February 12th-14th Storm Potential

shabsies wrote:

deadrabbit79 wrote:

shabsies wrote:Maybe we should take Godzilla down form the top, I don't think this is going to any Godzilla form what I'm hearing now. More like a nuisance snowstorm for most of us from NYC and East (including Long Long Island and the Jersey Coast).

What exactly are you hearing and from who?

Sorry, I should have said it seems since all the talk of rain and mixing in the forum is leaning me towards that reasoning of a nuisance snowstorm .

Nah, no apologies needed. Its fun/annoying to watch the models waver back and forth. Even with mixing we should all see a nice snowfall amount from the sounds of it.

There will be mixing with some rain with this storm ! But its early to say where at this time this is a very tough storm to predict I think it will be radar watching with this one!

Mets Boy we are going to sweat this one out I think being on the north shore just might save us again when all said and done I mean we at lease need a 6+ before we get into any rain pattern

NAM running.

Accuweather breaking out the b-word

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/winter-storm-aims-for-northeast-thursday/23156019

Dang NJ thats just north of me and that pink is so very close to me, I hope the b word shifts south a bit like 30 miles.

And that 12-18, is pretty far north, we have seen models that bring that much right down to the coast. I bet their maps change a few times between now and tomorrow night, and whoever said it will be radar watching I agree nowcast storm.

EURO snow map just updated on pro

Nice snow map, see the heaviest is much more south than what accu is showing, not my much but as I said for me it would only need to be like 30 miles or so. 9-12 is still great but something tells me late models will show a whole lot more.

SREF took a noticeable shift NW, still not in prime range yet to take it seriously, same with the NAM, at 0z tonight will be in better spot to take more serious

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html

Better look at CMC 850s, note the west to east orientation of rain/snow line, could be a case where DC/PHI cash in on huge amnts meanwhile NYC/BOS mixes, just that type of setup...

Winter storm watches going up in Mid-Hudson valley a foot plus looking good right now!

Plenty of now casting on this baby!!

This makes a lot of sense.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

Where's that facepalm graphic.

It's digging more at 42.

Winter Storm Watch up for me on LI

southern WC and NYC are always last, i dunno why.

So when do we lock this in with tonights runs

mets, i looking at nws map i dont see anything for LI?

LP is similar track despite trough going negative quicker, precip shield is slightly further west but looks less intense, the upper levels are warmer for the area.

Looking good for LI but sharp cut offs NW

18z NAM in it's somewhat long range, still not looking right given upper levels. Still prefer European guidance.

sroc not sure what u mean? less snow north and west of LI? I thought it was the opposite> Im confused.

I def buy that at this point. Tom

Ahh yes we all have WSW now in NY yay!

4-8 inches?

It's a tick west comparing it to 12z run side by side on pro, also slightly warmer, precip further NW and heavier precip further west, CCB doesn't look good on this run and it's much drier, does not look correct and like I said off hour NAM that's been waffling and inconsistent at best over rock solid EURO runs side by side. Nope.