February 12th-14th Storm Potential

Oh my word! It sure did!

I was wait for you to say the word, looks like I stay just far enough morth of NYC to stay all snow, looking like 12-18+? I am on border of Bronx but as I have said befoire there is alkways a drastic difference from Bronx to where I live when storms hit.

nailed in Mid-Hudson valley!

WOW! that looks impressive. Ill be crossing my fingers to keep it all snow on north shore LI

Holy smokes, look like the rain does move in to my area, its marginal, so are we going with the CMC now? Snow map if you get time Frank I thought the other was the 12z that was the 00z?

Nailed all over from what I can see on the map! Some yes more than others but frank are you upping the title map if this trend continues?

Hey who didnt like my post, lol I was just stating what was showin on the map dang lost my reputation, I guess I will just stop talking.

Im so confused for me here everything all over the place Frank what do you see here for me and Ace

Cmc is mostly a rainstorm for the coast though. Any snow maps?

One more thing if my eyes dont decieve me does that say 971 mb?! WOW

Mets2695 wrote:Cmc is mostly a rainstorm for the coast though. Any snow maps?

No, there is at least 8-12 inches of snow that falls before it  changes to rain. Plus, I think the CMC closed off 500mb which means dynamics would argue for cold air to be pulled into the storm with a High to the north. I also think it's still too far west. Not seeing that kinda track.

skins me too.  Its just a waiting game, I am staying positive, meaning lots of snow : )

jmanley32 wrote:Nailed all over from what I can see on the map!  Some yes more than others but frank are you upping the title map if this trend continues?

I won't have a snow map until 4pm. I prefer people do not ask me about specific questions about their backyard just yet.

Thats whats confusing i keep hearing rain at the coast

CMC is well west, most of NJ goes over to rain.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Thats whats confusing i keep hearing rain at the coast

Different models show different things. Tracks are different, precip types, timing, etc...

This is why forecasters such as myself have to discount some models and forecast based on other variables.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Thats whats confusing i keep hearing rain at the coast

Def still a possibility skins, but trends today, at least so far seem to hint at a colder soln at the coast. Even if the 12z all seem colder there is still enough time for things to trend warmer at the coast again.

cant wait to see your map. You are the one I listen too

UKIE is still west of gfs/nam and has impressive ccb and banding along I95

NjWeatherGuy wrote:UKIE is still west of gfs/nam and has impressive ccb and banding along I95

It moved east from 00z run though

No problem I won't ask any other specific questions.

Is the HP in every model run to our north

Right now highest confidence for all snow is still only in nwnj, nepa and the hv

Jeff smith said they are pretty confidant about storm now mixing will be an issue along I-95 foot plus where I am.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Is the HP in every model run to our north

Pretty much. We just want the track of the storm to be a little further east, not inside the BM (west of it). The problem is, and I will explain more in my blog, that the cold air mass is not that impressive in the northeast as this storm comes to hit us. There is a split flow look to our pattern

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Nailed all over from what I can see on the map!  Some yes more than others but frank are you upping the title map if this trend continues?

I won't have a snow map until 4pm. I prefer people do not ask me about specific questions about their backyard just yet.

Agreed Frank. I have an idea, and i am fully aware that i am relatively new to posting on here but, how about we all let Frank and all the others on here who forecast and put up maps etc do what they do best..........forecast and monitor the activity. I am sure when there is a necessary update they will provide it. It has to be pretty annoying to be constantly bombarded with questions about one's specific area. Frank how much for my area? Do you think it will be all snow in my area? Will i get mixing? etc etc etc..... I know this is a forum for open discussion and everyone has the absolute right to discuss whatever they want but lets use some sense here too! When maps are ready they will be released, when updates are warranted they will be released. Ok i am done lol

deadrabbit79 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Nailed all over from what I can see on the map!  Some yes more than others but frank are you upping the title map if this trend continues?

I won't have a snow map until 4pm. I prefer people do not ask me about specific questions about their backyard just yet.

Agreed Frank.  I have an idea, and i am fully aware that i am relatively new to posting on here but, how about we all let Frank and all the others on here who forecast and put up maps etc do what they do best..........forecast and monitor the activity.  I am sure when there is a necessary update they will provide it.  It has to be pretty annoying to be constantly bombarded with questions about one's specific area.  Frank how much for my area?  Do you think it will be all snow in my area?  Will i get mixing?  etc etc etc.....  I know this is a forum for open discussion and everyone has the absolute right to discuss whatever they want but lets use some sense here too!  When maps are ready they will be released, when updates are warranted they will be released.  Ok i am done lol

24 hours before a storm or in the chats I do not mind, but when there is still uncertainty, I can't give you an answer. But yes, thank you, I like this idea. Lol