eye checkup at 10:00am. Just wondering if I should reschedule both. Thanks.

NEPA is probably in for 1-3, maybe 4 inches. Start time late morning to early afternoon. I would leave both appointments.

12z GFS is a big hit. 3-6 inches

Check that, GFS soundings show 4-8 inches of snow

NYC: .50"
BDR: .55"
ISP: .60"
EWR: .51"
ABE: .41"
PHL: .55:

Thanks Frank !

Nice Frank  Hope it holds

WSW's already being issued for Baltimore/Washington area.

Frank, do you have a link for forecast soundings? I just have one for current soundings....is there such a thing?

Looks like Hector may get this one on the contest thread....1st measurable snow >2 inches in CP tomorrow....

Dunnzoo wrote:Frank, do you have a link for forecast soundings? I just have one for current soundings....is there such a thing?

I took those soundings from another forum. But I think I have the link anyway. I'll look for it.

P.S.- snow map posted in a separate thread

Dunnzoo wrote:Looks like Hector may get this one on the contest thread....1st measurable snow >2 inches in CP tomorrow....

I suck.

Wow im liking that abc 7 map im right in the middle of locally 6 inches on long island haha

EURO is only about .20 inches of qpf for the area with surface temps right at freezing. Pretty big contrast with other models, but it think at least 2 inches is certainly not out of the question.