Re: January 21, 2014 Storm Obs. Thread

by **Dtone** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:33 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Some shore points really got a screw job, there was a dryslot that just never filled in for parts of the NJ shore, same thing killed totals further south in VA, MD, DE, areas like that from what I'm seeing on other forums. The nature of the banding caused a very tight gradient in NWNJ where few inches fell in Sussex County meanwhile in neighboring Morris county had upper single digits such as 8" I believe there was even a 9" report, not sure about double digits but it proves the point. Further north and further south of jackpot got the shaft, where the heaviest snow was forecasted was where it ended up with amounts in this zone being on target. Philly through Mercer county and parts of Monmouth did the best with amounts approaching 14"

Some of those mid Atlantic places have been on horrible streak snow wise. DC (as recorded at National Airport) hasn't had a 2" snowfall since 2011. A record long stretch for them. Any snow lover will take any accumulation they can get.

by **mako460** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:34 pm

Just one more hour please, i only need 1/2 inch to make 10, LOL.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:34 pm

I feel like the models always overdo backend snow and hold snow back much longer than it actually lasts, especially with these fast systems. This happened with the last few major storms I remember, storm ended at least 5 hours earlier then progged albeit not affecting totals much.

by **aiannone** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:34 pm

this end is like 4hrs ahead of schedule right?

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:35 pm

How the hell did that happen!? lol

by **Quietace** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:35 pm

Heavy snow again here.More banding to my south.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:35 pm

Yea, this is ending much sooner than expected. The low ended up staying too far south and east

by **Dtone** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:36 pm

oldtimer wrote:Its over in NYC big hole in radar It sure pull out faster than expected

Doesn't bode well for anyone hoping to not go to school or work. Its not even 10 yet. They will have all night to plow etc..

by **aiannone** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:37 pm

0Z NAM has precip over LI till 5-7am

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:38 pm

still heavy snow by me

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:38 pm

Dtone wrote:
oldtimer wrote:Its over in NYC big hole in radar It sure pull out faster than expected

Doesn't bode well for anyone hoping to not go to school or work. Its not even 10 yet. They will have all night to plow etc..

Lots of schools cancelled already in NJ

One last thing, the RAP model actually showed this "lull" with more snow for NYC/NE NJ/LI starting around midnight or 1am

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:39 pm

At least, last flakes essentially flown here, snow is down to flurries while the RAP showed light but consistent precip until around 12-1am for me, do the math of how wrong that is lol.

by **oldtimer** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:41 pm

Still coming down pretty good here

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:42 pm

Ya I see that snow is completely out of my area. Just very light leftovers now. Will be plenty of time to cleanup for tomorrow. Oh well NYC will prolly have school.

by **crippo84** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:43 pm

Even if this is ending we can't be but so upset with the much earlier than forecasted start time. As of now in Manhattan this is 14 hours of steady snow that will stick around for some time to come.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:43 pm

Mets2695 wrote:0Z NAM has precip over LI till 5-7am

Unless something crazy happens it's already wrong because as far as I can tell I will get absolutely 0 precip from here on out where the NAM shows a couple inches more. For the entire storm I've been reading reports of how it's been ending early and like I said it happens alot, IMO models lag a bit behind what is actually going on. I hate to break it to you but I don't think you'll have precip anywhere near 5-7am. This storm started early, so it makes sense it's ending early.

by **pdubz** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:44 pm

can someone explain how the band literally just evaporated it didn't even move offshore its just gone, even if dry air moved in wouldn't the heavy band hold its ground?

by **Dtone** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:46 pm

The suburban school districts always close easier. Unless some bands suddenly develop later tonight NYC any other larger urban districts will probably be open

by **Dtone** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:47 pm

still got around a foot so I'll take it.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:47 pm

pdubz wrote:can someone explain how the band literally just evaporated it didn't even move offshore its just gone, even if dry air moved in wouldn't the heavy band hold its ground?

The best lift is not northeast of the area and the surface low is way off to our south and east. Nowhere near the benchmark like some models had it yesterday

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:48 pm

Look at where the surface low is...

off the coast of NC

January 21, 2014 Storm Obs. Thread - Page 26 Pmsl

As it moves northeast, there may be some redevelopment tonight in coastal areas

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:49 pm

Dtone wrote:The suburban school districts always close easier. Unless some bands suddenly develop later tonight NYC any other larger urban districts will probably be open

Probably right

by **oldtimer** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:49 pm

Except for a few areas we did well with this storm it just seemed kinda weird to me tho

by **pdubz** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:49 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
pdubz wrote:can someone explain how the band literally just evaporated it didn't even move offshore its just gone, even if dry air moved in wouldn't the heavy band hold its ground?

The best lift is not northeast of the area and the surface low is way off to our south and east. Nowhere near the benchmark like some models had it yesterday

well at least this was a good storm and now on to Saturday-monday hopefully more! bounce

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:50 pm

Yeah its a wrap, im guessing I am around 10-12 inches. I'll take it! And I shoveled out not long ago so I do not have to go out again except for the plowby in the morning.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:51 pm

That is what I am thinking Frank. I think models focused too much on the redeveloping low which is strong MB wise but not much moisture.

SFC low
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-78.27,38.37,2501

UL Low
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17

Both will move ENE.

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