Re: 02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions

by **jmanley32** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:23 pm

Sorry whatever the lat model that you posted that was animated. Showed a long period of ice and rain for my area and NYC. What happened?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Sorry whatever the lat model that you posted that was animated. Showed a long period of ice and rain for my area and NYC. What happened?

CMC has consistently shown this, improvement over 18z run which was downright dry snowwise.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:25 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
tigernumba1 wrote:Frank you mentioned earlier this storm may track more east to follow the warmer ocean temps. Do you think we can see that in the models tonight? Looks like some models are already going more east and more snowy!

No, track is set, the trend seems to be colder but I definately wouldn't say east.

Track is not set. NAM would disagree with the EURO. CMC as well. Models are lost. It is nowcasting. And you saw that WPC thinks this tracks well east of where the EURO has it

I mean generally, would take a massive shift IMO to put it somewhere where it gives the coast all snow. There is decent consensus about the track as of now, sure it's a nowcast but I am fairly confident in where the heavy snow axis is and where the mixing is.

Oh yea the initial push will be warm, but if the ultimate track is further east, the CCB will be over us. Not EPA. That is where the difference in track matters

by **Artechmetals** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:26 pm

NYC schools open , crazy lol

by **RJB8525** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:27 pm

FYI NYC schools are open tomorrow I think no matter what

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:27 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
tigernumba1 wrote:Frank you mentioned earlier this storm may track more east to follow the warmer ocean temps. Do you think we can see that in the models tonight? Looks like some models are already going more east and more snowy!

No, track is set, the trend seems to be colder but I definately wouldn't say east.

Track is not set. NAM would disagree with the EURO. CMC as well. Models are lost. It is nowcasting. And you saw that WPC thinks this tracks well east of where the EURO has it

I mean generally, would take a massive shift IMO to put it somewhere where it gives the coast all snow. There is decent consensus about the track as of now, sure it's a nowcast but I am fairly confident in where the heavy snow axis is and where the mixing is.

Oh yea the initial push will be warm, but if the ultimate track is further east, the CCB will be over us. Not EPA. That is where the difference in track matters

True, I'm talking to the people way on the coast that are hoping for a huge trend and I don't want them to get excited over something that very likely won't happen. IMO the biggest shift that would happen would be the heaviest snow axis shifts from the EURO area (NEPA, NWNJ, HV) over to just around but still generally NW of I-95.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:28 pm

Teachers are going to bring that new mayor into a NYC alleyway and...

by tigernumba1 Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:28 pm

its crazy how models are still in disagreement with only hours left until the storm hits

by **amugs** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:28 pm

NYC public schools will be OPEN - DeBlasio is a jackass - Chuck should have pissed on him when he had the chance - sorry for th rant - I feel better now.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:29 pm

HRRR snow totals through 11am tomorrow. Holy christ

02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions - Page 22 Post-770-0-38660000-1392261842

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:30 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:HRRR snow totals through 11am tomorrow. Holy christ

Still not buying the shift of the heavy snow axis from SSW to NNE all of a sudden hard right to SW to NE axis, that is wrong IMO.

by tigernumba1 Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:30 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:HRRR snow totals through 11am tomorrow. Holy christ

that run kills central and western LI!!

by **essexcountypete** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:31 pm

tigernumba1 wrote:its crazy how models are still in disagreement with only hours left until the storm hits

and its crazy how often that has happened with storms this winter

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:32 pm

This is the biggest nowcast storm of the year.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:33 pm

tigernumba1 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:HRRR snow totals through 11am tomorrow. Holy christ

that run kills central and western LI!!

Don't bet on it.

by tigernumba1 Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:36 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
tigernumba1 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:HRRR snow totals through 11am tomorrow. Holy christ

that run kills central and western LI!!

Don't bet on it.

Im certainly not betting on it but it shows a chance and this winter has thrown many curve balls so...

by tigernumba1 Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:37 pm

what model runs are up next and when

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:37 pm

00z UKIE is colder, maps soon

00z GFS is also colder, but I'm throwing that model out for this storm.

by **amugs** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:37 pm

NYC public schools will be OPEN - DeBlasio is a jackass - Chuck should have pissed on him when he had the chance - sorry for th rant - I feel better now.

by MinaMak Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:37 pm

Yea, but that's what the current radar is actually showing, a more se --> nw trend rather than a more n/s trend

by MinaMak Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:38 pm

*sw --> ne trend, sorry

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:39 pm

MinaMak wrote:Yea, but that's what the current radar is actually showing, a more se --> nw trend rather than a more n/s trend

Agree. And welcome.

by **amugs** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:40 pm

Hey snowing down by you yet Ace, Skins?? - reports of snow in Tons River? ground covered.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:41 pm

People from central VA on FB say they have between 8-12 inches of snow already

by **Quietace** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:41 pm

amugs wrote:Hey snowing down by you yet Ace, Skins?? - reports of snow in Tons River? ground covered.

Ill go look out the window.

by **Artechmetals** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:41 pm

frank , E Che cosa? Mettere i Loro piedi il suo asino

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Feb 12, 2014 10:42 pm

The snow is about 30 minutes away from Ryan

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