Re: 02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions

by **amugs** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:10 pm

tigernumba1 wrote:I know the nam has thrown out some ridiculous numbers but it has been consistent in doing so for many runs now. Maybe it is on to something

The NAM has been pretty consistent with this storm since the other night.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:11 pm

1z RAP

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by tigernumba1 Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:12 pm

amugs wrote:
tigernumba1 wrote:I know the nam has thrown out some ridiculous numbers but it has been consistent in doing so for many runs now. Maybe it is on to something

The NAM has been pretty consistent with this storm since the other night.

I know I think coastal areas may be in for a surprise! At least I hope so lol

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:12 pm

Scullybutcher wrote:
Ahh. I used to love going out to the bar on the evening of a snow storm. PJ Horse Feathers Thirsty Thursdays 10 bucks all you can drink. I forget who but someone in here is from the Port Jeff area who might know the place.

I remember that place. Lol. He'll rides. Lmao pulling the tree branch out of the radiator while talking to the cop. Sroc those were the days. [/quote]

I knew you were on here reading Scully. LOL GREAT times. I am out ladies and gents until the early morning hrs. Good luck to you all with your snow totals.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:12 pm

Wow

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:13 pm

00z RGEM CCB (tomorrow night)

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by **amugs** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:13 pm

Dtone wrote:maybe NWS was on to something when they went with the high totals while everyone else was dropping their numbers.

DT - they would not have sent in their H Recon plane in if they did not think this storm would be severe not bad but severe and possibly historic. It all makes sense.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:14 pm

Frank you stole my thunder, was literally about to post that.

by **amugs** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:15 pm

Frank we get plastered with those CCB's in NJ and HV the low is sub 980 - Jesus h - intense!!

by tigernumba1 Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:15 pm

Frank you mentioned earlier this storm may track more east to follow the warmer ocean temps. Do you think we can see that in the models tonight? Looks like some models are already going more east and more snowy!

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:15 pm

Look at the clipper over the GL phase into the storm

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by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:17 pm

ha mugs I said that last night, I had a feeling it had a reason. The latest model run looks warm in middle part.

by **rb924119** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:17 pm

Gotta watch to see just HOW MUCH phasing occurs, because if too much occurs it will "suck" the low even closer to the coast.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:17 pm

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:18 pm

tigernumba1 wrote:Frank you mentioned earlier this storm may track more east to follow the warmer ocean temps. Do you think we can see that in the models tonight? Looks like some models are already going more east and more snowy!

No, track is set, the trend seems to be colder but I definately wouldn't say east.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:19 pm

RGEM snow map

NICE

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by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:19 pm

Frank this is not a weenie question but a serious one… do you think this storm could end up being a HECS for us area wide?

by **rb924119** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:20 pm

Happy model watching everybody, I'm going to try and get some sleep because tomorrow and tomorrow night are gonna be longggggggg ahahaha I'll be back tomorrow....CHEERS!!!

by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:20 pm

NJ the candaian brings in alot of warm air i dont like that. Is that a trend thought it was colder?

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:20 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
tigernumba1 wrote:Frank you mentioned earlier this storm may track more east to follow the warmer ocean temps. Do you think we can see that in the models tonight? Looks like some models are already going more east and more snowy!

No, track is set, the trend seems to be colder but I definately wouldn't say east.

Track is not set. NAM would disagree with the EURO. CMC as well. Models are lost. It is nowcasting. And you saw that WPC thinks this tracks well east of where the EURO has it

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:20 pm

CNJ/NYC 1 foot here. Might compact a bit due to sleet and period of rain.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:NJ the candaian brings in alot of warm air i dont like that. Is that a trend thought it was colder?

cmc is not out yet

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:21 pm

rb924119 wrote:Happy model watching everybody, I'm going to try and get some sleep because tomorrow and tomorrow night are gonna be longggggggg ahahaha I'll be back tomorrow....CHEERS!!!

Goodnight sir

by **Scullybutcher** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:21 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Look at the clipper over the GL phase into the storm

Would that pull the storm west?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:22 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
tigernumba1 wrote:Frank you mentioned earlier this storm may track more east to follow the warmer ocean temps. Do you think we can see that in the models tonight? Looks like some models are already going more east and more snowy!

No, track is set, the trend seems to be colder but I definately wouldn't say east.

Track is not set. NAM would disagree with the EURO. CMC as well. Models are lost. It is nowcasting. And you saw that WPC thinks this tracks well east of where the EURO has it

I mean generally, would take a massive shift IMO to put it somewhere where it gives the coast all snow. There is decent consensus about the track as of now, sure it's a nowcast but I am fairly confident in where the heavy snow axis is and where the mixing is.

by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:23 pm

Sorry whatever the lat model that you posted that was animated. Showed a long period of ice and rain for my area and NYC. What happened?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Sorry whatever the lat model that you posted that was animated. Showed a long period of ice and rain for my area and NYC. What happened?

CMC has consistently shown this, improvement over 18z run which was downright dry snowwise.

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